Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FGUS74 KFWD 181650
ESFFWD

TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-

337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-TXC231-397-190450-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE
SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH FORK OF THE SABINE RIVER
NEAR QUINLAN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE QUINLAN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.1 FEET DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 12/18/2014-03/19/2015

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SOUTH FORK SABINE RIVER
 QUINLAN       15.0  9.9 12.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6
COWLEECH FORK SABINE RIVER
 GREENVILLE    14.0  4.9 11.1 14.6 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$



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