Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TEXAS IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
TRINITY...BRAZOS...SULPHUR AND SABINE RIVER BASINS BASED ON CURRENT
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS HAS RECORDED BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE START OF 2014...WITH MAJORITY OF THE
REGION MEASURING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE
JANUARY 1ST. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AFTER SEEING A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN LATE 2013.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND MANY
STREAMFLOW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL BASEFLOW. MOST OF THE
LAKES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RECHARGE FROM RUNOFF
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE MAJORITY OF LAKES IN THE REGION ARE
BELOW 75 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOL STORAGE LEVELS AND A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE NORTH TEXAS PRECIPITATION 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...THROUGH THE
SPRING MONTHS OF 2014...SUGGEST THAT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW RAINFALL. UNLESS NORTH TEXAS
RECEIVES SOME ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DETORIATE AND LAKE
LEVELS RECEDE AS WATER DEMANDS INCREASE WITH WARMER WEATHER.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON NORTH TEXAS. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS...AND HISTORICAL CREST
INFORMATION FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS. TO FIND THIS INFORMATION...
CLICK ON EACH POINT OF INTEREST ON THE AHPS PAGE. THE SITE ALSO
CONTAINS LINKS TO OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

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