Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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952
FGUS74 KMAF 181715
ESFMAF
190515-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 7.5 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   3.2  4.5  5.5  6.5  7.5  8.7  9.5  9.8 11.9
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   4.0  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.7  5.4  5.9  6.4  6.6
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   3.3  3.8  4.1  4.9  5.4  5.5  7.7  9.0 10.0
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   3.1  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.2  3.4  4.7  6.1  7.7
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.5
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.9  0.9  0.9  1.7
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   2.9  2.9  3.0  3.0  3.1  3.1  3.2  3.3  4.3
 Malaga 10S        20.0   3.5  3.5  3.6  3.6  3.7  3.7  3.8  4.1  5.5
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  5.0
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.3
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.2  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.5
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   2.5  2.7  2.8  2.8  2.9  3.0  3.0  3.2  3.6
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.1  2.4  2.4  2.5  2.5  2.6  2.9  4.7  9.2

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2205.2 2205.2 2205.8 2207.9 2208.4 2209.5 2210.1 2212.4 2214.9

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2048.0 2048.0 2048.0 2048.4 2049.0 2049.6 2050.3 2051.1 2051.8

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2036.3 2036.3 2036.3 2036.3 2036.5 2036.9 2037.5 2038.1 2040.1

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$
467
FGUS74 KMAF 211842
ESFMAF
220642-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
142 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 7.1 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 3/19/2014 - 6/18/2014 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   3.7  4.6  5.5  6.2  7.1  8.3  9.6 10.1 12.2
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   4.0  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.7  5.0  5.9  6.4  6.9
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   3.4  3.8  4.2  5.0  5.4  5.8  6.6  8.4 10.0
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   3.4  3.5  3.6  3.6  3.6  3.8  4.0  5.2  7.4
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.3  2.5
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.9  1.7
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   2.9  2.9  2.9  2.9  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.1  4.3
 Malaga 10S        20.0   3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.6  3.6  3.9  5.2
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.9
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.3
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.4  1.4
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   2.2  2.3  2.4  2.6  2.7  2.7  2.8  2.9  3.0
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.0  2.3  2.4  2.5  2.5  2.6  2.9  4.9  9.6

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2205.4 2205.4 2205.8 2206.7 2208.1 2208.6 2209.2 2210.5 2213.8

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2048.5 2048.5 2048.5 2048.8 2049.0 2049.3 2050.3 2051.0 2051.9

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2036.7 2036.7 2036.7 2036.7 2036.8 2037.3 2037.5 2038.6 2039.3

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$
231
FGUS74 KMAF 061837
ESFMAF

061800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CST THU MAR 6 2013

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
IS BELOW AVERAGE BASED UPON CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK CONSIDERS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...SNOWPACK...SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY...COMBINED WITH LONGER-TERM 90-DAY FORECASTS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION IS THE OCCURRENCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME...EVEN FOR AREAS WHERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST OR HAVE DEVELOPED.

THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR SPECIFIC BASIN AREAS IN THE REGION FOLLOW.

...PECOS RIVER BASIN...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM SPRINGTIME SNOWMELT IN THE UPPER
PECOS RIVER BASIN IS VERY LOW.

AS A RESULT...SEASONAL VOLUMETRIC STREAMFLOW FORECASTS RANGE FROM
2 TO 46 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

CURRENT BASIN STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE MAINSTEM AND TRIBUTARIES ARE
GENERALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
RESERVOIR STORAGE IS MODERATE...WITH 64 PERCENT OF THE LONG TERM
AVERAGE IN BASIN RESERVOIRS.

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS IN THE PECOS RIVER
BASIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS GENERALLY RANGED WITHIN
5 TO 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS AND LOWER
VALLEY AREAS.  FOR EVEN LONGER PERIODS OVER THE LAST FEW
YEARS...OBSERVED PRECIPITATION HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY SINCE SPRING 2013.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST
EDDY FARED THE WORST...AND WAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT.  DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO RANGED FROM SEVERE IN
THE NORTH TO TO NO DROUGHT SOUTH.  IN WEST TEXAS...THE PECOS RIVER
BASIN WAS GENERALLY OUT OF DROUGHT...OR ABNORMALLY DRY.  THE U.S.
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS SUGGESTS DROUGHT WILL
DEVELOP...PERSIST...OR INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE PECOS RIVER BASIN.

90 DAY CLIMATE OUTLOOKS FORECAST NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EVEN IF THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...HOWEVER...BELOW
AVERAGE WATER SUPPLY AND VERY LOW CHANCES OF SPRING TIME FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED.

....................................................................

...WEST TEXAS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER COLORADO AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SPRING FLOODING OVER THESE BASIN AREAS
IN TEXAS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

IN THE PAST 60 DAYS...MOST OF THESE BASINS HAVE RECEIVED WELL BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL RANGING FROM 5 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

CURRENT BASIN STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW OR WELL BELOW BASEFLOW.
RESERVOIR STORAGE IN THE REGION IS ALSO VERY LOW RANGING FROM NEARLY
EMPTY TO 32 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES EXTREME DROUGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE COLORADO RIVER.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE TO
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLORADO AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS OF WEST TEXAS.  THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS SUGGESTS DROUGHT WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THESE BASINS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOKS CALL FOR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

REFERENCES/LINKS:

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT
HTTP://WWW.DWR.STATE.CO.US/SURFACEWATER/DEFAULT.ASPX

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
HTTP://WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/RESERVOIR/RESV_RPT.HTML
HTTP://WIID.TWDB.TEXAS.GOV/IMS/RESINFO/BUSHBUTTON/LAKESTATUS.ASP
HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.
SHTML

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.GIF

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.TWDB.STATE.TX.US/APPS/DROUGHTINFO/ALLMAPVIEW.ASPX

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_PRCP.GIF

WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WATEROUTLOOK.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/

$$

44

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