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602
FXUS64 KLIX 190900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL LIKELY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL ACT
UPON THE AMPLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR BY
FRIDAY...AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SERVE TO MINIMIZE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS BY THE DEPARTED MID WEEK EASTERN CONUS BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKNESS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN ACTIVITY COULD
EXTEND AS LATE AS 06Z BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. AM

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND UNTIL THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS WEAK BUT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. AM

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  92  71 /  50  30  20  10
ASD  90  71  91  70 /  50  30  30  10
MSY  90  74  91  74 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  72 /  50  30  30  10
PQL  89  70  91  70 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$