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NWS Norman Hazardous Weather Outlooks Issued
Before and During the May 24, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

FLUS74 KOUN 241822
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
119 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MONITORING RAPID SCAN SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TRENDS IN CLOUD
FORMATION EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT LIES FROM NEAR ALVA...TO ELK
CITY...TO QUANAH AND BENJAMIN TEXAS. MOST OF THE REGION EAST THE
DRYLINE IS STILL CAPPED...BUT BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT THE
WEAKEST AREA OF CAPPING IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PRESENTLY BELIEVE REGION FROM ELK
CITY...TO NEAR ALTUS...TO ABOUT CROWELL TEXAS WILL BE REGION OF
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY BASED ON THE WELL ADVERTISED
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. INTIAL STORM
MOTION EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST (FROM 230 DEG.) AT ABOUT
35 MPH. AS STORM ASSUME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EXPECT A MOTION
TO BE A BIT MORE EASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

$$




FLUS74 KOUN 241905
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

INITIATION HAS OCCURRED WEST OF CLINTON...NEAR GRANITE...AND NEAR
ALTUS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

INITIAL CELLS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
INITIALLY EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. WE WILL CAREFULLY
MONITOR RADAR...VISUAL REPORTS AND THE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHIFT TO
TORNADO WARNINGS.

CELLS INITIALLY MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST (FROM 210 DEG.) AT NEAR 40
MPH SHOULD TURN MORE EASTERLY AND SLOW WITH TIME.

STILL EXPECT 5-7 PM AS THE ARRIVAL TIME WINDOW FOR I-35 CORRIDOR.

$$




FLUS74 KOUN 242039
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

A DANGEROUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS FROM
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO AND SOURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE NOW TORNADIC WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE NEAR LAWTON. ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES WILL OCCUR AS THESE STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

TIMES OF ARRIVAL AND GREATEST DANGER ARE:

WESTERN SIDES OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...415-500 PM.
DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...445-515 PM.
EDMOND...445-515 PM.
NORMAN AND MOORE...500-545 PM.
ENID...345-415 PM.
CHICKASHA...400-430 PM.
EL RENO...400-430 PM.
CHICKASHA...400-430 PM.
GUTHRIE...445-530 PM.

THESE ARE PLANNING ESTIMATES ONLY. RELY ON TORNADO WARNINGS FOR
NOTIFICATION IN SPECIFIC AREAS.

$$




FLUS74 KOUN 242127
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

A DANGEROUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS FROM
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO AND SOURROUNDING AREAS.

STORMS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND
WILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ALL RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR A
TORNADO IN THE AREA.

TIMES OF ARRIVAL AND GREATEST DANGER ARE:

WESTERN SIDES OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...445-530 PM.
DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...500-530 PM.
EDMOND...500-530 PM.
NORMAN AND MOORE...500-600 PM.
BLANCHARD...445-515 PM.
CHICKASHA...415-445 PM.
GUTHRIE...500-545 PM.

THESE ARE PLANNING ESTIMATES ONLY. RELY ON TORNADO WARNINGS FOR
NOTIFICATION IN SPECIFIC AREAS.

$$



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