National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Through early evening, a band of showers with a few embedded storms will push east of the Interstate 4 corridor but linger from Cape Canaveral to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. A few strong storms with very heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will occur from the Space and Treasure Coast to Okeechobee and south Osceola counties.

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The warm and humid air that has been feeding into the band of convection should spark the strongest storms of the day through late this afternoon or early evening...from south Osceola to south Brevard and into Okeechobee and Indian River counties. Temperatures had warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points were in the mid-upper 60s. Additionally a shallow east coast sea breeze boundary had moved just inland from the coast. The main hazard will be frequent lightning strikes but a few storms could become severe, producing hail and strong winds. Storms interacting with the sea breeze boundary could still spawn a brief tornado.

Through late afternoon, a band of showers and storms, some producing very heavy downpours, will spread across the interstate 4 corridor and Osceola county to the Volusia and Brevard county coast. A few storms may produce gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail, but the main hazard will be lightning strikes.

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Early afternoon satellite and lightning data continued to show that the line of storms that moved across the eastern gulf was holding together relatively well as warm air advection was maintaining elevated instability. Surface conditions indicated that boundary layer instability was very limited. A surge of mid-upper 60 dew point air over southwest Florida was leading to numerous showers and lightning storms breaking out ahead of the main line. This should continue to be the trend through late afternoon. The greatest chance for strong storms should be in the counties around Lake Okeechobee which had heated up into the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points had risen into the mid 60s.

At 11 am, a line of showers and storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico was moving east around 40 mph. This line should push across Lake county shortly after noon and reach the interstate 4 corridor early this afternoon. Present indications are that the main hazards will be lightning strikes, heavy downpours and gusty winds to 40 mph.

People should stay alert for the latest weather conditions as this line moves into the area.

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Satellite and lightning data show that the line of storms over the eastern gulf is holding together as it moves across the cool continental shelf waters. However, weak instability exists over the central peninsula. Some heating has occurred over southern sections, particularly along the Treasure Coast. With strong deep layer winds in the atmosphere, there is still a chance for some strong-severe storms. The greatest chances should be in southern sections where greater atmospheric instability will exist.

Through midday, a few showers may brush across Lake and Volusia counties. A line of storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move quickly eastward and should reach the west central Florida coast.

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Early morning satellite and lightning data showed a line of storms over the eastern gulf moving east at 40-50 mph. Computer models indicate that atmospheric wind fields will remain quite strong and veer in the low levels. This should allow the line of storms to remain partially organized, even as it moves into relative weak instability (present dew points in the mid 50s to around 60). Some daytime heating and moistening over the peninsula should allow for the line to either hold together and affect the area during the afternoon, or for new storms to initiate.

There is a chance for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. There is also a small chance that storms could spawn a tornado due to the strong, veering low level winds. The main things needed for this to occur would be sufficient surface heating (mid-upper 70s), and increased dew points (mid 60s). Some cloud cover spreading across the area (associated with a band of diminishing showers) will limit heating and the overall coverage of strong-severe storms.