000
FXUS62 KMLB 251430
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

INTENSE SQUALL LINE IN THE EASTERN GULF HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO WARM NEAR THE BIG BEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VEERING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW (SUBEQUENTLY REDUCING SRH). WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG...MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
TRANSPORT SEVERE WINDS (58+ MPH) DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO. AS
EXPECTED...THICK CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GULF CONVECTION (IN STRONG DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW)
WILL ALSO INHIBIT HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BIGGEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL TRANSFORM INTO A MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED GHWO THREATS
ACCORDINGLY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING AND HAIL AND
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...(PREV DISC)...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS
MORNING WITH PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR AND SFC WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS COMMON.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE NMRS TO WDSPRD IFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON WITH SFC WND GUSTS OF 40 KTS IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER COVERAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8
FT AT BUOY 41009 WITH SHORT WAVE PERIODS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FLAGLER BEACH
TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.


&&

$$

HIRSCH