Temperature Discussion:
Based on the
expectation of a moderate La Nina, the
average temperature over Florida is forecast to be above normal during the
upcoming 2007-08 Florida dry season (1 November - 30 April).
This update represents no change
from the previous long range outlook for warmer than normal conditions
typical of a La Nina and generally agrees with the official CPC forecast
(linked above). The relationship to La Nina and overall average
temperature is fairly reliable, but the relationship of La Nina to
temperature extremes such as major freezes and significant warm
spells in winter is not as strong (latest
presentation). The
Arctic Oscillation and North
Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) play large roles in controlling
temperature in Florida during the dry season, and at this time there are no
reliable long-range forecasts of the AO/NAO ( see
our recent research for background).
This discussion will be updated by December
15th,
2007. |
National Weather Service Forecast Office
