Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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871
FGUS74 KMAF 052337
ESFMAF

122359-
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5, 2015

The spring flood potential for the Midland/Odessa National Weather
Service drainage area covering portions of Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas is below average based upon current antecedent
conditions.  For the southern Rocky Mountains, which includes the
San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, snowmelt runoff draining into the
upper Rio Grande and Pecos river basins to produce spring flooding
is unlikely and not expected based on the current snowpack
conditions.

This outlook considers antecedent rainfall, snowpack, soil moisture,
streamflow, and water supply conditions compared to climatology
combined with longer-term 90-day forecasts for temperatures and
precipitation across the forecast area.  The most significant factors
for spring flooding are amount of water in the snowpack and the
timing of the melt.

The primary factor in development of significant river flooding over
most of the region is the occurrence of excessive rainfall in
relatively short periods of time, even for areas where drought
conditions persist or have developed.  In addition, the mountainous
area in the northwest portion of the  forecast area can be affected
by rapid snowmelt, usually occurring in the spring months.  These
mountainous areas of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico can
receive significant winter snowpack accumulation.  However, normal
weather regimes producing rapid snowmelt and/or heavy rain on snow
events, statistically these have a low probability of occurrence in
this area.  Above average snowpack is currently not observed or
forecast within the southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
mountains.

The general outlook for specific basin areas in the region follow:


...Upper Rio Grande and Pecos basin, Colorado and New Mexico

The current general basin wide snow conditions within the upper Rio
Grande in Colorado and New Mexico are still generally tracking below
average, but improving with a regular pattern of storm systems over
the past few week. In contrast, the Pecos River basin received some
unusually heavy rainfall amounts last fall along with additional
snow/rain events boosting the precipitation totals over the basin to
values ranging from 150 to 400-plus percent above average over the
past 60 days.

Recent storms have also dropped much needed snow over the mountainous
regions throughout south central Colorado and northern New Mexico,
increasing seasonal forecast streamflows, but still generally below
normal; the exception being near normal streamflow forecasts along
the middle/upper Sangres.  However, the potential for spring flooding
remains low.

Looking at snowpack, the range varies widely, however, the upper Rio
Grande basin in Colorado is generally 65 to 90 percent of normal for
snow water equivalent basin-wide with localized above and below
outliers.  Across New Mexico in the Rio Grande and Pecos basins, snow
water equivalents range from 60 to near 90 percent of normal.  Along
the northern and middle Sangres in Colorado and New Mexico, the
snowpack improves with a general range from 90 to 110-plus percent.

Historically, mountainous snowpack, particularly in the higher
elevations, increases into April with additional storms.  The timing
on storms in the region is tracking near normal but the magnitude
continues to be genrally below normal amounts.  As a result, peak
snowpacks are expected to continue below normal levels with melt
likely occurring earlier than normal this season. However, any
enhanced precipitation and cooler temperatures through March would
provide protection despite the typical dust-on-snow and wind events
that greatly reduce the snowpack. Based on current snowpack
conditions, below average streamflow is expected this spring and
throughout the seasonal runoff period.  The potential for significant
flooding from springtime snowmelt in the upper Rio Grande and Pecos
River basins remains significantly reduced for the mainstem and
associated tributaries.  Current basin streamflows along the mainstem
and tributaries are below normal in Colorado and New Mexico, as well
as, reservoir storage.

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate drought
conditions for the upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado and New Mexico
extending to severe drought conditions across the upper Pecos basin.
The 90 day U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates persistence or
slight improvement of drought conditions in the entire Rio Grande
basin in Colorado and New Mexico.

Extended 90-day climate outlooks indicate equal chances of above,
below, or near normal temperatures and a 40 percent chance of above
average precipitation. These conditions may result in mitigating
early snowmelt.  Overall, the potential for spring time flooding as
a result of snowmelt runoff is very low.

...The upper Colorado basin of West Texas

The potential for significant spring flooding over this basin area
in Texas is below average at this time.

In the past 60 days, this basin has received near average rainfall
ranging from 75 to 125 percent of normal.  Current basin streamflows
are generally below seasonal baseflow.  Reservoir storage in the
region is also very low ranging from nearly empty to 39 percent of
conservation.  The  U.S. Drought Monitor indicates improvement in
drought conditions across most of western Texas.

The U.S. Seasonal drought outlook for the next 90 days indicates
drought persistence likely across the basin.  Extended 90-day
climate outlooks indicate a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average
precipitation and 33 to 40 percent chance of below average
temperature.  The potential for spring flooding remains well below
average at this time.

REFERENCES/LINKS:

Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Snowpack Conditions:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/SelectUpdateReport.html
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/
west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/WestwideSWEPercent
.pdf

Streamflow Conditions:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt
http://www.dwr.state.co.us/Surfacewater/default.aspx

Reservoir Summaries:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/basin.html
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Soil Moisture Conditions:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/
Soilmst.shtml

Us Drought Monitor And Outlook:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

Tx Drought Information:
http://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/

Climate Graphics:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/
off01_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/
off01_prcp.gif
458
FGUS74 KMAF 191833
ESFMAF
200633-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 5.8 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 2/19/2015 - 5/20/2015 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   3.7  4.1  4.5  5.1  5.8  6.5  7.7 10.8 11.7
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   3.9  3.9  4.0  4.0  4.1  4.2  5.3  6.4  6.8
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   3.3  3.6  3.8  4.2  4.9  5.4  6.6  7.7  9.6
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   8.6  8.8  8.8  8.8  8.8  8.8  8.9  8.9  8.9
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5
 Malaga 10S        20.0   7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  5.0
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.1
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.0  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.5
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   3.2  3.4  3.6  3.6  3.7  3.8  3.9  3.9  4.1
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.6  2.7  2.8  2.8  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.1  4.1

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2239.0 2239.0 2239.0 2239.0 2239.0 2239.0 2239.1 2239.8 2240.6

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2046.1 2046.1 2046.1 2046.1 2046.1 2046.4 2047.7 2048.3 2050.5

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2035.1 2035.1 2035.1 2035.1 2035.1 2035.2 2036.2 2037.0 2037.7

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$
666
FGUS74 KMAF 151828
ESFMAF
160628-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 4.7 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 01/14/2015 - 04/14/2015 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   3.6  3.7  3.9  4.3  4.7  5.3  6.3  8.4 11.1
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   3.8  3.8  3.9  3.9  4.0  4.1  4.1  4.3  6.5
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   2.8  3.1  3.3  3.4  3.5  3.8  4.2  5.5  8.9
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   4.7  6.5  7.2  8.3  8.3  8.3  8.3  8.3  8.3
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.5
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5  7.5
 Malaga 10S        20.0   7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6  7.6
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0  6.0
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.4
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   3.3  3.3  3.4  3.5  3.6  3.7  3.7  3.8  4.0
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.4  2.5  2.6  2.6  2.7  2.7  2.7  2.9  5.5

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2239.2 2239.2 2239.2 2239.2 2239.2 2239.3 2239.6 2240.2 2240.8

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2046.2 2046.2 2046.2 2046.2 2046.2 2046.3 2046.5 2047.9 2050.4

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2035.1 2035.1 2035.2 2035.2 2035.3 2035.3 2036.0 2036.5 2037.6

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

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