FXUS62 KJAX 101833
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...A SHORT 
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF...AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING THE FRONT...WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH (LIKELY) WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. ON WED AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR AND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED
POPS (ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER) MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS 
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FL AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 GA. 
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH COLD FRONT WASHING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE 
AREA...WILL HANG ON TO PREVIOUS LOW POPS ACROSS THE S AND SE BUT 
KEEP NEAR NIL ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
TO MID 80S AND LOWER 60S THURS AM AND 55 TO 60 FRI AM.              

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUES)...DGEX/GFS INDICATING A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL 
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT STORM 
SYSTEM RACES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. A RETURN TO 
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES 
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING A CANADIAN AIRMASS TO COME DOWN. 
WILL SEE BELOW CLIMO TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY BUT WILL BE 
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO SPREAD NWD FROM GNV AREA TO JAX/CRG
INTO THE EVNG ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN. KEEPING VSBYS ABOVE 4SM. TAFS 
SHOW NE TO E WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST THEN W OR SW AS WEAK SURFACE 
LOW PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA. 

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC TNGT FOR OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR 
15-20 KT WINDS. SEAS HAVE ONLY INCREASED FROM 1-2 FT TO 3-4 FT SO 
FAR TODAY...LESS THAN WHAT GFS-BASED GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WITH 
WEAKER SURFACE LOW THAN GFS SUGGESTS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE LESS 
THAN THE 8-10 FT SUGGESTED BY 00Z THIS EVNG. FOR NOW...GOING WITH 
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT THIS EVNG. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS UNTIL WEEKEND 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  77  60  80 /  40  40  30  10 
SSI  58  75  64  81 /  50  40  30  10 
JAX  55  80  63  83 /  50  40  30  10 
SGJ  59  79  64  80 /  60  40  30  20 
GNV  56  82  62  84 /  50  40  30  20 
OCF  58  84  63  84 /  50  40  30  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/PW/RK