WTUS82 KMLB 291539 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 292230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER WATER AND NOW AIMING AT FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE... INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. NEAR THE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES SHOULD IMPLEMENT THEIR ACTION PLANS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM EVENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS. PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED...SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER PLACE. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. PERFORM A BATTERY CHECK ON FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...ESPECIALLY YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. MARINAS SHOULD ENSURE THAT ALL ARRANGEMENTS ARE MADE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR SMALL BOATERS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST SITUATION TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY OCCUR. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ERNEST COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT AND ERNESTO MOVES INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE RISK FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 MPH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS SPREAD ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 2 TO 3 FEET IN A BRISK ONSHORE FLOW. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET RISE WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN A MODERATE THREAT OF LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 FEET IN SHELTERED AREAS EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CENTER PASSES WEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A LOW TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. PRESENTLY...THE THREAT FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES APPEARS GREATEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. A FEW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 16 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOME BOATS AND DOCKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ SPRATT