Area Forecast Discussion
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352
FXUS64 KEPZ 241021
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
BORDERLAND THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL TODAY WITH
HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL FRONT
MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHILLY HIGHS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS MOVING OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP. BY
THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING
AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN
THE SHORT TERM...DO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO. MODELS ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT AND EXITING THE REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. FEATURE
SHOWS GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WITH STRONG PVA...VORT CENTER NEAR FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO EL PASO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AREA UNDER LFQ OF 150KT JET TONIGHT. MOISTURE OBVIOUSLY
LACKING BUT WITH CHILLY AIRMASS...ANY BIT OF MOISTURE COULD BE WRUNG
OUT AS PRECIP. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE SAC MTNS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
06Z-12Z PERIOD FOR SNOW. RIGHT NOW DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANY KIND OF
ACCUMULATION BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH MORNING MODEL RUNS. ALSO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SURFACE COOL FRONT IN. COULD SEE BRIEF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTIES. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH ADDITIONAL COLD
AIR BUT WILL INHIBIT ANY WARMING ON TUESDAY. HENCE BOTH
TODAY/TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA WILL HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS A BIT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM
UP SHOULD BEGIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL AND BY
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ACTUALLY
TURN TO THE WEST WITH A BIT STRONGER LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SKC-FEW250. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT SPEEDS OF 12 KTS OR LESS
WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AROUND 18Z. A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ABOUT A RENEWED PUSH OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME NORTHERLY AT
SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLD DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOSTLY DRY BUT COULD
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TONIGHT. IT WILL
LIKELY ALSO CAUSE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL SERVE TO COOL THE REGION A FEW EXTRA DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES DROP MARGINALLY FROM TODAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  30  52  27  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           51  26  49  25  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  25  50  24  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  24  47  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              35  10  33  13  45 /   0  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  25  49  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  22  45  24  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  24  50  22  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  21  51  20  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  29  51  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  51  22  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  28  54  25  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  27  44  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  26  53  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  50  24  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          50  28  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           51  22  49  20  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   52  25  50  23  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  27  50  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  26  49  24  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  14  41  16  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  14  39  13  50 /   0  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  16  39  14  50 /   0  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  19  44  20  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               50  25  46  24  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  21  50  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  19  46  18  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  50  21  45  20  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  16  47  15  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              51  13  46  13  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  25  45  23  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  23  53  22  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 55  22  52  20  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  24  53  22  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              57  25  50  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY








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