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367
FXUS64 KEPZ 170933
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION STARTING LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE GETS
REESTABLISHED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST 90
DEGREE READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED TODAY...ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
OVER THE EAST AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEST...SO GENERALLY UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY AS
WELL WITH A SHIFT TO THE EAST EARLY AND THEN S TO SE DURING THE
DAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES FRI-SAT AS DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST MOVES ONSHORE. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SLIGHTLY DRIER
SAT THAN NAM OR ECMWF. THERE WILL BE MOISTURE COMING AT CWA FROM
BAJA AND THE GULF WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. PW`S OF HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST TO ABOUT EIGHT
TENTHS OF AN INCH EAST. THE BEST PVA WILL COME FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUITE THERE TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS...BUT KEPT IN 10-20 POPS FOR WESTERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. BEST INSTABILITY WHICH ONLY SHOWS LI`S OF -1C TO -2C WILL
BE OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY 18Z
WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
FRI NIGHT WILL HAVE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE COMING INTO PLACE SO INCLUDED AT LEAST 10 POPS EVERYWHERE
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD SEE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING.

UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
AZ DURING THE DAY SAT. AS STATED EARLIER...GFS DRIEST...BUT IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW PW`S AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PW`S OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH NEGATIVE LI`S. WITH TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF
CWA...CANNOT LEAVE FORECAST DRY AND WENT WITH 20 POPS FAR WEST AND
30-40 POPS EAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAPERED BACK POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT TO MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA AS TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS KICK IN SUNDAY HELPING
TO DRY REGION OUT. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SAT...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE
FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH AT KELP ON TUE WITH SIMILAR TEMPS FOR WED.
BIGGEST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WED
AND THU AS POSSIBLE NEAR ADVISORY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF NEXT
UPPER TROUGH. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MODELS...BUT TREND HAS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RECENT SIMILAR SYSTEMS HAS BEEN A SLOWER
MOVEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC-FEW250 THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5-10KTS AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE S TO SE 18Z-03Z BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE E AFT 03Z AT 5-15KTS...STRONGEST ON WESTERN MTN
SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 7
TO 15 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS...A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE SACS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL START TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SACS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY GETS INTO
THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLY THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  56  80  58  77 /   0   0   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           77  48  78  51  75 /   0   0  10  20  40
LAS CRUCES              80  52  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              77  49  76  54  74 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              54  38  56  43  56 /   0   0  10  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  49  75  53  71 /   0   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             74  47  70  46  67 /   0   0  20  20  20
DEMING                  81  46  76  50  75 /   0   0  10  20  20
LORDSBURG               81  51  71  49  73 /   0   0  10  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  55  81  57  76 /   0   0   0  10  30
DELL CITY               76  46  79  52  75 /   0   0  10  20  40
FORT HANCOCK            82  53  82  55  81 /   0   0  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              75  48  74  51  71 /   0   0   0  20  40
FABENS                  81  53  80  54  78 /   0   0   0  20  30
SANTA TERESA            81  51  79  55  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  55  79  58  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           78  42  78  47  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
HATCH                   81  49  77  52  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
COLUMBUS                81  53  76  55  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
OROGRANDE               80  48  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
MAYHILL                 65  42  68  47  63 /   0   0  20  30  30
MESCALERO               66  40  65  45  61 /   0   0  20  30  40
TIMBERON                64  40  64  43  59 /   0   0  10  20  30
WINSTON                 74  44  68  49  67 /   0   0  20  20  30
HILLSBORO               76  50  72  50  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               78  46  73  48  72 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            72  42  62  42  61 /   0   0  20  20  30
HURLEY                  77  48  72  48  70 /   0   0  20  20  20
CLIFF                   80  46  70  43  70 /   0   0  20  20  30
MULE CREEK              78  37  69  40  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 78  48  72  47  70 /   0   0  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  82  52  72  50  72 /   0   0  10  20  20
HACHITA                 80  46  73  48  75 /   0   0  10  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  51  75  51  75 /   0   0  10  20  20
CLOVERDALE              78  48  72  46  72 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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