NWS Melbourne Marine Web Letter
October 2010

Start of Dry/Cooler Season
There have been few developments in the NWS Melbourne Marine Forecast Program recently. 
The Dry Season started earlier than normal this year as a frontal boundary pushed through on September 30. Hazardous boating conditions usually occur more frequently during the Dry Season. However, the outlook for this Dry Season is for it to be even drier than normal due to the effects of La Nina. This should mean that cold fronts will be less frequent and/or weaker as they pass through the area. So expect more good days for boating compared to last year’s Cool Season. 
Always check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and Impact Weather Update though, to see if boating conditions are going to deteriorate.
Nearshore Wave Model
WFO Melbourne meteorologists started incorporating wave data from the SWAN model into their forecasts during the summer. We have not had much experience yet with the model’s performance following cold frontal passages. As the Cool Season progresses, we hope to see improvements in the forecasted wave heights and periods, especially near the coast and in the Gulf Stream.
Of course, if the wind forecast is inaccurate, then the wave data will also be wrong. Boaters need to remember that the ocean has a vast expanse and the amount of wind data is small, so there will often be areas where the forecast is inaccurate. 
Talk to a Forecaster—anytime
If you have marine weather questions, such as for a trip or tournament, a marine forecaster can be reached 24x7 at 321-255-0212—after hours Ext. 242.
The dry/cool season is a good time for me to get out and give talks about marine forecasting.  If you are interested, the best way to contact me is via email.

Randy Lascody

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