Area Forecast Discussion
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834
FXUS64 KEPZ 241000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM
DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
BORDERLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE NOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER. HOWEVER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY READINGS WILL AGAIN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO
INDICATES LIGHTER WINDS TODAY BUT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR
BREEZY TOMORROW AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST.

LATEST DATA AND GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT FOR A
POSSIBLE MAJOR WIND EVEN STORM ON SATURDAY. VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOLLOWED BY INCREASING TROUGH/JET
DYNAMICS WILL GENERATE DEEP LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
TRAILING LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW
AND MID LEVEL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN
INDUCING 60 TO 70 KT WIND SPEEDS AT 500 MB BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A SURFACE TO 550 MB DRY LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO MIX DOWNWARD. THUS ALMOST A
CERTAINTY IT WILL BE WINDY ON SATURDAY. AT MOMENT IT IS VERY
LIKELY WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL OF THE CWA
WITH SOME AREAS REACHING WARNING LEVELS. AND DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE GILA REGION.

TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY LOWERING SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES.
LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS ALSO SHOW THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
NEAR THE WINDY CATEGORY THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS ON SATURDAY. THE THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH
AMPLITUDE WEST COAST TROUGH AND DEEP UNUSUALLY BROAD UPPER LOW
TO THE EAST. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE NORTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF SEASONABLY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR. THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
BRING VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE FIRE DANGER REMAINING HIGH TO VERY HIGH. THUS NEAR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  58  88  64  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           80  51  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  52  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              54  42  61  47  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  50  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  48  78  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  78  47  85  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               77  49  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  58  88  64  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               82  48  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            86  56  93  62  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  80  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  81  55  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          78  55  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  46  85  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  48  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                77  53  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               80  51  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  44  72  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               67  41  72  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                65  42  69  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 72  46  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               73  53  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               75  49  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  40  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  73  47  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   73  38  81  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              72  35  78  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  48  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  79  51  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 78  49  85  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  52  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  47  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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