Area Forecast Discussion
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823
FXUS64 KEPZ 302014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
214 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES CLOSE BY TO OUR SOUTH. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN IMPACTS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN A BIT
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT PRESENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES DEPICT ACTIVE SUB
TROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN U.S.A..
MEANWHILE PAC JET ENTERING THE NW STATES SUSTAINS BROAD UL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN OUTLINES A WEAK BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CA AND WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WITH A NEARLY CUT OFF UL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA CA. WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
TRANSPORTING SUBTLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND UL MOISTURE UP OUR
WAY...WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN INGREDIENT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THOUGH
TUESDAY. DRIER MORE TYPICAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN
STARTING WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A BROAD BUT WEAK MID LATITUDE TROUGH
EXPECTED THOUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK. ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD SEND A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT OUR WAY FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN STARTING
SUNDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.

IMPACTS:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING. GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MINOR LOW MENTIONED ABOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY...YET CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. INDICATIONS
ARE HOWEVER THAT A SUFFICIENT MID AND UL MOISTURE INTRUSION WILL
EXIST...SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER
AREA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NM BOOT HEEL MAY ACTUALLY SEE
ACTIVITY BY DAYS END. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS LAST FEW DAYS WILL
ALLOW FOR ONLY VIRGA OVER MOST AREA LOWLANDS. ISOLD LIGHT MTN
WETTING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - BREEZY TO WINDY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDY ALL
AREAS LIKELY THURSDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
EITHER DAY AT THIS TIME. LIGHT BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL RE ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STATES...AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. IT WILL COME
DOWN TO A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN CONTRIBUTION FROM ATTENDANT SFC
LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MIX DOWN EFFICIENCY FROM THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. WED SFC LOW PRESSURE FALLS BELOW 1000 MB
WED AFTERNOON...WITH H6 WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER THE REGION. ON
THURSDAY H6 WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55 KTS...BUT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHERN NM/W TX.

GUSTY WINDS WEST SLOPE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF THE PAC TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEK...A BACK DOOD COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS DOWN WEST SLOPES
OF AREA MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME.

HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER NEXT DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 TO AREA. ISOLD VRB25G40KT -TSRA
BKN050-070 MAINLY MTS AND WEST OF DIVIDE THRU 18Z...THEN GENERALLY
MTS AND NEAR BORDER AFT 18Z. WINDS GENERALLY W TO SW 5-15G20KTS
EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR TSMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DOMINATE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DROP MIDWEEK.
MAY HAVE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BRING A QUICK INCREASE TO MOISTURE
FOR SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HOT...DRY AIR RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 57  81  56  83  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  75  49  80  53 /  10  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  79  49  82  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              48  79  49  82  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  58  39  60  40 /  20  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  79  51  80  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  72  46  74  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  80  48  82  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               47  79  45  80  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  79  56  83  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  81  48  83  52 /  10  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  80  52  84  55 /  10  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  74  53  79  54 /  10  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  80  52  83  57 /  10  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  80  52  83  53 /  10  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  78  54  81  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  79  45  81  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  80  48  82  48 /  10  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  79  51  82  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  78  52  82  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  66  46  70  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  67  42  70  42 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                44  66  44  69  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  73  43  74  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               49  76  47  78  46 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               46  80  45  81  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  71  42  71  40 /  10  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  74  47  76  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   43  78  39  79  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              40  78  36  78  34 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  76  47  77  45 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  51  78  48  81  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  80  46  82  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  78  46  81  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              48  76  46  78  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ





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