Area Forecast Discussion
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439
FXUS64 KEPZ 012014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
214 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THEN WILL COOL DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS COMBINE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BUILD UPS.

STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND
REFORM MORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO MAYBE
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ON THURSDAY...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH WHICH WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE MORE ISOLATED
THAN SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKENED OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO A 130 TO A
160 PERCENT OF NORMAL...INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE WEEKEND. OVERALL NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY
ACTIVE AND WET WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z - 03/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72 100  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  96  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  98  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  97  66  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  78  49  75  51 /   0   0   0  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  97  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  93  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  99  63  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  97  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  99  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66 100  67  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  99  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  93  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  66  97  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  99  70  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  96  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           62  96  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  98  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  96  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  97  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  85  55  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               55  86  56  84  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                52  86  53  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 57  87  58  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  92  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  96  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  90  56  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  94  61  94  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  95  58  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              51  92  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  66  95  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 61  97  62  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  95  61  94  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              62  93  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





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