WTUS82 KMLB 062146 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 070400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 545 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THE DEVELOPMENT PHASE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION WAS NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE FELT INITIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WITH THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY SO THERE IS TIME TO MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HOWEVER...REVIEW PERSONAL OR BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS...SHOULD THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST. THE BEST THING THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PREPARE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL STORM AND REMAIN DILIGENT IN KEEPING INFORMED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND WORK NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS AND WILL BUILD TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES...MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW MOVING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO START ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR 2 DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ RL