FXUS64 KOUN 200123 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND LLJ STRENGTHENS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED ACTIVITY. SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL
CONCERN LATER TONIGHT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/
AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNGHT
IN NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND A DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/
DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF A ACTIVE PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTN AS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... AND THEN PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER A LOT OF WHAT
OCCURS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH FROM
ALOFT MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
MAIN SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY/TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER SFC FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 77 65 83 / 60 60 40 0
HOBART OK 66 85 61 92 / 60 40 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 84 67 96 / 60 50 30 0
GAGE OK 61 79 50 87 / 50 10 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 78 62 79 / 60 60 60 10
DURANT OK 70 78 67 83 / 60 60 60 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09
FXUS64 KOUN 200331
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPCTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKALHOMA BY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNGHT IN NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LAST MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND A DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND LLJ STRENGTHENS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED ACTIVITY. SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL
CONCERN LATER TONIGHT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/
AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNGHT
IN NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND A DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/
DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF A ACTIVE PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTN AS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... AND THEN PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER A LOT OF WHAT
OCCURS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH FROM
ALOFT MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
MAIN SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY/TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER SFC FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 77 65 83 / 60 60 40 0
HOBART OK 66 85 61 92 / 60 40 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 84 67 96 / 60 50 30 0
GAGE OK 61 79 50 87 / 50 10 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 78 62 79 / 60 60 60 10
DURANT OK 70 78 67 83 / 60 60 60 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 200853
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN
A FAIRLY ROBUST NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CO/WY. MITIGATING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER W PARTS OF
OK/TX. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EXISTING
SQUALL LINE/MCS WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF NIGHT/MORNING. THERE
ALSO WILL BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BEHIND IT.
THUS THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY. STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ALOFT... MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR A WHILE... WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF GIANT
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH WE WILL MAKE ONLY SUPERFICIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVE
BREAK IN CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS ON SAT AS WE END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS... FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT W RELOADS AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WED FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. STANDARD
INITIALIZATION ROUTINE WAS USED ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 61 89 64 / 60 40 0 10
HOBART OK 84 58 89 61 / 40 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 60 92 67 / 50 30 0 10
GAGE OK 84 53 88 55 / 30 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 64 85 63 / 60 50 10 10
DURANT OK 79 65 87 69 / 80 60 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24
FXUS64 KOUN 201133
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF MCS AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES E. CIGS 3-5K FT MAY LINGER IN
MANY AREAS E OF DRYLINE/COLDFRONT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY CENTRAL OK. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SHIFTING WINDS IN NW OK BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN
A FAIRLY ROBUST NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CO/WY. MITIGATING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER W PARTS OF
OK/TX. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EXISTING
SQUALL LINE/MCS WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF NIGHT/MORNING. THERE
ALSO WILL BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BEHIND IT.
THUS THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY. STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ALOFT... MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR A WHILE... WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF GIANT
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH WE WILL MAKE ONLY SUPERFICIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVE
BREAK IN CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS ON SAT AS WE END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS... FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT W RELOADS AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WED FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. STANDARD
INITIALIZATION ROUTINE WAS USED ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 61 89 64 / 60 40 0 10
HOBART OK 84 58 89 61 / 40 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 60 92 67 / 50 30 0 10
GAGE OK 84 53 88 55 / 30 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 64 85 63 / 60 50 10 10
DURANT OK 79 65 87 69 / 80 60 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24/24
FXUS64 KOUN 201733
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.AVIATION...
STRATIFORM PRECIP HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SCT/BKN IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PNC/OKC/OUN/LAW. NEW
CONVECTION NEAR FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
WEST OF AREA SO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN OK. NOT CONFIDENT WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION... SO
WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. MAY SEE LOWER CLOUDS REFORM ALONG WITH
LIGHT FOG LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF MCS AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES E. CIGS 3-5K FT MAY LINGER IN
MANY AREAS E OF DRYLINE/COLDFRONT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY CENTRAL OK. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SHIFTING WINDS IN NW OK BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN
A FAIRLY ROBUST NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CO/WY. MITIGATING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER W PARTS OF
OK/TX. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EXISTING
SQUALL LINE/MCS WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF NIGHT/MORNING. THERE
ALSO WILL BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BEHIND IT.
THUS THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY. STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ALOFT... MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR A WHILE... WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF GIANT
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH WE WILL MAKE ONLY SUPERFICIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVE
BREAK IN CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS ON SAT AS WE END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS... FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT W RELOADS AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WED FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. STANDARD
INITIALIZATION ROUTINE WAS USED ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 89 64 86 / 40 0 10 20
HOBART OK 58 89 61 85 / 20 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 92 67 90 / 30 0 10 20
GAGE OK 53 88 55 93 / 20 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 64 85 63 86 / 50 10 10 20
DURANT OK 65 87 69 86 / 60 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/01/01
FXUS64 KOUN 201949
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FROM MCS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO ARDMORE LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN
IMPACTS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. NAM HOLDS BETTER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE EC/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR
SATURDAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
FA.
MOISTURE/HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SEEM LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS WILL KEEP POPS AT OR
BELOW 50 PERCENT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 90 65 90 / 30 10 10 10
HOBART OK 54 88 59 92 / 20 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 91 67 92 / 20 0 10 20
GAGE OK 47 84 52 93 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 58 84 62 86 / 30 10 10 10
DURANT OK 68 90 70 84 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KOUN 202323
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUCH IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FROM MCS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO ARDMORE LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN
IMPACTS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. NAM HOLDS BETTER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE EC/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR
SATURDAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
FA.
MOISTURE/HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SEEM LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS WILL KEEP POPS AT OR
BELOW 50 PERCENT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 90 65 90 / 30 10 10 10
HOBART OK 54 88 59 92 / 20 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 91 67 92 / 20 0 10 20
GAGE OK 47 84 52 93 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 58 84 62 86 / 30 10 10 10
DURANT OK 68 90 70 84 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 210212 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL AFFECT FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE... ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE RETREATING TO THE WEST A LITTLE THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA SO HAVE ADDED TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL
SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUCH IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FROM MCS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO ARDMORE LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN
IMPACTS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. NAM HOLDS BETTER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE EC/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR
SATURDAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
FA.
MOISTURE/HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SEEM LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS WILL KEEP POPS AT OR
BELOW 50 PERCENT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 90 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 58 88 59 92 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 91 67 92 / 10 0 10 20
GAGE OK 50 84 52 93 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 62 84 62 86 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 63 90 70 84 / 30 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09
FXUS64 KOUN 210357
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE WESTERN ONE-FIFTH OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL TURN WEST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR IN ALL AREAS AFTER 211600Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL AFFECT FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE... ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE RETREATING TO THE WEST A LITTLE THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA SO HAVE ADDED TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL
SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUCH IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FROM MCS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO ARDMORE LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MAIN
IMPACTS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. NAM HOLDS BETTER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE EC/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR
SATURDAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
FA.
MOISTURE/HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SEEM LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS WILL KEEP POPS AT OR
BELOW 50 PERCENT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 90 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 58 88 59 92 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 91 67 92 / 10 0 10 20
GAGE OK 50 84 52 93 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 62 84 62 86 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 63 90 70 84 / 30 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 210900
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK E OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD HAZARD... BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WE PROBABLY CAN HANDLE THIS WITH NOWCASTS AND THE HWO...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO POST AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
NEXT ISSUE IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. DRYLINE SHOULD
MIX E TO NEAR OR E OF I-35 BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER E OK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER TX/LA DOING WHAT IT CAN TO
INTERCEPT THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS STILL WILL YIELD SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG... THUS
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY END UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE VEERED. THERE IS AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW... SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE INSTIGATOR OF
STORM INITIATION AS IT REACHES THE DRYLINE IN E OK LATE TODAY.
GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE E OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DRYLINE WILL RETREAT W/NW AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NE-SW FROM NCENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES
BY SUNDAY. WE THEN WILL BE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S AND
E PARTS OF THE AREA PER SWODY2.
THE PLOT THICKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENSIVE NEGATIVELY-
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE-WARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO AZ/NM. THIS IS AN OMINOUS LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR THE S PLAINS IN LATE SPRING. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO SUPPORT ONE SIZEABLE PIECE EJECTING FROM THE SW TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/S PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN LARGER PIECE TUESDAY.
EITHER OR BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND AROUND OK/TX. BUT THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES -
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 PCT POPS IN MOST PERIODS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. POPS THEN
ARE TAPERED OFF GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
MODEL VARIANCE THEN INCREASES SO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE. WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU-
FRIDAY... THINKING EITHER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
US /ECMWF/ OR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH /GFS/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
HOBART OK 89 61 92 68 / 0 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 93 68 / 0 10 20 30
GAGE OK 89 56 93 63 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 86 64 88 70 / 20 10 10 30
DURANT OK 87 72 86 70 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24
FXUS64 KOUN 211121
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE TROUBLESOME THIS MORNING. IR LOOP
CURRENTLY SHOWS STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS IN CENTRAL OK AND MUCH
SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESS IN N TX... SO KOKC AND KOUN LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE STRATUS PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH
KSPS AT ALL. MEANWHILE KPNC AND KLAW LIKELY TO BE IN AND OUT OF
IT. EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO HALT AND THEN REVERSE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DRYLINE WILL END UP E
OF ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY RETREAT W AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
CENTRAL OK AND PROBABLY KLAW/KSPS TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK E OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD HAZARD... BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WE PROBABLY CAN HANDLE THIS WITH NOWCASTS AND THE HWO...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO POST AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
NEXT ISSUE IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. DRYLINE SHOULD
MIX E TO NEAR OR E OF I-35 BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER E OK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER TX/LA DOING WHAT IT CAN TO
INTERCEPT THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS STILL WILL YIELD SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG... THUS
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY END UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE VEERED. THERE IS AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW... SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE INSTIGATOR OF
STORM INITIATION AS IT REACHES THE DRYLINE IN E OK LATE TODAY.
GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE E OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DRYLINE WILL RETREAT W/NW AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NE-SW FROM NCENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES
BY SUNDAY. WE THEN WILL BE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S AND
E PARTS OF THE AREA PER SWODY2.
THE PLOT THICKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENSIVE NEGATIVELY-
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE-WARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO AZ/NM. THIS IS AN OMINOUS LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR THE S PLAINS IN LATE SPRING. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO SUPPORT ONE SIZEABLE PIECE EJECTING FROM THE SW TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/S PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN LARGER PIECE TUESDAY.
EITHER OR BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND AROUND OK/TX. BUT THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES -
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 PCT POPS IN MOST PERIODS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. POPS THEN
ARE TAPERED OFF GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
MODEL VARIANCE THEN INCREASES SO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE. WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU-
FRIDAY... THINKING EITHER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
US /ECMWF/ OR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH /GFS/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
HOBART OK 89 61 92 68 / 0 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 93 68 / 0 10 20 30
GAGE OK 89 56 93 63 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 86 64 88 70 / 20 10 10 30
DURANT OK 87 72 86 70 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24/24
FXUS64 KOUN 211615
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS BASED ON TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED RETREAT OF MOISTURE BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... NO CHANGES FOR TODAY. STILL EXPECT TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE TROUBLESOME THIS MORNING. IR LOOP
CURRENTLY SHOWS STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS IN CENTRAL OK AND MUCH
SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESS IN N TX... SO KOKC AND KOUN LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE STRATUS PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH
KSPS AT ALL. MEANWHILE KPNC AND KLAW LIKELY TO BE IN AND OUT OF
IT. EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO HALT AND THEN REVERSE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DRYLINE WILL END UP E
OF ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY RETREAT W AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
CENTRAL OK AND PROBABLY KLAW/KSPS TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK E OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD HAZARD... BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WE PROBABLY CAN HANDLE THIS WITH NOWCASTS AND THE HWO...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO POST AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
NEXT ISSUE IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. DRYLINE SHOULD
MIX E TO NEAR OR E OF I-35 BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER E OK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER TX/LA DOING WHAT IT CAN TO
INTERCEPT THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS STILL WILL YIELD SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG... THUS
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY END UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE VEERED. THERE IS AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW... SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE INSTIGATOR OF
STORM INITIATION AS IT REACHES THE DRYLINE IN E OK LATE TODAY.
GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE E OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DRYLINE WILL RETREAT W/NW AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NE-SW FROM NCENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES
BY SUNDAY. WE THEN WILL BE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S AND
E PARTS OF THE AREA PER SWODY2.
THE PLOT THICKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENSIVE NEGATIVELY-
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE-WARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO AZ/NM. THIS IS AN OMINOUS LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR THE S PLAINS IN LATE SPRING. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO SUPPORT ONE SIZEABLE PIECE EJECTING FROM THE SW TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/S PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN LARGER PIECE TUESDAY.
EITHER OR BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND AROUND OK/TX. BUT THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES -
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 PCT POPS IN MOST PERIODS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. POPS THEN
ARE TAPERED OFF GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
MODEL VARIANCE THEN INCREASES SO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE. WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU-
FRIDAY... THINKING EITHER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
US /ECMWF/ OR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH /GFS/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
HOBART OK 89 61 92 68 / 0 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 93 68 / 0 10 20 30
GAGE OK 89 56 93 63 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 86 64 88 70 / 20 10 10 30
DURANT OK 87 72 86 70 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/02
FXUS64 KOUN 211712
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.AVIATION...
DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MIX EAST OF ALL SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP IN EASTERN SITES BY SUNRISE AS MOIST AIR
SPREADS BACK WWD TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR
EARLY MORNING THEN SCATTERING OUT AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS BASED ON TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED RETREAT OF MOISTURE BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... NO CHANGES FOR TODAY. STILL EXPECT TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE TROUBLESOME THIS MORNING. IR LOOP
CURRENTLY SHOWS STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS IN CENTRAL OK AND MUCH
SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESS IN N TX... SO KOKC AND KOUN LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE STRATUS PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH
KSPS AT ALL. MEANWHILE KPNC AND KLAW LIKELY TO BE IN AND OUT OF
IT. EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO HALT AND THEN REVERSE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DRYLINE WILL END UP E
OF ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY RETREAT W AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
CENTRAL OK AND PROBABLY KLAW/KSPS TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK E OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD HAZARD... BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WE PROBABLY CAN HANDLE THIS WITH NOWCASTS AND THE HWO...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO POST AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
NEXT ISSUE IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. DRYLINE SHOULD
MIX E TO NEAR OR E OF I-35 BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER E OK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER TX/LA DOING WHAT IT CAN TO
INTERCEPT THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS STILL WILL YIELD SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG... THUS
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY END UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE VEERED. THERE IS AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW... SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE INSTIGATOR OF
STORM INITIATION AS IT REACHES THE DRYLINE IN E OK LATE TODAY.
GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE E OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DRYLINE WILL RETREAT W/NW AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NE-SW FROM NCENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES
BY SUNDAY. WE THEN WILL BE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S AND
E PARTS OF THE AREA PER SWODY2.
THE PLOT THICKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENSIVE NEGATIVELY-
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE-WARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO AZ/NM. THIS IS AN OMINOUS LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR THE S PLAINS IN LATE SPRING. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO SUPPORT ONE SIZEABLE PIECE EJECTING FROM THE SW TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/S PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN LARGER PIECE TUESDAY.
EITHER OR BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND AROUND OK/TX. BUT THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES -
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 PCT POPS IN MOST PERIODS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. POPS THEN
ARE TAPERED OFF GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
MODEL VARIANCE THEN INCREASES SO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE. WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU-
FRIDAY... THINKING EITHER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
US /ECMWF/ OR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH /GFS/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
HOBART OK 89 61 92 68 / 0 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 93 68 / 0 10 20 30
GAGE OK 89 56 93 63 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 86 64 88 70 / 20 10 10 30
DURANT OK 87 72 86 70 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/02
FXUS64 KOUN 212000
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SE OK. AIRMASS
HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE A FEW
INTIATE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESONET
SHOWS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SCNTRL OK AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP STORMS
IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF FA LATER THIS EVENING. DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK WWD TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE SW-NE
ON SUNDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
MIGRATES EWD. BY MONDAY MORNING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO THE EAST. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF LEAD S/W TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON
TUEADAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 90 70 86 / 10 20 40 30
HOBART OK 61 93 69 93 / 10 10 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 94 71 94 / 10 30 30 20
GAGE OK 52 94 61 87 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 89 70 82 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 69 87 69 85 / 20 30 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/02
FXUS64 KOUN 212306
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE IFR CEILINGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 220600Z. BY 221500Z SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A DRYLINE IN MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER
AND AREAS EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SE OK. AIRMASS
HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE A FEW
INTIATE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESONET
SHOWS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SCNTRL OK AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP STORMS
IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF FA LATER THIS EVENING. DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK WWD TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE SW-NE
ON SUNDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
MIGRATES EWD. BY MONDAY MORNING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO THE EAST. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF LEAD S/W TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON
TUEADAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 90 70 86 / 10 20 40 30
HOBART OK 61 93 69 93 / 10 10 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 94 71 94 / 10 30 30 20
GAGE OK 52 94 61 87 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 89 70 82 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 69 87 69 85 / 20 30 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 220303 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
IN. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE IFR CEILINGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 220600Z. BY 221500Z SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A DRYLINE IN MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER
AND AREAS EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SE OK. AIRMASS
HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE A FEW
INTIATE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESONET
SHOWS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SCNTRL OK AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP STORMS
IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF FA LATER THIS EVENING. DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK WWD TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE SW-NE
ON SUNDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
MIGRATES EWD. BY MONDAY MORNING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO THE EAST. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF LEAD S/W TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON
TUEADAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 90 70 86 / 10 20 40 30
HOBART OK 61 93 69 93 / 10 10 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 94 71 94 / 10 30 30 20
GAGE OK 52 94 61 87 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 68 89 70 82 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 72 87 69 85 / 20 30 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09
FXUS64 KOUN 220345
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH MOST OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 220600Z. BY
221500Z SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A
DRYLINE IN MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER AND AREAS EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
IN. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE IFR CEILINGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 220600Z. BY 221500Z SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A DRYLINE IN MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER
AND AREAS EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
NEARING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SE OK. AIRMASS
HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE A FEW
INTIATE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESONET
SHOWS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SCNTRL OK AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP STORMS
IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF FA LATER THIS EVENING. DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK WWD TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE SW-NE
ON SUNDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
MIGRATES EWD. BY MONDAY MORNING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NW OK WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE TO THE EAST. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF LEAD S/W TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON
TUEADAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 90 70 86 / 10 20 40 30
HOBART OK 61 93 69 93 / 10 10 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 94 71 94 / 10 30 30 20
GAGE OK 52 94 61 87 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 68 89 70 82 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 72 87 69 85 / 20 30 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 220929
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 3 DAYS.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE SATURDAY... SO ANYTHING THAT GOES UP IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND
THUS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALMOST ANYTHING. DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR NEAR DRYLINE DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON... A BIT SOONER
THAN YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SE OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING A DISTINCT FEATURE TO INITIATE STORMS
TODAY... AND SO THE COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED MUCH LIKE IT WAS
YESTERDAY. AS SUCH WE ARE HOLDING FOR NOW WITH A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK TODAY... BASED ON LIMITED COVERAGE BUT AN ACKNOWLEDGED RISK
OF GIANT HAIL AND PERHAPS 1 OR 2 STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE
PROGGED SHEAR/HELICITY.
BEYOND TODAY THE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE INEVITIBLE EFFECTS
OF PERIOD-N CONVECTION ON PERIOD N+1. GENERAL TREND IS LIKELY TO
BE FOR INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STORMS GOING INTO MON-TUE AS WE
COME UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH FROM
OFF THE PACNW COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAINW AND SW CONUS. IMPULSES
RIDING OUT FROM THIS TROUGH LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY... THEN THE WHOLE THING COMES OUT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES/CLUSTERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THESE
COMPLEXTS COULD SUPPRESS OR SHIFT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BY WORKING OVER THE LOW LEVELS... OR THEY COULD
INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS BY LAYING OUT ONE OR
MORE BOUNDARIES FOR STORMS TO FOCUS ON.
STANDARD INITIALIZATION WAS USED FOR WED AND BEYOND WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING GRIDS. UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD DO A SWEEP AND CLEAR BY WED NIGHT... LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A DIGGING UPPER LOW INTO MO/AR
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 86 68 / 20 40 30 50
HOBART OK 96 68 90 64 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 70 90 70 / 30 40 20 20
GAGE OK 93 61 89 62 / 0 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 89 71 82 69 / 20 40 60 70
DURANT OK 83 69 86 71 / 30 50 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24
FXUS64 KOUN 221125
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG HAS BEEN MORE TENTATIVE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE MIXING CLEARS MOST
AREAS OUT. DRYLINE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR KPNC-KOKC-KLAW BY MAX
HEATING LATE AFTERNOON. T-STORMS MAY BE NEAR AND SE OF THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT. RETREATING DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIR COVERING ALL TAF SITES BY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 3 DAYS.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE SATURDAY... SO ANYTHING THAT GOES UP IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND
THUS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALMOST ANYTHING. DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR NEAR DRYLINE DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON... A BIT SOONER
THAN YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SE OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING A DISTINCT FEATURE TO INITIATE STORMS
TODAY... AND SO THE COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED MUCH LIKE IT WAS
YESTERDAY. AS SUCH WE ARE HOLDING FOR NOW WITH A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK TODAY... BASED ON LIMITED COVERAGE BUT AN ACKNOWLEDGED RISK
OF GIANT HAIL AND PERHAPS 1 OR 2 STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE
PROGGED SHEAR/HELICITY.
BEYOND TODAY THE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE INEVITIBLE EFFECTS
OF PERIOD-N CONVECTION ON PERIOD N+1. GENERAL TREND IS LIKELY TO
BE FOR INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STORMS GOING INTO MON-TUE AS WE
COME UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH FROM
OFF THE PACNW COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAINW AND SW CONUS. IMPULSES
RIDING OUT FROM THIS TROUGH LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY... THEN THE WHOLE THING COMES OUT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES/CLUSTERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THESE
COMPLEXTS COULD SUPPRESS OR SHIFT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BY WORKING OVER THE LOW LEVELS... OR THEY COULD
INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS BY LAYING OUT ONE OR
MORE BOUNDARIES FOR STORMS TO FOCUS ON.
STANDARD INITIALIZATION WAS USED FOR WED AND BEYOND WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING GRIDS. UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD DO A SWEEP AND CLEAR BY WED NIGHT... LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A DIGGING UPPER LOW INTO MO/AR
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 86 68 / 20 40 30 50
HOBART OK 96 68 90 64 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 70 90 70 / 30 40 20 20
GAGE OK 93 61 89 62 / 0 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 89 71 82 69 / 20 40 60 70
DURANT OK 83 69 86 71 / 30 50 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24/24
FXUS64 KOUN 221748
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PD. DRYLINE AGAIN MIXING EAST TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE CLOSE IN CNTRL OK. THUS WILL LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR LATER TONIGHT MODELS
SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES IN NRN OK NEAR
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SW SITES NEAR DRYLINE AS S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG HAS BEEN MORE TENTATIVE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE MIXING CLEARS MOST
AREAS OUT. DRYLINE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR KPNC-KOKC-KLAW BY MAX
HEATING LATE AFTERNOON. T-STORMS MAY BE NEAR AND SE OF THESE
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT. RETREATING DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIR COVERING ALL TAF SITES BY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 3 DAYS.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE SATURDAY... SO ANYTHING THAT GOES UP IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND
THUS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALMOST ANYTHING. DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR NEAR DRYLINE DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON... A BIT SOONER
THAN YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SE OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING A DISTINCT FEATURE TO INITIATE STORMS
TODAY... AND SO THE COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED MUCH LIKE IT WAS
YESTERDAY. AS SUCH WE ARE HOLDING FOR NOW WITH A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK TODAY... BASED ON LIMITED COVERAGE BUT AN ACKNOWLEDGED RISK
OF GIANT HAIL AND PERHAPS 1 OR 2 STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE
PROGGED SHEAR/HELICITY.
BEYOND TODAY THE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE INEVITIBLE EFFECTS
OF PERIOD-N CONVECTION ON PERIOD N+1. GENERAL TREND IS LIKELY TO
BE FOR INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STORMS GOING INTO MON-TUE AS WE
COME UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH FROM
OFF THE PACNW COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAINW AND SW CONUS. IMPULSES
RIDING OUT FROM THIS TROUGH LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY... THEN THE WHOLE THING COMES OUT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES/CLUSTERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THESE
COMPLEXTS COULD SUPPRESS OR SHIFT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BY WORKING OVER THE LOW LEVELS... OR THEY COULD
INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS BY LAYING OUT ONE OR
MORE BOUNDARIES FOR STORMS TO FOCUS ON.
STANDARD INITIALIZATION WAS USED FOR WED AND BEYOND WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING GRIDS. UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD DO A SWEEP AND CLEAR BY WED NIGHT... LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A DIGGING UPPER LOW INTO MO/AR
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 86 68 / 20 40 30 50
HOBART OK 96 68 90 64 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 70 90 70 / 30 40 20 20
GAGE OK 93 61 89 62 / 0 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 89 71 82 69 / 20 40 60 70
DURANT OK 83 69 86 71 / 30 50 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24/24
FXUS64 KOUN 221915
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SCNTRL OK AND ALSO
IN FAR NCNTRL OK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WATCH
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TODAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 86 68 90 / 40 30 50 30
HOBART OK 69 90 64 92 / 30 30 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 96 / 40 30 20 30
GAGE OK 62 89 62 84 / 20 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 72 82 65 82 / 50 50 70 30
DURANT OK 70 86 71 88 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/02
FXUS64 KOUN 222301
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ALONG A DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
COMMON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OK AND ALSO
IN FAR NCNTRL OK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WATCH
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TODAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 86 68 90 / 40 30 50 30
HOBART OK 69 90 64 92 / 30 30 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 96 / 40 30 20 30
GAGE OK 62 89 62 84 / 20 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 72 82 65 82 / 50 50 70 30
DURANT OK 70 86 71 88 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 230225 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.UPDATE...
STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
CURRENT THINKING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE... LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ALONG A DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
COMMON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OK AND ALSO
IN FAR NCNTRL OK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WATCH
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TODAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 86 68 90 / 40 30 50 30
HOBART OK 69 90 64 92 / 30 30 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 96 / 40 30 20 30
GAGE OK 62 89 62 84 / 20 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 72 82 65 82 / 60 50 70 30
DURANT OK 70 86 71 88 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09
FXUS64 KOUN 230346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER
210800Z AND MOVE EAST. SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
UPDATE...
STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
CURRENT THINKING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE... LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ALONG A DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
COMMON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/
DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OK AND ALSO
IN FAR NCNTRL OK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WATCH
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TODAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 86 68 90 / 40 30 50 30
HOBART OK 69 90 64 92 / 30 30 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 96 / 40 30 20 30
GAGE OK 62 89 62 84 / 20 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 72 82 65 82 / 60 50 70 30
DURANT OK 70 86 71 88 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/09/09
FXUS64 KOUN 230957
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT 2 DAYS.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THIS MORNING THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE AREA IS UNDISTURBED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION... AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /0-6KM/ IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGER TODAY OVER THE MOIST SECTOR WITH MAGNITUDES
45-60KT OR SO BY 00Z THIS EVENING... VS 35-45KT SUNDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN OMINOUS-LOOKING IMPULSE OVER N MEXICO
MOVING RAPIDLY ENE. THIS FEATURE EXTRAPOLATES TO N TX AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PROBABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE AREA OF DRYING ALOFT. BASED ON 06Z NAM WE WILL NOT HAVE
THE DRYLINE IN THE AREA AS A FOCUS... IT REMAINS NEAR OUR W
BORDER... BUT NAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BLOWING UP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA 18-21Z. THIS MAY BE
CONNECTED TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW NEAR EL PASO. UNLIKE THE
LAST 2 DAYS WHEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDED MORE THAN A
SLIGHT RISK... WE MAY HAVE THE OPPOSITE PROBLEM TODAY WITH STORMS
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS AND UPDRAFT COMPETITION LIMITING THE CHANCES
OF ANY ONE STORM TO MAINTAIN DOMINANCE. BUT WITH ALL ELSE
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS TODAY... WE ARE DISCUSSING
THE SITUATION FURTHER WITH SPC AND WILL GO TO A MODERATE RISK IN
THE UPCOMING HWO. WE PLAN TO DO ANOTHER 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.
TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WORSE IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD
AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AXIS OF VERY POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NM EARLY TUE AND DRIVE E INTO
W TX BY 18Z. EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE RELATIVELY EARLY IN
OK ON TUE AND LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION. IF CAP HOLDS
OFF INITIATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GO FROM STRONG TO EXTREME.. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PER SWODY2.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR LATE MAY COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE 992-ISH SURFACE LOW -
ALSO UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR LATE MAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO
BE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT W TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE...
AND FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GFS-MOS
GUIDANCE GIVES US 30-35 KT OVER W OK... AND 35-45 KT OVER W KS AND
NW TX. THIS IS VERY REMARKABLE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. WE
WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT STRONG... BUT VERY WELL MAY BE LOOKING AT
WIND ADVISORIES ON EITHER OR BOTH DAYS.
COOLER ALL AREAS WED AS SYSTEM WINDS UP AND BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER E KS. MAY BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR SOME RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD-POOL CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY N OK.
EXTENDED GRIDS BASED ON STANDARD INITIALIZATION WITH MINOR RETOOLING
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW... BUT
THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE
TUE-WED SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD
PLACE US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. POPS
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AT SOME POINT... BUT THERE
IS PRESENTLY TOO MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO EVEN
BEGIN TO SAY WHEN AND WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 91 62 / 40 30 30 50
HOBART OK 87 64 95 57 / 40 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 97 62 / 40 20 30 30
GAGE OK 91 60 85 55 / 40 40 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 70 85 61 / 60 50 30 50
DURANT OK 86 70 89 68 / 40 30 20 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24
FXUS64 KOUN 231146
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS ABSENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SCT-BKN CU/SC LATER THIS MORNING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEY ON 20Z-01Z AS MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF T-STORMS ALL AREAS BASED ON NAM BREAKING OUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME WE WILL DECREASE THE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BASED ON MODEL QPF TRENDS... BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE
AN E-W SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR RED RIVER THIS EVENING THEN
LIFTING N LATE TONIGHT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION N OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT BUT DETAILS TOO UNCERTAIN
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. RETURN OF MOIST AIR SURGING N E OF
DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT 2 DAYS.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THIS MORNING THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE AREA IS UNDISTURBED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION... AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /0-6KM/ IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGER TODAY OVER THE MOIST SECTOR WITH MAGNITUDES
45-60KT OR SO BY 00Z THIS EVENING... VS 35-45KT SUNDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN OMINOUS-LOOKING IMPULSE OVER N MEXICO
MOVING RAPIDLY ENE. THIS FEATURE EXTRAPOLATES TO N TX AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PROBABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE AREA OF DRYING ALOFT. BASED ON 06Z NAM WE WILL NOT HAVE
THE DRYLINE IN THE AREA AS A FOCUS... IT REMAINS NEAR OUR W
BORDER... BUT NAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BLOWING UP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA 18-21Z. THIS MAY BE
CONNECTED TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW NEAR EL PASO. UNLIKE THE
LAST 2 DAYS WHEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDED MORE THAN A
SLIGHT RISK... WE MAY HAVE THE OPPOSITE PROBLEM TODAY WITH STORMS
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS AND UPDRAFT COMPETITION LIMITING THE CHANCES
OF ANY ONE STORM TO MAINTAIN DOMINANCE. BUT WITH ALL ELSE
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS TODAY... WE ARE DISCUSSING
THE SITUATION FURTHER WITH SPC AND WILL GO TO A MODERATE RISK IN
THE UPCOMING HWO. WE PLAN TO DO ANOTHER 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.
TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WORSE IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD
AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AXIS OF VERY POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NM EARLY TUE AND DRIVE E INTO
W TX BY 18Z. EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE RELATIVELY EARLY IN
OK ON TUE AND LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION. IF CAP HOLDS
OFF INITIATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GO FROM STRONG TO EXTREME.. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PER SWODY2.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR LATE MAY COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE 992-ISH SURFACE LOW -
ALSO UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR LATE MAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO
BE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT W TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE...
AND FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GFS-MOS
GUIDANCE GIVES US 30-35 KT OVER W OK... AND 35-45 KT OVER W KS AND
NW TX. THIS IS VERY REMARKABLE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. WE
WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT STRONG... BUT VERY WELL MAY BE LOOKING AT
WIND ADVISORIES ON EITHER OR BOTH DAYS.
COOLER ALL AREAS WED AS SYSTEM WINDS UP AND BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER E KS. MAY BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR SOME RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD-POOL CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY N OK.
EXTENDED GRIDS BASED ON STANDARD INITIALIZATION WITH MINOR RETOOLING
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW... BUT
THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE
TUE-WED SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD
PLACE US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. POPS
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AT SOME POINT... BUT THERE
IS PRESENTLY TOO MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO EVEN
BEGIN TO SAY WHEN AND WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 91 62 / 40 30 30 50
HOBART OK 87 64 95 57 / 40 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 97 62 / 40 20 30 30
GAGE OK 91 60 85 55 / 40 40 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 70 85 61 / 60 50 30 50
DURANT OK 86 70 89 68 / 40 30 20 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/24/24
FXUS64 KOUN 231737
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR A DRYLINE IN WESTERN OK AND NEAR
A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OK MAY BRING ASSOCIATED
WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS TO JUST
ABOUT ANY TERMINAL EXCEPT KGAG/KWWR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
RATHER THAN ADD VCTS OR TEMPO TO EVERY TAF...WE WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF CEILINGS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BECOMING IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
AVIATION...
STRATUS IS ABSENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SCT-BKN CU/SC LATER THIS MORNING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEY ON 20Z-01Z AS MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF T-STORMS ALL AREAS BASED ON NAM BREAKING OUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS TIME WE WILL DECREASE THE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BASED ON MODEL QPF TRENDS... BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE
AN E-W SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR RED RIVER THIS EVENING THEN
LIFTING N LATE TONIGHT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION N OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT BUT DETAILS TOO UNCERTAIN
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. RETURN OF MOIST AIR SURGING N E OF
DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT 2 DAYS.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THIS MORNING THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE AREA IS UNDISTURBED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION... AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /0-6KM/ IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGER TODAY OVER THE MOIST SECTOR WITH MAGNITUDES
45-60KT OR SO BY 00Z THIS EVENING... VS 35-45KT SUNDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN OMINOUS-LOOKING IMPULSE OVER N MEXICO
MOVING RAPIDLY ENE. THIS FEATURE EXTRAPOLATES TO N TX AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PROBABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE AREA OF DRYING ALOFT. BASED ON 06Z NAM WE WILL NOT HAVE
THE DRYLINE IN THE AREA AS A FOCUS... IT REMAINS NEAR OUR W
BORDER... BUT NAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BLOWING UP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA 18-21Z. THIS MAY BE
CONNECTED TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW NEAR EL PASO. UNLIKE THE
LAST 2 DAYS WHEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDED MORE THAN A
SLIGHT RISK... WE MAY HAVE THE OPPOSITE PROBLEM TODAY WITH STORMS
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS AND UPDRAFT COMPETITION LIMITING THE CHANCES
OF ANY ONE STORM TO MAINTAIN DOMINANCE. BUT WITH ALL ELSE
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS TODAY... WE ARE DISCUSSING
THE SITUATION FURTHER WITH SPC AND WILL GO TO A MODERATE RISK IN
THE UPCOMING HWO. WE PLAN TO DO ANOTHER 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.
TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WORSE IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD
AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AXIS OF VERY POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NM EARLY TUE AND DRIVE E INTO
W TX BY 18Z. EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE RELATIVELY EARLY IN
OK ON TUE AND LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION. IF CAP HOLDS
OFF INITIATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GO FROM STRONG TO EXTREME.. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PER SWODY2.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR LATE MAY COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE 992-ISH SURFACE LOW -
ALSO UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR LATE MAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO
BE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT W TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE...
AND FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GFS-MOS
GUIDANCE GIVES US 30-35 KT OVER W OK... AND 35-45 KT OVER W KS AND
NW TX. THIS IS VERY REMARKABLE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. WE
WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT STRONG... BUT VERY WELL MAY BE LOOKING AT
WIND ADVISORIES ON EITHER OR BOTH DAYS.
COOLER ALL AREAS WED AS SYSTEM WINDS UP AND BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER E KS. MAY BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR SOME RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD-POOL CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY N OK.
EXTENDED GRIDS BASED ON STANDARD INITIALIZATION WITH MINOR RETOOLING
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW... BUT
THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE
TUE-WED SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD
PLACE US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. POPS
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AT SOME POINT... BUT THERE
IS PRESENTLY TOO MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO EVEN
BEGIN TO SAY WHEN AND WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 91 62 / 40 30 30 50
HOBART OK 87 64 95 57 / 40 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 97 62 / 40 20 30 30
GAGE OK 91 60 85 55 / 40 40 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 70 85 61 / 60 50 30 50
DURANT OK 86 70 89 68 / 40 30 20 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/03/03
TAYLOR
FXUS64 KOUN 232032
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SET OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES THROUGH
NORTHWEST OK...AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A DRYLINE WHICH
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM AROUND CLINTON TO AROUND
GRANITE...AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
FAVORED...WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM INTENSITY TO DECREASE AFTER DARK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OK FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL NOT BE TAKEN FARTHER SOUTHWARD FOR
NOW AS GREEN VEGETATION HAS LIKELY BEGUN GROWING AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 63 83 / 30 30 40 20
HOBART OK 68 93 57 86 / 20 20 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 95 61 88 / 20 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 89 54 78 / 40 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 86 62 77 / 50 30 60 30
DURANT OK 68 85 68 85 / 30 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/03
TAYLOR
FXUS64 KOUN 232306
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.UPDATE...
0Z TAFS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AT SOME SITES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SET OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES THROUGH
NORTHWEST OK...AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A DRYLINE WHICH
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM AROUND CLINTON TO AROUND
GRANITE...AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
FAVORED...WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM INTENSITY TO DECREASE AFTER DARK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OK FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL NOT BE TAKEN FARTHER SOUTHWARD FOR
NOW AS GREEN VEGETATION HAS LIKELY BEGUN GROWING AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 63 83 / 30 30 40 20
HOBART OK 68 93 57 86 / 20 20 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 95 61 88 / 20 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 89 54 78 / 40 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 86 62 77 / 50 30 60 30
DURANT OK 68 85 68 85 / 30 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/25
FXUS64 KOUN 240412
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.UPDATE...
06Z TAFS... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT SOME SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. A FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
UPDATE...
0Z TAFS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AT SOME SITES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SET OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES THROUGH
NORTHWEST OK...AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A DRYLINE WHICH
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM AROUND CLINTON TO AROUND
GRANITE...AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
FAVORED...WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM INTENSITY TO DECREASE AFTER DARK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OK FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL NOT BE TAKEN FARTHER SOUTHWARD FOR
NOW AS GREEN VEGETATION HAS LIKELY BEGUN GROWING AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 63 83 / 30 30 40 20
HOBART OK 68 93 57 86 / 20 20 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 95 61 88 / 20 30 20 10
GAGE OK 64 89 54 78 / 40 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 86 62 77 / 50 30 60 30
DURANT OK 68 85 68 85 / 30 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/25
FXUS64 KOUN 240918
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL DEVELOP TODAY... BOTH WITH THE HIGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
STRONG UPPER TROF OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS BEGINNING ITS MOVE
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS TO COME
OUT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KNOT 500 MB JET NOSING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A 110 KNOT 300 MB JET INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO ABOUT 992 MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE IN TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MOST LIKELY TO NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE US-81 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA /INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/ AT HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SEE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING... AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES EAST TO WILBARGER AND
BAYLOR. INFORMATION FROM THE STATE FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATE THAT
SUFFICIENT GREENING MAY HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THAT RED FLAG MAY NOT BE NECESSARY THERE... BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE EXTREMELY LOW RH EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED... BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 61 81 56 / 30 50 20 10
HOBART OK 91 57 81 52 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 60 87 57 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 89 55 76 49 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 62 75 55 / 30 60 40 20
DURANT OK 86 67 85 59 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KOUN 241153
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD
BE VERY ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY INCLUDE AREAS AROUND KOKC... KOUN AND KPNC THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD
THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY TODAY. SOME SCATTERED STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MAY AFFECT VARIOUS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHIFTING WINDS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE BLOWING DUST IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH LIKELIHOOD TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS... COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOME OF THE
WESTERN TAF SITES. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SOME INITIAL STORMS MAY
AFFECT AREAS NEAR KLAW AND KSPS... BUT THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AREAS FARTHER EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL DEVELOP TODAY... BOTH WITH THE HIGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
STRONG UPPER TROF OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS BEGINNING ITS MOVE
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS TO COME
OUT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KNOT 500 MB JET NOSING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A 110 KNOT 300 MB JET INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO ABOUT 992 MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE IN TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MOST LIKELY TO NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE US-81 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA /INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/ AT HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SEE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING... AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES EAST TO WILBARGER AND
BAYLOR. INFORMATION FROM THE STATE FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATE THAT
SUFFICIENT GREENING MAY HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THAT RED FLAG MAY NOT BE NECESSARY THERE... BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE EXTREMELY LOW RH EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED... BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 61 81 56 / 30 50 20 10
HOBART OK 91 57 81 52 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 60 87 57 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 89 55 76 49 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 62 75 55 / 30 60 40 20
DURANT OK 86 67 85 59 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KOUN 241659
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FELT FROM SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A BROKEN
LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY AROUND 20Z FROM WESTERN OK
INTO WESTERN NORTH TX...QUICKLY MOVING EAST. THOUGH TSTMS COULD
AFFECT FAR WEST TERMINALS...THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS AFFECTING TERMINALS FARTHER EAST.
STRONG WEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN AT FAR WEST TERMINALS /KGAG
KWWR KCSM KHBR/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD
BE VERY ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY INCLUDE AREAS AROUND KOKC... KOUN AND KPNC THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD
THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY TODAY. SOME SCATTERED STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MAY AFFECT VARIOUS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHIFTING WINDS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE BLOWING DUST IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH LIKELIHOOD TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS... COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOME OF THE
WESTERN TAF SITES. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SOME INITIAL STORMS MAY
AFFECT AREAS NEAR KLAW AND KSPS... BUT THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AREAS FARTHER EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL DEVELOP TODAY... BOTH WITH THE HIGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
STRONG UPPER TROF OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS BEGINNING ITS MOVE
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS TO COME
OUT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KNOT 500 MB JET NOSING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A 110 KNOT 300 MB JET INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO ABOUT 992 MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE IN TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MOST LIKELY TO NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE US-81 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA /INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/ AT HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SEE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING... AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES EAST TO WILBARGER AND
BAYLOR. INFORMATION FROM THE STATE FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATE THAT
SUFFICIENT GREENING MAY HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THAT RED FLAG MAY NOT BE NECESSARY THERE... BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE EXTREMELY LOW RH EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED... BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 61 81 56 / 30 50 20 10
HOBART OK 91 57 81 52 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 60 87 57 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 89 55 76 49 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 62 75 55 / 30 60 40 20
DURANT OK 86 67 85 59 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-
021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.
&&
$$
02/03/03
TAYLOR
FXUS64 KOUN 241918
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
STORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED IN WESTERN OK...AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP IS WEAKEST. WE STILL EXPECT A BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEN
MOVE EAST. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUN CWA
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN THE OUN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING...SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE LEFT AS IS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER... MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MAY RESULT IN
MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A RED FLAG WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE COOLER IN OK...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS IN FAR WESTERN OK AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 81 56 78 / 50 30 10 0
HOBART OK 57 80 52 78 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 88 58 84 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 58 73 47 80 / 20 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 73 55 74 / 60 50 20 0
DURANT OK 67 84 58 78 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-
021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
02/03
TAYLOR
FXUS64 KOUN 242357
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE
AT KOKC...KOUN...OR KPNC THROUGH 01Z. BLOWING DUST HAS RESULTED
IN SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT KLAW/KSPS...AND DUST MAY AFFECT
KCSM/KHBR PRIOR TO SUNSET. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 03Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/ISOLATED TSRA IN
NORTHERN OK ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...
STORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED IN WESTERN OK...AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP IS WEAKEST. WE STILL EXPECT A BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEN
MOVE EAST. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUN CWA
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN THE OUN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING...SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE LEFT AS IS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER... MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MAY RESULT IN
MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A RED FLAG WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE COOLER IN OK...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS IN FAR WESTERN OK AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 81 56 78 / 50 30 10 0
HOBART OK 57 80 52 78 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 88 58 84 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 58 73 47 80 / 20 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 73 55 74 / 60 50 20 0
DURANT OK 67 84 58 78 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009>011-
014>017-021>023-033>038-044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-
021-033-034-036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
02/25/03
TAYLOR
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