Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
108
FXUS64 KEPZ 300950
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
349 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GIVE
THE BORDERLAND ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TAKES OVER. A WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...GIVE
THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS A MORE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
THEN MORE ON SUNDAY...BECOMING WINDY AND PERHAPS A BIT DUSTY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWLANDS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT MID/LONG TERM
FORECAST HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY...NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN MODEL DIFFICULTIES WITH OPEN TROUGH/CLOSED AND CUTOFF LOWS AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER US. INCOMING WEAKENING TROUGH
HAS PUSHED HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND REACH AT LEAST THE CONT DIVIDE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT
SUGGESTS SOME DECENT WIND GUST POTENTIAL (30-35 MPH) FOR WEST SLOPES
OF TERRAIN AND PUT THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE... MOSTLY NEAR THE
SURFACE AND ABOVE 500MB ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP WITH SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOOKING AT PROG SOUNDINGS DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING AT ALL FOR
THE EASTERN CWA BUT LEAVE LOW POPS IN THERE. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MORE POWERFUL UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL THEN DRIVE THE WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY
ON THIS TROUGH BEHAVIOR. GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH NOW...MOVING IT TO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN TROUGH THE CWA BY MID DAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
OUTLIER AND KEEPS THE MUCH SLOWER CLOSED OFF LOW SOLUTION. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION.

TROUGH IMPACTS...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TURN SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
A COOL FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY THE STRONGEST MID LEVELS WINDS WILL REACH
THE AREA AND SWING THE SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST. EXPECT WINDS INTO
THE WINDY CATEGORY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS MAXING OUT AT ABOUT 35-50
KTS. THAT COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CLOUDS IN THE
AREA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STRONG MIXING AND LACK OF STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
COMBINED WITH A STRONG 100 KT JET AND RRQ OVER THIS AREA...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE MID DAY TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL END. OTHER CHANGE
IS WITH THE UPPER FLOW NOW NORTHERLY...THE STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...INSTEAD A WEAKER SIDE DOOR FRONT FROM THE
NORTH DROPS OVER THE AREA. STILL GOOD COOLING FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO HELP END THE SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z...
VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. P6SM SKC...WITH INCREASING
LAYERS FL200 AND ABOVE SPREADING WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FIRE ZONES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE SOME AND SLIGHTLY
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST SHOT
FROM DEMING WEST. A MORE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE TROUGH MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDY CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DESERT. THE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WEST TEXAS ZONES.

MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30% TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE 30S FRIDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL RANGE FROM 25-35% THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  52  73  54  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           76  50  71  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              77  47  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  47  71  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              62  31  54  34  58 /   0   0  10   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  46  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             73  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10   0
DEMING                  78  45  71  48  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
LORDSBURG               77  44  71  47  76 /   0   0  10  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  51  73  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               78  44  68  47  74 /   0   0  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  51  73  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              76  52  71  54  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  79  46  73  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  47  72  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  49  71  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           77  35  71  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  43  71  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                79  50  72  52  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
OROGRANDE               77  49  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 67  35  61  39  64 /   0   0  10   0  10
MESCALERO               67  32  61  36  62 /   0   0  10   0  10
TIMBERON                66  33  60  36  63 /   0   0  10   0  10
WINSTON                 70  39  65  42  69 /   0   0  20  20  10
HILLSBORO               74  44  69  49  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
SPACEPORT               75  41  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  42  66  41  72 /   0   0  20  20  10
HURLEY                  76  44  70  46  73 /   0   0  20  10   0
CLIFF                   76  33  69  39  74 /   0   0  10  20  10
MULE CREEK              74  29  68  36  74 /   0   0  10  20  10
FAYWOOD                 75  47  70  49  77 /   0   0  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  78  46  71  49  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 79  44  72  47  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          79  45  72  47  76 /   0   0  20  10   0
CLOVERDALE              78  48  73  49  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER








USA.gov is the U.S government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.