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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
648 FXUS64 KEPZ 220853 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 253 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND MAYBE EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY. OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... TWO WORDS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER...WARM/DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AFTERNOON WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY CRITERIA. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THURSDAY... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. CONTINUED VERY DRY...MEANING WILDFIRE CONCERNS ELEVATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SE FLOW ACROSS TX. THIS MAY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. IF SO...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN CWFA. HOWEVER WE EXPECT MOST STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY LINE IS PROGED TO BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA...EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DRYLINE PLACEMENT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN AND POSSIBLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK EAST A BIT WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH...AND ONLY EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THESE TWO AFTERNOONS/EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER ZONES TO THE WEST IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST A BIT. THIS NUDGES THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS OUR EAST ZONE PCPN CHANCES AS THE DRY LINE EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP...DRY...WARM...BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN. && .AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND OVER EASTERN AREAS ONLY... SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AS SW FLOW RESUMES. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 93 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 10 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA 91 62 93 66 92 / 0 0 10 20 20 LAS CRUCES 91 58 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 90 58 93 61 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 CLOUDCROFT 68 45 69 49 71 / 0 0 10 10 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 91 61 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 88 55 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 91 56 93 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 91 57 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 92 66 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 DELL CITY 91 57 93 60 94 / 0 0 10 20 30 FORT HANCOCK 95 64 94 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 10 LOMA LINDA 87 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 10 10 10 FABENS 93 66 94 67 95 / 0 0 10 10 10 SANTA TERESA 93 60 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 10 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 91 67 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 10 JORNADA RANGE 91 49 94 52 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 HATCH 88 59 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 91 61 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 94 57 96 61 95 / 0 0 10 10 10 MAYHILL 80 53 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 20 30 MESCALERO 79 45 82 48 83 / 0 0 10 10 20 TIMBERON 78 44 80 49 81 / 0 0 10 10 20 WINSTON 81 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 86 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 90 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 83 49 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 86 59 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 92 51 92 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 88 42 89 42 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 85 58 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 91 57 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 90 56 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 92 60 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 86 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 14-BIRD
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- Page last modified: Oct 14th, 2009 17:03 UTC