Florida Dry Season Forecast

 Check back soon for the next 2015-2016 Dry Season Forecast

to be released in early September 

 Previous Central Florida 2014-2015 Dry Season Forecast  Issued: April 2015

Forecast Questions & Comments: william.ulrich@noaa.gov


This forecast product is a result of research from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, Florida on the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on Central Florida’s dry season. This research, conducted since early 1997, was produced in recognition of the fact that climatic fluctuations on regional and global scales have been shown to have a profound impact on Florida's weather from season to season. The importance of seasonal forecasting continues to increase as extreme weather events affect more of Florida’s growing population. These forecasts are meant to supplement, not replace, the official NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) seasonal and winter outlooks by providing more detail and adaptive meteorological interpretation of the impact of predicted climatic events on the Central Florida region.

The seasonal forecast is based upon multiple linear and logistic regression equations as well as analog-based techniques. These methods are based on the official observed and forecast Nino 3.4 and 3.0 values from the CPC and historical weather data for the Central Florida region. The accuracy of these indices will have a bearing on the accuracy of the seasonal forecast.




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