November & Fall 2012 - Cooler and Drier than Normal across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia
The month of November continued the trend of drier than normal conditions across the region this autumn season. Temperatures for the month were actually well below normal even with a start to the month with temperatures near record levels in the lower to middle 80s during the first week of November. A cool and damp cold frontal passage during the second week of the month led to a full week of cloudy and drizzly conditions across the forecast area with several days with maximum temperatures reaching only in the 50s. The last week of the month was punctuated by a sharp cold frontal passage that led to the first sub-freezing temperatures of the season over inland areas with all three inland climate stations reporting sub-freezing temperatures on the mornings of the 25th and the 26th along with widespread frost conditions the weekend after Thanksgiving. While this November will go down as a Top 20 coldest month for all 4 climate stations, the main reason for the below normal average temperatures, was the cold daytime temperatures during the week-long stretch of cloudy and damp conditions during the middle of the month. In fact, for Jacksonville this November was the 6th coldest on record dating back to 1871. Rainfall was also very sparse during the month with only minimal rainfall events from the mainly dry cold fronts that tracked across the forecast area and will go down as a Top 10 driest month for almost all of the climate stations. In fact, Gainesville recorded its 2nd driest November on record with only 0.05" of rainfall, while St Simons Island and Jacksonville reporting only a quarter of an inch as well. The local climate stations used for this summary: include Jacksonville, FL (JAX - history dates back to 1871), Gainesville, FL (GNV - history dates back to 1890), and across southeast Georgia, Alma (AMG) and St Simons Island (SSI) whose climate history dates back to 1948. To access daily and seasonal records for the climate sites in the NWS Jacksonville area please visit the climate section of our website.
|November 2012||Average Temp (Departure)||All-time Rank||Monthly High||Monthly Low||Precipitation (Departure)||All-time Rank|
|Jacksonville, FL||58.0 F ( - 4.2 F )||6th Coldest||84 on 4th||30 on 25th||0.27" ( - 1.84" )||13th Driest|
|Gainesville, FL||59.7 F ( - 3.1 F )||14th Coldest||84 on 3rd||31 on 26th||0.05" ( - 2.01" )||2nd Driest|
|Alma, GA||56.0 F ( - 3.9 F )||14th Coldest||85 on 4th||27 on 26th||0.67" ( - 1.81" )||9th Driest|
|St Simons Island, GA||58.7 F ( - 3.1 F )||17th Coldest||83 on 4th||38 on 26th||0.23" ( - 1.80" )||4th Driest|
For the entire fall season (September, October and November) the cooler than normal temperatures over the past month have brought down average temperatures enough to allow for depatures up to 1 degree below normal for the autumn months across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. The fall season of below normal rainfall was a marked change from the tropical storms and heavy rainfall that impacted the summertime months with above normal precipitation across the region. This autumn rainfall amounts of well under 10 inches were reported for the 3 month period and drought conditions have re-developed across the forecast area, mainly across southeast Georgia where Alma only received 3.23 inches, making this the 3rd driest fall season on record there and areas of moderate to severe drought have been reported across portions of inland southeast Georgia. To see the latest drought conditons across the region please visit the drought monitor website.
|Fall Season 2012 (Sep/Oct/Nov)||Average Temp (Departure)||Precipitation (Departure)||All-time Season Rank|
|Jacksonville, FL||69.0 F ( - 1.3 F )||9.87" ( - 4.36" )||46th Driest|
|Gainesville, FL||70.4 F ( - 0.2 F )||7.20" ( - 2.16" )||31st Driest|
|Alma, GA||67.5 F ( - 1.0 F )||3.23" ( - 5.92" )||3rd Driest|
|St Simons Island, GA||69.7 F ( - 0.3 F )||6.07" ( - 6.18" )||8th Driest|
The outlook for the winter season is for equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida and this forecast can be seen at the Climate Prediction Center website. The uncertainty in this winter's forecast is mainly due to the current neutral phase of ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and also due to the fact that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which can impact temperatures and precipitation locally is not predictable more than 2 weeks in advance.
Jason Hess - firstname.lastname@example.org
NWS Jacksonville - Climate Focal Point