New Spring Flood Outlook is Now Available

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER...SLIDELL LA
130 PM CST WEDNESDAY MARCH 6 2013

 

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY - SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER - SLIDELL...LA
VALID FOR THURSDAY MARCH 7 2013

 

STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

 

...INTRODUCTION....

THE PAST TWO MONTHS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS EXPERIENCED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY.
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER RED
RIVER VALLEY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

DURING THE WINTER, SNOWFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE LMRFC AREA BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT ALLOWED
SNOW DEPTHS TO ACCUMULATE TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS. CURRENTLY, SNOW
DEPTHS ARE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE REFLECTIVE OF THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND RAIN HAS
PUSHED SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTH MISSOURI
AND NORTH ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

 

...MISSISSIPPI RIVER BELOW CHESTER IL AND OHIO RIVER BELOW
SMITHLAND DAM IL (WFO PAH/MEG/JAN/LIX)...

SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH 6 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

RECENT STORMS HAVE GENERATED SNOW DEPTH OVER IOWA, NORTH MISSOURI
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS LESS THAN 2 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS WERE LIGHTER OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BEING CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS GENERALLY MATCH THE
RECENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL PATTERNS WITH ONLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI,
RED, AND UPPER/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEYS EXPERIENCING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER WHILE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS ABATED LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RISING FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BUT NO
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                             3/6
MISSISSIPPI RIVER              THEBES IL     66%
OHIO RIVER                      CAIRO IL     63%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             MEMPHIS TN     63%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER       ARKANSAS CITY AR     75%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS     76%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS     74%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   RED RIVER LANDING LA     72%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         BATON ROUGE LA     72%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         NEW ORLEANS LA     73%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER          SIMMESPORT LA     77%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI, LOWER OHIO, AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF
ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT;
COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

...FRENCH BROAD/UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE AND
HIWASSEE BASINS (WFO GSP)...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, THE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE MINIMAL SNOW DEPTHS
BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO ANY
FUTURE FLOODING.

THE STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE GENERALLY REFLECTIVE OF
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS. STREAMFLOW
AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INDICATE
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

FLOODING HAS RECEDED FROM A FEW WEEKS AGO AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE DAILY STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

         1/9  1/23  2/6  2/20  3/6
FRENCH BROAD RIVER          ASHEVILLE NC    79%  138% 139%   95% 156%
PIGEON RIVER                    HEPCO NC    74%  165% 126%  123% 186%
TUCKASEGEE RIVER          BRYSON CITY NC    99%  183% 124%  123% 164%
LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER       NEEDMORE NC    67%  134% 141%  101% 146%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THE FRENCH BROAD...UPPER LITTLE
TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE...AND PIGEON RIVER BASINS.

...UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON BASINS (WFO RNK)...

STREAMFLOWS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS ARE NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. THE DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN
BELOW.

    1/9  1/23  2/6 2/20 3/6
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER        SALTVILLE VA    65% 172% 123%  73% 234%
MID FORK HOLSTON RVR  SEVEN MILE FORD VA    67% 228% 109%  78% 274%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON RIVER BASINS.

...EAST TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY (WFO MRX/FFC)...

EARLIER IN THE YEAR, HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED FLOODING AT A NUMBER OF
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY. STREAMFLOWS HAVE
RETURNED TO NORMAL BUT YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL CAUSED STREAMFLOWS TO
RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR
NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED PERCENT
OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
CLINCH RIVER                CLEVELAND VA     236%
CLINCH RIVER                 TAZEWELL TN     310%
POWELL RIVER                   ARTHUR TN     425%
EMORY RIVER                   OAKDALE TN     395%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN THE TENNESSEE BASIN ARE GIVEN
BELOW.

                                             3/6
ABOVE CHATTANOOGA TN     99%

...DUCK/BUFFALO/ELK RIVER BASINS (WFO OHX)...

RAINFALL HAS TRENDED TO BELOW NORMAL FOR A NUMBER OF WEEKS BUT YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SOME MINOR RISES ACROSS THE AREA. MINOR FLOODING
OCCURRED AT FEW LOCATIONS IN JANUARY BUT STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED TO
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
DUCK RIVER                   COLUMBIA TN     44%
DUCK RIVER                SHELBYVILLE TN    155%
BUFFALO RIVER              LOBELVILLE TN     78%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCES OF SPRING RAINFALL...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE BASINS.

...FLINT/PAINT ROCK/BIG NANCE BASINS (WFO HUN)...

MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
YEAR BUT STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SOME MINOR RISES TODAY AND
STREAMFLOWS HAVE INCREASED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
PAINT ROCK RIVER            WOODVILLE AL      304%
FLINT RIVER                BROWNSBORO AL      319%
BIG NANCE RIVER             COURTLAND AL      290%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA BASINS.

...OBION/LOOSAHATCHIE/HATCHIE/WOLF BASINS (WFO MEG)...

IN JANUARY, HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA
BUT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEDED TO SEASONAL LEVELS. RECENT RAIN HAS
GENERATE SOME MINOR RISES BUT STREAMFLOWS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
HATCHIE RIVER                 BOLIVAR TN     62%
WOLF RIVER                 GERMANTOWN TN     57%
OBION RIVER                     OBION TN    106%
LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER          ARLINGTON TN    162%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN TENNESSEE BASINS.

...ST FRANCIS RIVER BASIN (WFO MEG/PAH)...

HEAVY RAINFALL IN MID JANUARY RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
ST. FRANCIS RIVER BUT STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED DURING THE PAST 30
DAYS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. RECENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS
INCREASED OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT TO ABOVE NORMAL. NO FLOODING
IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED
DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
ST. FRANCIS RIVER           PATTERSON MO    118%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE ST. FRANCIS BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
FOR THE ST. FRANCIS RESERVOIRS ARE GIVE BELOW.

                                              3/6
WAPPAPELLO RES. MO      97%

...BLACK/WHITE RIVER BASINS (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH/LZK/TSA)...

RECENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS CAUSED STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS
TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. RESERVOIRS ARE BELOW SEASONAL
CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS FOR THE UPPER WHITE BASIN. MINOR FLOODING
ON THE WHITE RIVER AT AUGUSTA SHOULD RECEDE OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE
SEASONAL FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE CACHE RIVER AT PATTERSON.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
BLACK RIVER               ANNAPOLIS MO      110%
BLACK RIVER               BLACK ROCK AR     113%
WHITE RIVER                  NEWPORT AR     107%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES
FOR THE BLACK/WHITE BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
CLEARWATER RES. MO     99%
BEAVER RES. AR    100%
TABLE ROCK RES. MO    100%
BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%
NORFORK RES. AR    100%
GREERS FERRY RES. AR     97%

...LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN BELOW PINE BLUFF AR (WFO LZK)...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...BUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE RIVER
WEST OF THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. OBSERVED FLOW
ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 36000 CFS WHICH IS
47 % OF NORMAL COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR
EARLY MARCH. BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN.

...OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA (WFO LZK/SHV/JAN)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER SECTIONS OF THE OUACHITA BASIN
WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DOWNSTREAM AT MONROE. OVERALL SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS GENERALLY NORMAL. AT THIS TIME, NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING IN THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR     45%
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA     95%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE
RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
LAKE GRESSON AR    100%

...LOWER RED BASIN BELOW FULTON AR (WFO FWD/SHV/LCH)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF FULTON
ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER RED BASIN AND
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS BELOW NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER RED RIVER BASIN. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
RED RIVER                  SHREVEPORT LA     20%
RED RIVER                  ALEXANDRIA LA     21%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR
FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                            3/6
COOPER RES. TX    100%
TEXARKANA RES. TX    100%
LAKE O` PINES TX    109%

...BIG BLACK BASINS IN MISSISSIPPI (WFO JAN)...

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED FLOODING ALONG THE BIG
BLACK RIVER BUT DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT
IS ABOVE NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED
DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
BIG BLACK RIVER                  WEST MS     17%
BIG BLACK RIVER                BOVINA MS     37%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR
THE BIG BLACK RIVER BASIN.

...YAZOO BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI (WFO MEG/JAN)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO RIVER
BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE
GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/6
YAZOO RIVER                 GREENWOOD MS    100%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
YAZOO RIVER BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES ARE
GIVEN BELOW.

 

                                              3/6
ARKABUTLA RES. MS      95%
SARDIS RES. MS      93%
ENID RES. MS      92%
GRENADA RES. MS      83%

...CALCASIEU/MERMENTAU BASINS IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA (WFO LCH)...

DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS, HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING OVER THE MERMENTAU BASIN AND MORE SEASONAL FLOODING ALONG
THE CALCASIEU BASIN. DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK HAS ALLOWED
LOCATIONS TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS. SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE MERMENTAU BASIN AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE CALCASIEU BASIN. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED
DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
CALCASIEU RIVER              GLENMORA LA      15%
CALCASIEU RIVER                KINDER LA      37%
MERMENTAU RIVER             MERMENTAU LA      12%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MERMENTAU BASIN AND AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CALCASIEU BASIN.

...PEARL RIVER BASIN (WFO JAN LIX)...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS THE PEARL
RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE UPPER PEARL RIVER
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PEARL RIVER CONTINUE TO RECEDE BUT
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEW FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN
BELOW.

                                              3/6
PEARL RIVER                  CARTHAGE MS      41%
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS      59%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS      88%
PEARL RIVER                  BOGALUSA LA     214%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN.

...AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS (WFO LIX)...

RAINFALL IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY PRODUCED PERIODS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE
RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
AMITE RIVER                DARLINGTON LA      20%
AMITE RIVER            DENHAM SPRINGS LA      25%
COMITE RIVER             OLIVE BRANCH LA      21%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER               FOLSOM LA      35%
TICKFAW RIVER                  HOLDEN LA      29%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER               ROBERT LA      44%

 

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AMITE...COMITE...AND NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

...PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WFO JAN MOB LIX).....

HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED EXTENSIVE FLOODING
OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/6
LEAF RIVER                     MCLAIN MS      53%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER        LEAKESVILLE MS      96%
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS      78%

BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN.

 

...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH EQUAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BELOW NORMAL CHANCES ARE INDICATED ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRINGFLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2013.



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