National Weather Service
000
acus03 kwns 060732
swody3
spc ac 060729
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt sat sep 06 2008
valid 081200z - 091200z
... no svr tstm areas forecast...
... synopsis...
short - wave trough -- embedded within large zone of cyclonic flow
aloft across the nrn conus -- is forecast to cross the nrn plains
and then shift across the upper great lakes through the period. as
this occurs ... weak baroclinic zone will move sewd into the srn
plains ... and across the mid ms/oh valleys with time. this front may
serve as a focus for thunderstorms and at least a low - probability
severe threat.
elsewhere ... hurricane ike is forecast to begin affecting s fl and
the keys during the second half of the period ... as it moves wwd from
the caribbean toward the fl straits.
... s fl...
hurricane ike is forecast to move wwd across the caribbean toward
nrn cuba this period per latest nhc forecasts ... with bands of
convection affecting srn fl and the keys. with enhanced low - level
flow likewise expected to spread across the region during the second
half of the period ... will introduce low probability tornado threat.
... mid ms/lower mo/lower oh valleys and vicinity...
models agree that baroclinic zone will sharpen/move slowly sewd
across the central conus ... as a weak frontal wave moves newd into
the lower great lakes region by the end of the period.
greatest instability is forecast to remain across ok/srn
mo/ar ... where flow aloft should remain weaker. meanwhile ... stronger
flow is forecast farther newd along the front into the mid oh valley
region ... but it appears attm that instability should be quite
limited across this area.
greatest severe threat attm appears to exist in between -- centered
on mo/il -- where most favorable combination of shear and
instability is currently anticipated.
.. goss.. 09/06/2008