WTUS82 KMLB 281722 HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 282200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 115 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD...THIS AFFECTS VOLUSIA... BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES. ALSO...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. BASED ON EXPERIENCES OF THE PAST TWO HURRICANE SEASONS...EVERY HOME OR BUSINESS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND BE PREPARED TO BE SELF SUFFICIENT FOR 72 HOURS AFTER A STORM PASSES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...WINDS... ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME FURTHER WEAKENING TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA OUT OVER THE WATER ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AT 55 TO 75 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF SIMILAR INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST...BUT INLAND COUNTIES ARE STILL AT RISK GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND WITH AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE WIND FORECAST RESULTS IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF ERNESTO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCREASING IN MARTIN COUNTY FIRST...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL. AS A RESULT...SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 TO 5 FEET BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO THAT AREA. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE THREAT IS LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS BECOMING A CONCERN. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS POINT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO ACCORDING TO THE POTENTIAL TRAJECTORY OF ITS RAINBANDS AND PRECIPITATION CORE. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT CLOSER TO THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY SPEAKING...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY THE FIRST HAZARD TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA. ...MARINE... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NORTH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF COCOA. THEN... HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DWS