Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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623
FXUS64 KLIX 310736
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
236 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK. WITHOUT ANY SKILL
SCORING TO MOVE A TEMPERATURE ONE DEGREE OR TWO...HAVE OPTED TO
USE A MAJORITY OF THE ONGOING FCAST. FRONT TO THE NORTH HAS
STALLED AND WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE LERADO TX AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS LANDING ON OUR DOORSTEP WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK 30% CHANCE OF SH/TS OVER THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE AREA WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT MOVES NEAR OUR
AREA. THE DISTURBANCE THEN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA WHERE IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT
BY THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

A STRONGER PUSH BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED SAT MORNING
LOOKS TO FORCE THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO LOOKS TO BRIDGE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT CAUSING CAPPING
TO DECREASE SH/TS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE WITH THIS FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH BY SAT AND SHIFTING AROUND TO AN
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY...OTHER THAN KHUM...ALL LOCATIONS VFR WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS. MOST TERMINALS STILL SEEING AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS OF
WIND AND A SEVERAL DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WHICH IS
HOLDING OFF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS STILL BACK AROUND
KSHV...SO THEY MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND HANDLE ANY FOG WITH
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. IF FOG DEVELOPS...IT WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z
OR SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTING AT FOG FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ASSESS AGAIN AS
06Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES A LITTLE WHILE FROM NOW. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 10-12 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THE WIND
FIELD SOMEWHAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN
MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT WE WILL
NEED EITHER EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  30
BTR  83  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  30
ASD  81  59  80  64 /  10   0  20  20
MSY  81  64  81  67 /  10   0  20  20
GPT  78  61  77  65 /  10   0  20  20
PQL  80  60  79  63 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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