Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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980
FXAK69 PAFG 241324
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
424 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE WEST COAST. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONG RANGE
MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 993 MB STACKED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY TUESDAY AS A
WEAK 1008 MB LOW.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING MOVED
ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK 1006 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL DROP SOUTH AND MERGE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE COMBINED FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES
EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. AN
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT OBSERVING STATIONS
IN ZONE 201 OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF WAINWRIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES EAST. OTHERWISE...WEATHER ON THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION PARTS OF THE WEST COAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE OVER
INLAND ZONE 214 AND WESTERN ZONE 215 IS SUPPORTIVE FOR A PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND NOON WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND NEED FOR ANY
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
FROM RUBY...SHUNGNAK TO GALENA...INDIAN MOUNTAIN AND BETTLES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH LAKE
MINCHUMINA...NENANA...LIVENGOOD...FAIRBANKS...FORT YUKON AND THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BETWEEN 4AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AFTER THIS
EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14



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