Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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804
FXAK69 PAFG 171022
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...BROAD LOW DOMINATES EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALASKA. THERE WILL BE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES
EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...AND A RIDGE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH RATHER
STRONG TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE...986MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A 996MB LOW OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND RUSSIA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
OFF THE COAST WILL FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE AREA TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WEST TO EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

WEST COAST...MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT DUE TO WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OF GREATER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
BERING SEA TO RUSSIA AND LOW OVER INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

INTERIOR...UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS
OVER ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH THROUGH PASSES. THE INTERIOR WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH...ALONG
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14



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