Issued: April 2015
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|ABOUT THE DRY SEASON FORECAST|
This experimental forecast product is a result of research from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, Florida on the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on Central Florida’s dry season. This research, conducted since early 1997, was produced in recognition of the fact that climatic fluctuations on regional and global scales have been shown to have a profound impact on Florida's weather from season to season. The importance of seasonal forecasting continues to increase as extreme weather events affect more of Florida’s growing population. These forecasts are meant to supplement, not replace, the official NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) seasonal and winter outlooks by providing more detail and adaptive meteorological interpretation of the impact of predicted climatic events on the Central Florida region.
The seasonal forecast is based upon multiple linear and logistic regression equations as well as analog-based techniques. These methods are based on the official observed and forecast Nino 3.4 and 3.0 values from the CPC and historical weather data for the Central Florida region. The accuracy of these indices will have a bearing on the accuracy of the seasonal forecast.