WTUS82 KMLB 291014 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 291600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 615 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER WATER AND NOW AIMING AT FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LOCATIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...WITH THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS SHOULD MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF THE DAYTIME TO PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ALSO...NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WITH AT LEAST HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES SHOULD NOW IMPLEMENT THEIR ACTION PLAN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM EVENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS. PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED...SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER PLACE. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. PERFORM A BATTERY CHECK ON FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...ESPECIALLY YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. MARINAS SHOULD ENSURE THAT ALL ARRANGEMENTS ARE MADE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR SMALL BOATERS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST SITUATION TODAY AS THEIR IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 45 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. AFTER ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE RISK FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTH. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS NEAR 75 MPH MAY OCCUR. IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO EXCEED 75 MPH IS SMALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SPREADING STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE INTO MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO EASTERN OSCEOLA... BREVARD...EASTERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND WITHIN RAINBANDS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES UP THE FLORIDA COAST...SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 FEET IN A BRISK ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MAINLY DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS ARE A PARTICULAR CONCERN. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCLUDES INCLUDES ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A LOW TO MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. SO...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE INITIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE PRECEDING RAINBANDS. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD TO AT LEAST NEW SMYRNA BEACH INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HURRICANE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 16 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING BOATS AND DOCKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS