ACTIVITY SLOW TO FIRE TODAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE NOTED ON
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...THEREFORE EXPECT COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
OVERNIGHT POPS NOT LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS THE FLOW COMPONENT
REMAINS ALONG SHORE TO SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE EAST COASTAL ZONES FROM
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED POPS LIKELY INLAND...AS MOST ACTIVITY ADVECTS NE DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN WARM
HOWEVER...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS DEPICTED
BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS...SO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY RULE...AS
USUAL FOR MID SUMMER.

SPRATT 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT TUE APR 22 1997

MODEL OUTPUT SLOW TO ARRIVE HENCE A COMPOSITE OF THINKING.   IN THE
NEAR TERM...INTERESTING SITUATION OVER BREVARD COUNTY LAST HOUR HAS
ADDED WEIGHT TO A CERTAIN WAY OF THINKING...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPED WITH TOTAL LIGHTNING INFORMATION EXCESSIVE RELATED TO
STORM IMPLYING A VIGOR TO THE UPDRAFT IN THE PRESENCE OF COLD TEMPS
(ABOUT -13C 500 MB) ALOFT AND A RETURN OF LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS.  VWP WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH
POTENTIAL TO BE DOWNWARD ADVECTED IN STORM COLLAPSE.  THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND UNTIL GULF TROF AXIS CLEARS WHICH IS STILL WEST
OF CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD (AND LATER THIS MORNING) AS IT EJECTS MINOR
WAVES EAST.  AFTERWARDS...REMAINDER OF DAY REASONABLE WITH MAIN
LOOK FORWARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT OVER
ALABAMA THAT DEEPENS TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

SHARP