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EL NIÑO-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Florida Storminess And Severe Storms Educational Material

SELECT:

250 mb U Winds Graph

Graph of Daily MSLP and Storminess

Storminess Discussion:  

Based on the expectation of a moderate to possibly strong La Nina during 2007-08 Florida dry season (November 1- April 30) the forecast is for well below normal storminess. Statistical guidance based on expected average Nino 3.0/3.4 values of around -1.6 are for only  2 significant extratropical storms over the 6-month season compared to a normal of 6.  Confidence is higher now that at least a moderate La Nina will occur during the upcoming dry season with a chance of a strong La Nina being sustained during late Fall and early Winter.  Based on the expected La Nina values, logistic regression results indicate a 50-60% chance that storms will be well below normal and only a 1 to 2% chance of storms being above normal  during the upcoming dry season. These results also agree with the conditional probabilities on the Florida Forecast graphic showing a 57% chance of well below normal.

For comparison the record La Nina of 1988-89 had only one storm in 6 months and the La Nina's of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 which are probably most comparable to the current La Nina in strength had 3 and 5 storms respectively. Storminess is almost certain to be much less than the El Nino 2006-07 season which saw 12 storms and frequent and occasionally deadly severe weather.   However, that does not mean that a strong winter storm with tornadoes will not occur.

Remember to keep up to date on daily hazardous weather outlooks out to 7 days by reviewing the Hazardous Weather Outlook page for your area of Florida. The NWS Melbourne office produces a daily Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for east central Florida in addition to the 7-day text product. For longer range outlooks the Climate Prediction Center provides a U.S. Hazards Assessment out to 2 weeks.

For a more in depth discussion on ENSO and its effects on Florida Storminess and Severe Storms check out our educational material on "EL NIÑO-Southern Oscillation and Florida Storminess" and on "EL NIÑO-Southern Oscillation and Florida Dry Season Tornadoes."

Major Dry Season Storms of 2007-2008
Weather Map Storm Reports Disaster Surveys
     
     


Discussion last updated on 10/29/2007 by Bart Hagemeyer
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Date modified: August 2, 2008

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