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Warning Decision Updates Associated with the
May 10, 2010 Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma

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FLUS74 KOUN 101845
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
139 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

TORNADO THREAT RAPIDLY INCREASING

THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MODIFY VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY MID AFTERNOON EXPECT CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
4000 ACROSS A WIDE AREA...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. ONCE
STORMS INITIATE...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A RAPID EVOLUTION TO
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A SUBSTATIAL RISK FOR STRONG-VIOLENT
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. RAPIDLY GROWING AND DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE DRYLINE
SUGGEST INITIATION IS NOT FAR AWAY.

GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTION TOWARD EAST-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WE
PLAN TO ISSUE LONG (LENGTH) POLYGONS...WITH A PREDISPOSITION TOWARD
TORNADO WARNINGS IF MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS DETECTED.

EXPECTED TIMING OF STORMS WILL PLACE THEM INTO THE OKC METRO AND
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND RUSH HOUR WHICH WILL MAKE THE SITUATION EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.

$$

ANDRA
 
FLUS74 KOUN 102106
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

TORNADO OUTBREAK UNFOLDING.

STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BECOME TORNADIC AS THEY ENCOUNTERED
LOWER LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT
OTHER STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREATS FROM
THOSE STORMS UNTIL THEY REACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VERY HIGH CAPE,
SHEAR, AND LOW LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS WILL ALLOW THEM TO
TRANSITION TO TORNADO PRODUCTION.

NEW ECHOES NORTH OF WICHITA MOUNTAINS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A
TORNADO THREAT TO OKC METRO AREA.

ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS SITUATIONS WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE.

$$

ANDRA
 
FLUS74 KOUN 102155
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SUB CLOUD CONVERGENCE RAPIDLY INCREASING WEST OF TUTTLE. THI STORM
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO.

THIS STORM WILL RAPIDLY ENTER THE OKC METRO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

$$

ANDRA

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