Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CST TUE MAR 10 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TEXAS IS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
TRINITY...BRAZOS...SULPHUR AND RIVER BASINS BASED ON CURRENT
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN. MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS HAS RECORDED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS SINCE THE START OF 2014...WITH MAJORITY OF THE REGION
MEASURING BETWEEN 50 AND 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SEVERE TO EXECPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO EARLY 2015.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
AND MANY STREAMFLOW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
BASEFLOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS UPPER SABINE RIVER BASIN WHERE SOIL
MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH THAT THE BASINS ABOVE LAKE TAWAKONI
THAT STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE DRASTICALLY IMPROVED.

MOST OF THE LAKES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RECHARGE
FROM RUNOFF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE MAJORITY OF LAKES IN
THE REGION ARE BELOW 75 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOL STORAGE
LEVELS AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE NORTH TEXAS PRECIPITATION 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...THROUGH THE
SPRING MONTHS OF 2015...SUGGEST THAT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW RAINFALL. UNLESS NORTH TEXAS
RECEIVES SOME ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DETORIATE AND
LAKE LEVELS RECEDE AS WATER DEMANDS INCREASE WITH WARMER WEATHER.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON NORTH TEXAS. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS...AND HISTORICAL CREST
INFORMATION FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS. TO FIND THIS INFORMATION...
CLICK ON EACH POINT OF INTEREST ON THE AHPS PAGE. THE SITE ALSO
CONTAINS LINKS TO OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.



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