000 WTUS82 KMLB 251005 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 251615- HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 600 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 ...HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT AUGUSTINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT AUGUSTINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES FROM MARTIN TO VOLUSIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA... AND OKEECHOBEE. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES IN ANTICIPATION OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL MOVE NEAR OR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND THEN TAKE DIRECT AIM ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND COCOA BEACH. DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE SIZE OF JEANNE...ALL COUNTIES WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY WITH JEANNE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE FLORIDA LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ANY AND ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE OR A LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS TODAY. IMPORTANTLY...PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN YOUR AREA. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR DRIVING TODAY...BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL OF PASSING SQUALLS. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF JEANNE WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY APPROACH COASTAL SECTIONS AND THEN INLAND SECTIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THESE BANDS WILL CONTAIN THE FIRST GUSTY WINDS OF JEANNE. MOTORISTS DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. THOSE PERFORMING OTHER WIND SENSITIVE TASKS...SUCH AS BOARDING UP WINDOWS OR SECURING PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED ROOFS...SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WHILE WORKING. STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER THREATS... AND PLEASE BE DILIGENT TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLAN OF ACTION. DO NOT BE COMPLACENT. OBJECTIVELY CONSIDER YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...DEADLY STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAIN. TAKE ALL REASONABLE AND NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. BE A GOOD NEIGHBOR AND HELP OTHERS IN NEED WHEN POSSIBLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NOW THAT JEANNE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE WIND THREAT FOR JEANNE WILL ARRIVE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE WIND THREAT IS EXTREME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. JEANNE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL UNDER WAY...WITH DILIGENCE TOWARD COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...AND ORLANDO..SANFORD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN THE EVENING SATURDAY... ALSO SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR. DAMAGE FROM RECENT HURRICANES CHARLEY AND FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO COMPOUND THE WIND EFFECTS FROM JEANNE. HOMES...TREES...AND POWER GRIDS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE IN THEIR WEAKENED STATE. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE LONGER IN MANY AREAS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED. DEBRIS THAT HAS YET TO BE REMOVED HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...A HOME WITH SIGNIFICANT PREVIOUS DAMAGE...OR IN A PLACE THAT OFFERS LITTLE PROTECTION FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STRONGLY CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFE SHELTER. IF HEADING TO A SHELTER...DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. HEED ALL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS...TAKING APPROPRIATE INSTRUCTION FROM YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS. WITH 100 MPH WINDS OF CATEGORY TWO FORCE...WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIAL...UNPROTECTED DOORS...AND UNSHUTTERED WINDOWS IS COMMON. SCATTERED LARGE TREES WILL FALL...WITH LARGE DEBRIS BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES. LARGE SIGNS WILL BE EASILY BENT OR BLOWN DOWN. ALSO...SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. IF JEANNE ATTAINS CATEGORY THREE FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 110 MPH...THE DAMAGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE WITH STRUCTURAL FAILURES OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY AND TO THE IMMEDIATE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SURGE WATERS OF 4 TO 6 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WITHIN NARROWING INLETS...LOCALIZED SURGE WATERS NEAR 8 FEET MAY OCCUR. THE STORM SURGE THREAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE HIGH SINCE EFFECTS WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE DUNES ARE IN A HIGHLY WEAKENED STATE. MANY BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND EROSION...MAKING THEM VERY VULNERABLE TO FURTHER DAMAGE. INUNDATION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE BY SEA WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH SURGE AND WAVES BREACHING THE WEAKENED DUNES. NEAR SHORE ROADWAYS AND STRUCTURES ARE AT RISK. PROPERTIES AROUND INLETS AND ADJACENT CANALS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO INUNDATION AS WATER BACKS UP. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 15.8 FEET. WINDS WITH JEANNE WILL FIRST PUSH LAKE WATER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDES...RAISING WATER LEVELS THERE TO AS HIGH AS 21 FEET. THEN WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES TO AS HIGH AS 24 FEET. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME. AS A RESULT... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. THE WATER TABLE IS ALREADY HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO COPIOUS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER...INCLUDING HURRICANES CHARLEY AND FRANCES. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE STANDING WATER...AND IN SOME CASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...PROPERTIES ARE ALREADY UNDER WATER. BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE PRE-EXISTING FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. BLOCKAGE OF STORM DRAINS...STREAMS...CANALS AND OTHER NATURAL AND MAN MADE RETENTION AREAS MAY ALSO AGGRAVATE THE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT AS THESE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN FLOOD CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL RISES...WITH MAJOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OVER THE SAINT JOHNS BASIN IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...AN INITIAL RISE IN THE WATER LEVEL NEAR DELAND...ABOVE LAKE HARNEY...AND NEAR SANFORD...WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS MODERATE. AS WITH ANY HURRICANE...THERE ALWAYS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. TYPICALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. THEREFORE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL ALTER THE TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE TORNADO THREAT. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...INNER RAINBAND AND EYEWALL TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED TO ADD TO THE WIND DAMAGE IN VICINITY OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS THE MARINE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE WILL BE EXTREME. HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ALREADY BUFFETING THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS JEANNE APPROACHES. JEANNE IS FORECAST BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SEAS MAY GROW TO OVER 20 FEET LATER TODAY WITH INTRACOASTAL WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 100 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS...AS JEANNE APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH BEACH AND JUPITER INLET. PERSONS WHO MAY BE SECURING BOATS OR DOCKS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS AS IF A CATEGORY THREE LANDFALLING HURRICANE WAS APPROACHING THEIR AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DWS