Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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989
FXUS64 KLIX 182037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE GULF YSTRY...BACK INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOST ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE CWA ARE SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST...A FEW HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS. MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LA/TX BORDER APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...MORESO ON THE COASTAL INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERMILLION BAY AND THE TX BORDER. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME BLOWOVER FROM
THAT FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE IN A A
DECAYING PHASE. SO ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT WITH NOT TOO HIGH OF
QPF OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEFOREHAND.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POSSIBILITY IF LOWER 60S
FOR MORNING LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST MS ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD
FLORIDA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS.  WITH STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE MOST
ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH HEATING GOING ON TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING REPORTED YET.
MAIN CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MESOSCALE
MODELING TENDS TO PICK UP ONE OF THESE AREAS...BUT NOT BOTH. IN
EITHER CASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT AND KASD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG IN OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  67  88 /  30   0  10  10
BTR  68  86  70  87 /  50  10  10  10
ASD  74  84  76  87 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  73  84  76  89 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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