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887
FXUS64 KEPZ 201124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY HAS LIFTED OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE BORDERLAND TO
BECOME DIFFUSE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST AND IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NOW...ON IT`S WAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. MODELS
NOW BACKING OFF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE PLUME
SLACKENS OFF. QUICK LOOK AT WRF SYNTHETIC CLOUD PROG SHOWS PLUME
REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO BUT BECOMING QUITE DIFFUSE. PW`S RANGING
FROM .9" NW TO 1.3" SE AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE 24 HOUR DELAY IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
REAL CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESUME FROM THE SOUTH
AND PW`S WILL INCREASE BACK 1.2"-1.5" BOTH DAYS...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. UNLESS MODELS CHANGE MORE THROUGHOUT
TODAY...MAY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS. MUCAPES
RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME...MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOWING JUST SOME WEAK SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AS AIRMASS WILL BE MORE TROPICAL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY WILL INITIALLY PUSH MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST BUT VARIOUS
MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS SOME SHOULD MODELS INDICATE MORE CONSENSUS ON MOISTURE
CONTENT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS POORLY DEFINED BUT LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
GENLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN150 FEW LAYERS TO
250. DVLPG AFT 17Z OVER MOUNTAINS...BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA
BKN100CB TOPS 420. ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 020. CONDS DVLPG
OVER LOWLANDS AFT 21Z BUT REMAINING MORE ISOLATED. WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. STORMS STILL SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE
MORNING ON BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL RESUME FLOWING NORTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BOTH THUR/FRI. A BIT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ENOUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TO 40-50% FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  72  89  69  87 /  20  20  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           88  67  84  64  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              91  68  87  64  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              90  66  86  63  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              72  48  68  49  66 /  50  20  60  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  66  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             84  58  80  57  78 /  50  20  40  40  40
DEMING                  90  67  88  63  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               90  67  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  71  87  68  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
DELL CITY               92  68  89  65  87 /  20  20  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            90  71  87  68  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              87  66  84  65  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
FABENS                  91  69  88  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            91  69  87  66  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  68  87  65  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           91  68  87  64  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HATCH                   90  67  87  63  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                92  69  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               91  68  87  65  85 /  20  20  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 77  55  73  54  71 /  40  20  60  40  50
MESCALERO               80  55  76  54  74 /  40  20  60  40  50
TIMBERON                81  56  77  55  75 /  40  20  60  40  50
WINSTON                 81  52  77  51  75 /  50  20  40  40  50
HILLSBORO               86  62  82  60  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               90  67  85  63  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  58  80  56  78 /  50  20  40  40  50
HURLEY                  86  61  82  59  80 /  30  20  40  40  40
CLIFF                   88  56  83  57  83 /  30  20  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              87  55  82  55  81 /  20  20  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 86  61  82  59  80 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  90  67  85  62  84 /  20  20  40  40  40
HACHITA                 93  66  87  62  86 /  20  20  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  65  83  60  82 /  20  20  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              87  64  81  61  81 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








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