Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for Nov, Dec 2013-Jan 2014

 

 

What the 90-day outlook says, and doesn't say


The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued its national three-month
outlook for November, December 2013 and January 2014.

So, what does this outlook mean to someone here in Middle
Tennessee? you ask. Well, it depends on how you interpret it.

For instance, take a look at the temperature outlook:


 




There are three categories used by CPC to define the type
of weather expected:  "A,"  "B," and "EC."


These categories are defined thusly:

A= There is at least a 33.33% probability that the
      temperatures will trend above normal,
      and this is deemed the most likely of the three
      categories to be experienced.


B= There is at least a 33.33% probability that the
      temperatures will trend below normal,
      and this is deemed the most likely of the three
      categories to be experienced.


EC= There are equal chances that temperatures
         will trend below normal, trend above normal,
         or trend near normal.

So, based on the above map, there is a
significant chance that temperatures will trend above
normal in Middle Tennessee (i.e., a 33.33-40%
chance). This indicates a switch from the same
outlook issued back in September, when no preference in
temperature departure was noted for the Mid-State.

It is interesting that there is no part of the United States
which is indicated to have a statistically significant
chance for colder-than-normal temperatures, since
oftentimes when one part of the U.S. experiences
colder-than-normal weather, another part experiences
warmer-than-normal temperatures. In addition, this is the
first outlook for the November-December-January
period that spreads a significant chance for above-normal
temperatures northeastward into the Tennessee
Valley. So, we'll have to keep an eye out for later
updates during the coming weeks to see if this trend
continues.

The latest 3-month precipitation forecast (NDJ)
offers pretty much the same  thing as was seen
in the previous forecast for that period: a "flip of the
coin" type option for the Mid State. However,
if you happen to live over Texas or the southeastern
United States, you'll stand a 33.33-40.00+% chance
of experiencing precipitation that trends below normal.

That precipitation outlook is provided below:




So, for Middle Tennessee the three-month outlook
for November, December and January,
statistically-speaking, is now trending toward
warmer-than-normal temperatures. In the precipitation
department, things could just as easily trend wet,
dry, or near normal, although there is at least a
hint that conditions might trend a bit
drier than normal.



     

 



Return to Latest News

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.