Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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193
FXAK69 PAFG 262020
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1220 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST 54 HOURS OR SO. RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD SHORT TERM ALSO.
NAM CONTINUES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS IS
RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES TO COLD. WILL LEAN ON WHAT WE ALREADY
HAVE IN THE GRIDS AND ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR
TERM TEMPERATURES. GFS STILL OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...541 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND WILL ROTATE NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE WESTERN
END OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND. RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WHILE THE HIGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY IS ABSORBED
INTO THE PRIMARY RIDGE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A 504 DAM LOW OVER 80N
180 HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 74N 165W
TONIGHT AND THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE LOW WILL
BE 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
BERING STRAIT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DROPS SOUTH OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 513 DAM WITH THE TOUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. THEN CONTINUES TO BE OVER
KOTZEBUE SOUND BY SUNDAY MORNING AND NORTON SOUND BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 524 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 527 DAM BY SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...983 MB LOW 100NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE LOW THEN GETS ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY EVENING AT
985 MB. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND THAT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN SUNDAY. A 1018 MB HIGH
OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WITH RIDGING PUSHING SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST...THEN STRENGTHEN TO 1027 MB AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ON MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND BE ABSORBED INTO
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL MEET THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK CHINOOK CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING OFF RAPIDLY TOWARD
MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC
WITH A SURFACE LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY MOVING EAST. A MIXED BAG OF
WEATHER WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES AND FOG ALONG THE TROUGH. NO
WIND TO SPEAK OF WITH WINDS VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. SOME
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT DROP TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH...MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THAT AREA...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT THIS
WILL BE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST AREA THIS CYCLE. WITH FRONT
REORGANIZING OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON EXPECT MAINLY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SOME
AREAS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...OR RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST INLAND AREAS AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND SOUTH.
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR COOLER EACH DAY...BUT THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE THOUGH AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD SPOTS MANY AREAS
WILL HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...EXCEPT GUSTING
WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR 226 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MILD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO APRIL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15



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