National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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FGUS74 KFWD 161824
ESFFWD


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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE SOUTH FORK OF THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
QUINLAN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE QUINLAN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.3 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 5/15/2013 - 8/14/2013

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SOUTH FORK SABINE RIVER
 QUINLAN       15.0  4.3  4.9  5.7  7.1  8.3 10.1 11.5 15.0 16.1
COWLEECH FORK SABINE RIVER
 GREENVILLE    14.0  3.9  4.3  4.8  6.3 10.7 13.5 16.6 16.8 17.0

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
