Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-170408-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE WEST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER
NEAR JACKSBORO HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE JACKSBORO FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 6.8 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID 10/15/2014 - 1/14/2015

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
WEST FORK TRINITY RIVER

 BOYD          16.0  5.8  6.0  7.5  8.4 10.4 12.2 13.0 14.0 17.6
 FORT WORTH    20.0  1.4  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.8  2.0  2.3  2.8  3.5
 GRAND PRAIRIE 30.0  5.2  5.8  6.1  7.0  7.8  8.2  9.5 11.1 14.1
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BRIDGEPORT    12.0  2.2  2.3  2.7  3.2  3.7  4.2  5.9  6.5  7.5
CLEAR FORK TRINITY RIVER
 WEATHERFORD   15.0  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4
 FORT WORTH    15.0  9.1  9.2  9.2  9.3  9.3  9.4  9.5  9.8 10.1
DENTON CREEK
 JUSTIN        10.0  3.2  3.4  3.5  3.8  4.2  4.8  6.5  8.6 11.0
ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER
 GAINESVILLE   22.0  4.3  4.8  5.3  5.7  6.4  6.8  7.1  7.6  8.8
 CARROLLTON     8.0  4.0  4.1  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.5  4.7  5.2  5.8
CLEAR CREEK
 SANGER        25.0  6.5  6.5  6.6  7.2  7.7  8.1  8.7  9.5 11.5
SISTER GROVE CREEK
 BLUE RIDGE    24.0 11.4 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.0 14.7 16.8
EAST FORK TRINITY RIVER
 MCKINNEY      16.0  5.0  5.9  7.1  8.3 10.1 11.2 12.9 17.1 18.8
 CRANDALL      18.0  2.5  2.5  2.8  3.0  3.2  3.4  3.7  4.0  5.9
CHAMBERS CREEK
 RICE          24.0  4.9  7.4 10.8 12.5 13.5 14.9 21.6 27.1 28.9
TRINITY RIVER
 DALLAS        30.0 20.5 21.4 22.5 23.9 24.8 26.7 27.3 28.5 32.0
 ROSSER        31.0  7.8  9.0  9.9 10.6 12.0 13.0 15.2 16.9 19.9
 TRINIDAD      33.0 14.8 14.8 16.0 18.0 19.3 21.3 25.9 33.0 40.1
 LONG LAKE     35.0 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 17.2 19.1 22.6 27.7 37.2

LOCATION FS(FT) 90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
-------- ------ ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
LK WORTH 597.0 592.3 592.4 592.6 592.7 592.9 593.1 593.3 593.7 594.0
LK ARLINGTON   543.5 544.0 544.4 544.9 545.5 546.4 548.3 549.6 550.2

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$




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