Middle Tennessee Weather News
A Publication of the National Weather Service Office in Old Hickory - Serving middle Tennessee Since 1870
Spring Edition, March 1, 2003, Volume II, Issue I
This issue begins the second year of Middle Tennessee Weather News. Thanks to those outside the National Weather Service who have contributed articles and photographs, and thanks to those of you who read and comment upon our newsletter, the online publication has already endured a lengthy evolution since last year's maiden voyage.
Headline - Flooding demonstrates is deadly nature once again.
Featured Article - The National Weather Service scores high in a recent federal review, and a National Research Council committee releases the results of its study on the public-academic-private weather relationship.
NWS Spotlight - Following several almost winter-less winters, middle Tennessee residents were treated to a season that offered a whole lot more than just snow.
Guest Column - Kevin Skarupa, News 2 morning meteorologist, shares the story about how he got into weather.
The State of the Water - According to National Weather Service hydrologist Mike Murphy, the flood potential for middle Tennessee this spring is higher than normal.
Meteorology 101 - Darrell Massie highlights some recent upgrades to his ever-expanding online meteorology library.
National Weather Service Outreach - It was a busy winter for the outreach team. We will tell you where we went, and how you can arrange for a meteorologist to give a weather talk to your group.
Photograph of the Quarter - Bobby Boyd captures a remarkable sunset vista at Old Hickory.
Mark A. Rose
Editor
Mark.A.Rose@noaa.gov
Flooding kills
February provided middle Tennessee with its share of heavy rainfall and flooding. The excessive precipitation reached its zenith on the 14th and 15th, when Nashville measured 4.04 inches. Many areas received signicantly more, especially in areas close to the Alabama state line. A significant number of the mid state's rivers, creeks, and streams swelled out of their banks, prompting a string of flood watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.
Unfortunately, despite the advanced warning, loss of life could not be entirely precluded. During each flooding event, the National Weather Service takes care to remind the public that flooding is the number one weather killer in the United States, and that most flooding deaths occur in automobiles.
Sadly, two children were killed when a Nissan SX sedan, which was driven by their aunt, was swept off a bridge going over the Elk River on Veto Road, 6½ miles southwest of Elkton (Giles County) around 6:30 p.m. The aunt was found and rescued 3 hours later, clinging to a tree, but the children did not survive (a boy, 10, and a female, 7).
The NWS finished near the top in a government review process to gauge the effectiveness of certain federal programs.
This year, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) used a review process called the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) to review and rate 234 federal programs for purpose, planning, management, and results/accountability. On a scale of 100, the average program score was in the low 60s.
The NWS was awarded the sixth highest score of the programs that were rated, receiving scores between 85 and 100 – some of the highest in this review. The PART program summary described the NWS as well-managed and results-oriented, with a strategic plan that sets forth clear long-term goals that are tied to program performance measures. In response to these findings, the President’s FY04 Budget, released February 3, 2003, provides increases to support continued improvement in key performance areas.
Meanwhile, a year-long study on the public-academic-private partnership for providing U.S. weather and climate services supports the National Weather Service mission and concludes that the partnership is basically sound, functioning well, and serving the needs of the Nation.
"Cooperation, rather than conflict, appears to be the normal mode of operation," the study authored by a National Research Council committee noted. "Despite occasional friction, the three-sector system works," wrote committee chair John A. Armstrong in a letter about the report to Jack Kelly. Armstrong added, "The committee judges this friction to be an acceptable price to pay for excellent weather services" but also recommends that partners work harder to lessen the friction. The study recommends that the NWS be more open in decision-making, and seek more input from all interested partners and the public.
"The study is a must read for everyone who is serious about making the Nation's weather and climate enterprise a success," said Ed Johnson, Director, Strategic Planning and Policy Office.
"At times, our employees are uncertain about what they can and can't do within the public-private partnership. Some have worried that the weather service mission would be changed to exclude basic forecasting," said Johnson. "This study confirms our mission and shifts our focus to working better with all of our partners."
Here are some report highlights:
The study, "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services," published January 30, 2003, was prepared by a panel of respected experts from inside and outside the meteorological community and chaired by Armstrong, former Senior Vice-President for Science and Technology at IBM. (Source: NWS Focus)
WOW! What a winter. After lamenting in the last newsletter that Nashville (and most of middle Tennessee) had experienced below normal snowfall for each of the past six seasons, the winter of 2002-2003 disappointed no one.
Although December was wetter than usual, the absence of wintry precipitation did not bode well for those wanting some long-overdue snowfall. At 5.81 inches, rainfall registered 1.27 inches above normal, with the mean monthly temperature coming in right at normal -- 40.5 degrees. Still, December is not really know for its heavy snowfalls, as the city sees just ½ inch of the stuff during a normal month.
The long wait for a major snowstorm finally ended on January 16, when a spectacular winter storm dumped 7 inches of snow on Nashville, paralyzing roadways, and closing schools for days. It was the largest snowfall in the metro area since an 8.7-inch measurement on March 19, 1996. The snow was widespread across middle Tennessee, with Gallatin topping everyone with 8 inches. Nashville received another 1.4" of snowfall before the end of the month, for a total of 8.4 inches -- the snowiest January since 1988.
Middle Tennessee's re-introduction to heavy snowfall did not end in January, though. Another winter storm dropped 4.1" on Nashville, and through February 25, snowfall at the National Weather Service's office in Old Hickory (the official snowfall measuring site for Nashville) had totaled another 6.7" for the month, for a seasonal total of 15.1 inches. This is six inches above the normal seasonal total, and is the most received since the winter of 1995-96.
But snow wasn't the only story this winter. It got cold, too. On four occasions in January the temperature at Nashville International Airport dropped into the single digits, bottoming out with a morning low of 1 degree on a still snow-covered January 18. Many outlying stations reported sub-zero readings that morning, and again on the 24th, when Nashville's temperature dropped to 2 degrees. January finished with a monthly mean temperature of 32.8 degrees, which came in 3.9 degrees below normal. Also, the average low temperature was a frigid 24.6 degrees. Following an unusually warm first nine days of January, the average daily mean temperature was 29.1 degrees, a remarkable 7.6 degrees below normal.
February brought an additional twist: heavy rain, flooding, and clouds. We have dealt with the flooding in the headline section of this newsletter, but the clouds came, and seemed never to go away. During the 12 day stretch from February 14-25, the National Weather Service measured a total of 140 minutes of sunshine at its Old Hickory station, with seven of those days seeing no direct sunlight at all. The "sunniest" day during the period was February 24th, when 55 minutes of direct sunlight were recorded, still just 8% of the possible available sunshine. And as of this writing, the sun is still AWOL.
It all began in fifth grade when one of my friends ran over to me and said, "We are going to see a foot of snow tonight." Everyone remembers the first two thoughts they had when they heard those words as a child: building
snowmen and no school tomorrow! With eager anticipation, I went home and watched all the television stations and listened to all the radio stations, they were all saying 6-12" of snow. I eventually fell asleep on the living room couch at 2 am watching the Weather Channel. The next thing I knew my mom was waking me up telling me I had to get up and go to school. Confused, I ran to the window and not a flake of snow had fallen that night. The sun was out!
While I was being yelled at by my teachers for not doing my homework, I wondered why do weathermen do that? Say it will be cold when it winds up warm? Or promise a foot of snow and not a flake appears? Ironically enough, that was the event that started it all for me -- a blown forecast! Over the next five or six years I went to the library and read books about
snowstorms, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Once I got into high school, it amazed me that I could actually build a career around what was slowly turning into my passion: meteorology.
Everyday I would watch the Weather Channel, hour after hour. It took me awhile to realize the local forecast and maps were same each hour, but I enjoyed it just the same. A lot of meteorologists my age will tell you the same thing: they were a product of the Weather Channel. I finally decided on Lyndon State College for the education that would fulfill my passion. It's a very small school in northern Vermont. (It snowed on my graduation day in May!) There I learned everything from how to forecast (and how not to forecast) to what makes weather work. Then a class in my junior year called "TV Weather Performance" hit my schedule. Being a very quiet, shy child, I didn't figure TV was something that would intrigue
me. The idea of standing up in front of your classmates, let alone thousands of people made me hesitate at first, but low and behold somehow here I am today. I still maintain I would be just as happy working for the National Weather Service or doing weather research. My passion is for the weather itself; the TV part just truly happened.
Most TV people will start their career in a small community and slowly move their way up the ladder to a large city. That small community for me was Mason City, Iowa. I spent three years there forecasting tornadoes, blizzards, and flooding, learning on the fly, literally, right out of college. It was a great experience I will never forget. After stops in Manchester, New Hampshire and West Palm Beach, Florida, my wife and I are thrilled to be settled here in middle Tennessee.
No doubt about it, I have a great job. I get to visit 100 schools a year talking to kids that have the same enthusiasm I did for weather when I was their age. The early wake-up call (1:30 am) allows me to have afternoons to myself, and it wouldn't be a day in the weather business without a caller asking me to come over and shovel the 5 inches of partly cloudy conditions I forecasted.
Flood outlooks are routinely issued in late winter and spring. They are based on analysis of soil moisture, river and stream levels, reservoir levels, snow cover, river ice, and future precipitation patterns.
Excessive rain and flooding are most likely to occur during late winter and spring in middle Tennessee. During this time of the year, when vegetation is still dormant and soil temperatures are low, rainfall quickly runs off over land and into rivers and streams.
Rainfall across middle Tennessee is well above normal for the first three weeks of February and for the year. An average of three to four inches, with locally up to six inches of rain, fell over middle Tennessee during Presidents' Day weekend alone. As a result of the recent heavy rain, soils are nearly saturated, and water levels on area rivers and streams are well above normal. The main stem of the Tennessee River is above flood stage at Savannah in Hardin County, Tennessee at this time (February 21). Flood storage in area reservoirs is below normal.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for March calls for near normal temperatures and precipitation for middle Tennessee. However, the spring outlook, encompassing the months of March, April, and May, calls for near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
The five-member outreach team at your National Weather Service office in Old Hickory hit the road for ten weather talks during the normally slow winter season. Various members of the outreach team visited Dover, Lewisburg, Lawrenceburg, Lafayette, Lebanon, Fayetteville, Mt. Juliet, and McMinnville. Among the audiences were four Rotary Clubs, one Kiwanis Club, one Chamber of Commerce, a high school, a junior high school, and two elementary schools, with a total audience of 546 middle Tennessee residents.
As of February 25, the outreach team has seven weather talks booked for March, three in April, one in June, and one in August. If you would like to schedule a weather talk for your group, send your request to Mark A. Rose. Outside of the education talks we give to students, our topics include tornado safety, flooding, aviation weather, lightning, winter weather, historical weather, unusual weather, agricultural weather, and weather for medical groups. We would also like to get into some of the homeschool associations around the mid state. No group is ever too small.
We are proud to announce a new section in our meteorology library dealing with "Weather Forecasting" (including information on forecasting methods, interpreting meteorological data, as well as a few hands-on exercises). The main webpage for "Weather Forecasting" can be found at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/educate/weatherpg4.html.
Hands-on laboratory exercises are located at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/educate/current_environment.html and http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/educate/Texas_forecasting.html.
Also, a new-and-expanded section on ozone measurement has been added to our website at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/ozone.html.
If you have a unique weather photograph you would like to share, please either e-mail it to the editor, or send it to National Weather Service, 500 Weather Station Rd., Old Hickory, TN 37138, Attn: Mark A. Rose. If you mail your photograph(s), we will scan them and mail them right back.
National Weather Service one of the best-performing federal agencies
We asked for it, we got it
Weather or not?
Spring flood potential outlook
On the road again
New additions to the online meteorology library
Photograph of the quarter
Our resident amateur photography, Bobby Boyd, snaps a couple of remarkable sunset photographs that qualify as this issue's photograph of the quarter.
The swirling cloud pattern is uncommon, and appear to be cirrus. At any rate, if you right-click the photographs and expand them, you might be able to see a few virga shafts, consisting of ice crystals, below the cloud base.
Finally, storm spotter Sharon Prince of Franklin County sent us a worthwhile honorable mention with this photograph of a rare, nearly symmetrical cirrus formation, almost in the shape of a cross.
