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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tornado

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**Tornado**
Risk	Description
None	No Chance
Low	1-14% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point
Moderate	15 to 29% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point
High	30% or greater chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point

355
FLUS44 KMOB 030054 AAB
HWOMOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
754 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-040100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
754 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS FORECAST TO
BE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES
NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GENERAL AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
ACROSS OR WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

OUR BEST ESTIMATION FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH 6 TO
8 INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD MAINLY BE THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE INTERIOR OF THESE COUNTIES FROM EARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO
CONSTRAINTS OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED.

IMMEDIATE COASTAL RESIDENTS CAN ALSO EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS AT THE TIME OF BOTH HIGH TIDES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.
LOW TIDES IN BETWEEN WILL NOT RECEDE THAT MUCH DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS.

ALSO FOR THOSE LIVING ON OCEAN-FACING BARRIER ISLANDS EXPECT SOME
WAVE RUN UP TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...HIGH WAVES IN THE LOCAL SURF
ZONE AND POTENTIAL MINOR EROSION FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL RAINBANDS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GULF.

$$

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-040100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
754 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. AT A MINIMUM...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. WATERSPOUTS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS HAZARD.

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office