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29 KM ETA MODEL EVALUATION (DR. MANOBIANCO)

The cool season data collection and subjective evaluation period from 1 October 1996 to 31
January 1997 has ended. Mr. Nutter and Dr. Manobianco are completing the analysis and figures
for the warm and cool season objective and subjective components of the 29 km (meso-eta) model
evaluation.

At the request of Dr. Merceret, Dr. Manobianco and Mr. Nutter conducted informal briefings for
SMG, 45 WS, and NWS MLB to discuss the results from the meso-eta evaluation prior to outlining
and writing the final report. The goals of the briefings were to (1) provide status of the year-long
AMU evaluation of the 29 km eta model, (2) solicit feedback from each group, and (3) determine
what aspects of the evaluation results are most operationally useful based on prioritization by SMG,
45 WS, and NWS MLB. The briefings were open to all interested parties, especially those people
that helped design the model evaluation strategy. Prior to the briefing, Dr. Manobianco distributed
detailed packages of results which were used as a guide for the discussions. All briefings were
conducted face-to-face, including the one with Mr. Oram (USA) and Mr. Garner (SMG) who were
attending the 81st Range Commander's Council meeting during the first week of March.

Dr. Manobianco and Mr. Nutter greatly appreciate the time and effort put in by SMG, 45 WS, and
NWS MLB in providing comments and feedback on the results of the model evaluation. The
briefings were very informative and every attempt will be made to incorporate as many of the
suggestions and requests which are consistent with the original model evaluation protocol. Although
the briefings were extremely valuable, preparing and conducting them has delayed the project
completion. As a result, the final report should be completed 31 May 1997 instead of 1 April 1997.

Although the cool season data collection period ended 31 January 1997, the AMU continued to
retrieve and decode meso-eta model gridded and point forecasts from either NOAA's Information
Center FTP server or the National Weather Service (NWS) Gateway server. At the present time,
45 WS, SMG, Range Safety, and other groups who do not routinely retrieve and decode these data
are very interested in examining output from the meso-eta model. Based on this interest and a
specific request from Capt. Heckman (45 WS), Dr. Manobianco modified the AMU's automated
jobs that decode and process the data. The modified scripts now create text bulletins and images of
time-height cross section images of meso-eta point forecasts at TTS and EDW from the 0300 UTC
and 1500 UTC model runs. These files are then emailed to selected PC's in the RWO and to Mr.
Madura at KSC. In addition, the files are transferred directly to a data server at JSC for viewing by
SMG. The files are not being sent to NWS MLB because they currently retrieve the meso-eta
model point forecasts directly from the NWS Gateway server.

It is important to note that this method of providing 29 km eta model point forecasts to SMG and
RWO is complex and involves a number of computers and pathways that are subject to failure. As a
result, the text and image files containing meso-eta model point forecasts may be available less often
than NGM and MRF point data obtained from MIDDS. These missing data may impact the utility of
this method in providing data for real-time operational support.