Fall 2013 Climate Summary: Drier than Normal across SE GA & NE FL

The 2013 Fall (Sep/Oct/Nov) season ended with a wetter than normal November, due mainly to a strong gulf of mexico low that tracked across NE FL & SE GA just prior to Thanksgiving. But, overall due to the lack of any tropical cyclone activity the entire fall season generally ended with below normal precipitation totals across the region. Temperatures for the entire Fall season ended up close to normal values, but a few earlier than normal freeze events during the mid to late parts of November across the region did keep average temperatures below normal, mainly across the inland areas. The main story during the Fall season was the dominant Northeast Flow across the forecast area which resulted in windy conditions along the coast and poor boating conditions over the adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. The Northeast flow brought some rain bands into the coastal counties, but flooding rains did not occur and the main impacts were elevated tidal/water levels and beach erosion in some locations.

Normal Dates for First Freeze of the Season:

Jacksonville, FL: December 6th, THIS WINTER WAS November 28th (8 days early)

Gainesville, FL: December 4th, THIS WINTER WAS November 28th (6 days early)

Alma, GA: November 26th, THIS WINTER WAS November 13th (13 days early)

St. Simons Island, GA: December 20th, THIS WINTER WAS November 28th (22 days early)

November 2013 - Observed Precipitation Image #1 BELOW - Rainfall amounts were generally in the 2 to 4 inch range with isolated higher amounts around 6 inches in some NE FL locations.

Jacksonville, FL (JAX): November, 2013 Monthly Observed Precipitation Valid at 12/1/2013 1200 UTC - Created 12/2/13 13:38 UTC

November 2013 - Percent of Normal Precipitation Image #2 BELOW - Rainfall across the forecast area was generally well above normal for the month, mainly due to the Gulf of Mexico storm that crossed SE GA & NE FL on the 26th and daily rainfall records were set at Gainesville, FL and Alma & St. Simons Island, GA.

Jacksonville, FL (JAX): November, 2013 Monthly Percent of Normal Precipitation Valid at 12/1/2013 1200 UTC - Created 12/2/13 13:41 UTC

Fall (Sep/Oct/Nov) 2013 - Observed Precipitation Image #3 BELOW - Rainfall amounts were generally in the 4 to 8 inch range across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley of North Florida, while 8 to 12 inch amounts were common along the coast and the rest of NE FL in the Northeast Flow pattern and where some fronts stalled during the fall months.

Jacksonville, FL (JAX): Current 90-Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 12/1/2013 1200 UTC - Created 12/2/13 14:08 UTC

Fall (Sep/Oct/Nov) 2013 - Percent of Normal Precipitation Image #4 BELOW - As can be seen, almost all of the region experienced below normal precipitation values this Fall Season due to the lack of tropical cyclone activity even with the above normal precipitation amounts during the month of November. These rainfall departures have allowed portions of SE GA & NE FL to fall into D0 (Abnormally Dry) drought conditions as depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor website.

Jacksonville, FL (JAX): Current 90-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation Valid at 12/1/2013 1200 UTC - Created 12/2/13 14:11 UTC

Table 1  - November 2013 Climate Station Information below

Nov 2013 Climate Data Average Temp Monthly High Monthly Low Total Precip Max Daily Pcpn Highest Wind Gust
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 62.3 F (+0.1) 82F on 23rd 30F on 28th 2.84" (+0.73") 1.47" on 26th 42 mph on 4th
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 64.9 F (+2.1) 86F on 1st 29F on 28th 3.31" (+1.25") 1.71" on 26th 37 mph on 27th
Alma, GA (AMG) 57.8 F (-2.1) 79F on 18th 28F on 28th 3.93" (+1.45") 2.60" on 26th 31 mph on 27th
St. Simons Island, GA (SSI) 60.7 F (-1.1) 80F on 1st 31F on 28th 3.17" (+1.14") 1.61" on 2nd 38 mph on 4th
 

Table 2 - Fall (Sep/Oct/Nov) 2013 Climate Station Information below

Fall 2013 Climate Data Average Temp Days > = 90F (Normal) Freeze Days (Normal) Total Precip Days w/Rain (Normal) Thunderstorm Days Days with Fog & Days with Dense Fog
Jacksonville, FL 70.4 F (+0.1) 10 days (9) 1 day (1) 8.00" (-6.23") 24th Driest 27 days (27) 10 days 65 days & 6 days
Gainesville, FL 72.1 F (+1.5) 20 days (9) 1 day (1) 6.59" (-2.77") 28th Driest 20 days (25) 5 days 59 days & 5 days
Alma, GA 67.7 F (-0.8) 14 days (10) 4 days (2) 6.77" (-2.38") 25th Driest 18 days (22) 6 days 66 days & 23 days
St Simons Island, GA 69.7 F (-0.3) 6 days (3) 1 day (0) 15.23" (+2.98") 20th Wettest 29 days (24) 13 days 40 days & 5 days

Outlook for the Winter Months (Dec/Jan/Feb) from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) website is calling for equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across SE GA & NE FL, while there will be greater chances for the below normal precipitation values to continue, with further drought development possible.

Jason Hess - Climate Focal Point - jason.hess@noaa.gov



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