|ABOUT THE DRY SEASON FORECAST|
This forecast product is a result of research from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, Florida on the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on Central Florida’s dry season (November – April). This research, conducted since early 1997, was produced in recognition of the fact that climate fluctuations on regional and global scales have been shown to have a profound impact on Florida's weather from season to season. The importance of seasonal forecasting continues to increase as extreme weather events affect more of Florida’s growing population. These forecasts are meant to supplement, not replace, the official NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) seasonal and winter outlooks by providing more detail and adaptive meteorological interpretation of the impact of predicted climatic events on Central Florida.
|FORECAST BASIS AND INTERPRETATION|
The seasonal forecast is produced by a team of National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologists that employ the use of linear and logistic regression equations as well as analog-based techniques. These methods are based on the official observed and forecast Nino 3.4 and 3.0 values from the CPC and historical weather data for the Central Florida region. The accuracy of these indices will have a bearing on the accuracy of the seasonal forecast.
The Florida dry season forecast is issued for the period between November 1, 2015 and April 30, 2016 and is intended to serve as an early warning of significant impacts from climatic variability for planners and decision makers. Seasonal temperature and precipitation for Central Florida (climate divisions 3 and 4 as shown in figure 1), as well as the number of extratropical storms expected to impact the state are forecast into two separate periods: November-December-January (NDJ) and February-March-April (FMA).
The ENSO state and forecasts for storminess, rainfall, and temperature are divided into five categories, or quintiles: well below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and well above normal. Discussions for each individual forecast parameter are included to help address uncertainty and should be used to supplement the forecast charts.