Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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797
FXUS64 KLIX 270053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY...STABLE AND WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER US ARE THE
HIGHLIGHTS OF TONIGHT/S SOUNDING. WARMER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA...PRIMARILY BELOW 22000 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 3
TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THERE WERE THREE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...INCLUDING THE SURFACE INVERSION THAT IS
FORMING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 0.50 INCHES. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WERE
OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHETHER THAT BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
WAS AT THE SURFACE OR FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID-LEVELS. A PEAK
WIND OF 116 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 38450 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE
BALLOON WAS IN FLIGHT 93 MINUTES AND WENT 85 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM
OUR OFFICE ATTAINING A HEIGHT OF 18.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND
BEFORE BURSTING ALONG THE COAST AT THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT 2 PM WITH A COLD FRONT TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...SHREVEPORT AND SAN ANTONIO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS WHERE
COOLER WATER WAS CHILLING THE AIR...TO 70 DEGREES AT BATON ROUGE.
THE AIR IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

SHORT TERM...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...JUST SOME WIND...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RE-CHILL THE AIR...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL NOT
BE VERY NOTICEABLE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ONLY BRIEFLY BECOMING CALM
TOWARD SUNRISE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE THIS
MORNINGS LOWS IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL ONLY
TOP OUT BETWEEN 55 AND 60...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER NORTHSHORE AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL BOTTOMING OUT AROUND FREEZING. THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO FREEZING OR BELOW SEVERAL TIMES AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. 35

LONG TERM...

PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WASHES OUT FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN IS RATHER WEAK...AND ONLY SMALL
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WILL USE A BLEND OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
FORECAST TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS AT KNEW MAINLY
AFTER 27/06Z.

MEFFER

MARINE...

RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
GULF TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING DUE TO RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION PRODUCTS
ISSUED THIS MORNING TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST WIND FORECAST. THE
MOST NOTABLE IS SIMPLY A SLIGHTLY EARLIER STARTING TIME FOR THE
EXERCISE CAUTION AS SW WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
BATON ROUGE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
WINDFIELD BEGINNING TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH MOVING FROM NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TO NORTHEAST FROM
TOMORROW TO THIS WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
GETS UNDERWAY SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH EAST. IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF THIS FRONT ACTUALLY REACHES THE COAST. AT THIS POINT...IT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE AT LEAST A 100 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  41  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  59  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  47  59  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  42  59  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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