Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
878
FGUS74 KMAF 161914
ESFMAF
170714-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 9.0 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 03/15/2017 - 06/13/2017 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   5.2  7.3  7.6  8.6  9.0 10.2 11.3 11.6 14.5
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   4.0  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.6  5.3  6.0  6.6  7.4
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   3.9  4.2  5.2  5.5  6.5  6.7  7.7  9.3 10.5
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   6.7  8.4  8.5  8.5  8.5  8.5  8.5  8.5  8.7
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   2.4  2.9  3.0  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.2  3.3  3.6
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   0.8  1.2  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.6  2.4
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   3.0  3.5  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  4.0  6.0
 Malaga 10S        20.0   3.6  4.0  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.8  6.3
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  6.4
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  6.4
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.4  1.4  1.5  1.7
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   3.5  3.6  3.8  3.8  3.9  3.9  3.9  4.0  4.2
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.7  2.9  2.9  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.1  3.8  7.2

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2246.0 2246.0 2246.0 2246.0 2246.0 2246.0 2246.0 2246.4 2247.4

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2020.7 2022.8 2027.8 2030.5 2032.1 2033.9 2036.9 2040.0 2044.7

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2060.3 2060.3 2060.3 2060.4 2060.4 2060.4 2060.6 2060.8 2061.2

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

44
154
FGUS74 KMAF 021607
ESFMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-091900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
100 PM CST THU MAR 2 2017

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

...FLOOD RISK IS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...

The spring flood potential for the WFO Midland/Odessa, Texas
drainage area covering portions of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico that flows into the Gulf of Mexico, is near to below average
based upon current antecedent conditions.  For the southern Rocky
Mountains, which includes the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, that
drain into the upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basins, spring
flooding driven by snowmelt runoff is not expected based on the
current snowpack conditions.

This outlook considers antecedent rainfall, snowpack, soil moisture,
current streamflow, and water supply conditions compared to
climatology combined with longer-term 90-day climate outlook
forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the forecast
area.

The primary factor in development of significant river flooding over
most of the region is the occurrence of excessive rainfall in
relatively short periods of time, even for areas where drought
conditions persist or have developed.  In addition, the mountainous
areas in the northwest portions of the forecast area can be affected
by snowmelt occurring from as early as the mid-March through April
time frame.  These mountainous areas of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico can accumulate a significant winter snowpack.
The most significant factors for spring flooding in mountainous
terrain are the amount of water in the snowpack and the timing of
the melt, which could be combined with periods of heavy rainfall
runoff. However, normal weather regimes producing rapid snowmelt
and/or heavy rain-on-snow events, statistically have a low
probability of occurrence in this area even during El Nino-driven
weather patterns.

While above average snowpack is currently observed and forecast
within the southern Colorado and northern New Mexico mountains, the
watersheds on the leeward side of these mountains which drain into
the upper Rio grande system currently have average to below average
snow water equivalent totals.

The general outlook for specific basin areas in the region follow:

...Upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basin, Colorado and New Mexico...

The information below reflects conditions through the end of
February.  Conditions across the area have shown an improvement
compared to the same period last year.  However, the 90-day climate
outlook indicate a trend toward drier, warmer conditions which may
accelerate meltout this season with earlier than normal peak flows.

Regionally, snowpack snow water equivalent conditions within the
upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basins in Colorado and New Mexico
are tracking above average.  However, a closer look at snow water
equivalent conditions shows that leeward side watersheds are
averaging near or a few percentage points below the seasonal 30-year
averages.

These snowpack conditions were supported with a regular pattern of
storm systems over the past few months.  Focusing in the leeward
watersheds draining into the upper Rio Grande, precipitation
received for the water-year-to-date is below normal, even with the
exception of late month storm tracks dropping significant snow
amounts in January and early February.  For points near Albuquerque
and south to Elephant Butte Reservoir, precipitation has been well
above average as winter storms favored western, central and points
south of Albuquerque.  Much of the precipitation has fallen as rain
rather than snow at lower elevations this year.

Current observed basin streamflows along the mainstem and
tributaries without ice impairment are near or below normal.
Reservoir conditions are below normal in New Mexico.  Elephant Butte
Reservoir is at 15% of storage capacity, down from 18% a year ago.
WFO Midland/Odessa, Texas has three reservoirs in the Pecos River
basin.  Brantley Reservoir, north of Carlsbad, New Mexico, is at 84%
storage capacity.  Avalon Reservoir, between Brantley and Carlsbad,
is at 70% capacity.  Just south of the New Mexico border, Red Bluff
Reservoir is at 88.3% capacity.

Historically, mountainous snowpack, particularly in the higher
elevations, increases into April with additional storms, but recent
trends indicate the timing of peak accumulations and melt-out are
occurring up to 2 to 4 weeks earlier.  However, any enhanced
precipitation and cooler temperatures through March can help provide
protection despite possible dust-on-snow and wind events that can
greatly reduce the snowpack.

Based on current snowpack conditions, near average streamflow is
expected this spring and throughout the seasonal runoff period.  The
potential for significant flooding from springtime snowmelt in the
upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basins remains low for the mainstem
and associated tributaries.  However, localized, minor, diurnal
flooding will be possible.

The Climate Prediction Center extended 90-day climate outlooks
indicate greater chances for above normal temperatures and below
average precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor has no drought conditions currently
designated for the upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basins in
Colorado and New Mexico, which is considerable improvement from the
moderate to severe conditions a year ago.  And the U.S. Seasonal
Drought Outlook indicates no expected development of drought
conditions across these areas in the next 90 days.

...Upper Colorado River basin and Rio Grande of West Texas

The potential for significant spring flooding over these basin areas
in Texas is near average at this time.

In the past 60 days, these basins have received near average
rainfall ranging from 5-15% of normal in the Big Bend/Rio Grande
region to over 100% of normal in the upper Colorado River basin.
Current basin streamflows are near average seasonal baseflow based
on the latest USGS streamflow index.  Reservoir storage in the upper
Colorado River basin is low.  Champion Creek Reservoir was lowest,
at 37.9% storage capacity.  Lake Colorado City was at 47.3%
capacity, Lake J.B. Thomas at 63.1% capacity, and Moss Creek Lake at
78% capacity.  The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates no current drought
conditions due in part to timely widespread rainfalls during the
past 90 days.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next 90 days no drought
conditions are expected to develop in West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  Extended 90-day climate outlooks indicate a 33 to nearly 50
percent chance of below average precipitation.  There is a greater
than 50 percent chance of above average temperatures.  The potential
for spring flooding is expected to be near or slightly below average
over the next 90 days.

REFERENCES/LINKS:

Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

Snowpack Conditions:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/SelectUpdateReport.html
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/west_swepctnormal_update.png
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/WestwideSWEpercent.pdf

Streamflow Conditions:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt
http://www.dwr.state.co.us/SurfaceWater/default.aspx

Reservoir Summaries:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/basin.html
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Soil Moisture Conditions:
http:// www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml

U.S. Drought Monitor and Outlook:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

TX Drought Information:
http://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/

Climate Graphics:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
http:// www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

DeBerry
918
FGUS74 KMAF 172130
ESFMAF
180930-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
330 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas.  AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.  This
service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days.  Example:  The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 7.1 feet during the
next 90 days.

          Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                 Valid [ 02/15/2017 - 05/16/2017 ]

Location          FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------          ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Colorado City     15.0   4.9  5.3  6.0  6.8  7.1  8.1  9.1 11.2 12.8
Deep Creek
 Dunn 1W           14.0   3.8  3.8  3.8  3.9  3.9  4.0  4.6  5.9  6.8
Beals Creek
 Westbrook 11S     22.5   3.2  3.5  3.9  4.1  5.0  5.5  6.6  7.8 10.4
Pecos River
 Artesia 6E        12.5   8.6  8.6  8.6  8.6  8.6  8.6  8.6  8.6  8.9
 Carlsbad 9NW      20.0   2.4  2.8  2.9  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.2  3.4  3.6
 Carlsbad 2E       14.0   0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.8  1.0  1.1  1.2  1.7
 Malaga 3ESE       30.0   3.1  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.1  3.4  5.8
 Malaga 10S        20.0   3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.9  5.4
 Sheffield 3ESE    28.0   3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4  3.4
Rio Penasco
 Dayton 2WNW       20.0   0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.3
Fourmile Draw
 Lakewood 4NNW     12.0   1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1  1.1
Rocky Arroyo
 Lakewood 7S       12.0   4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.9
Dark Canyon
 Carlsbad          15.0   5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.7  5.8
Black River
 Malaga 5W         18.0   1.1  1.1  1.2  1.2  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.5
Delaware River
 Red Bluff 11NW    26.0   3.2  3.5  3.6  3.7  3.8  3.8  3.9  3.9  4.2
Independence Creek
 Sheffield 18SSE   11.0   2.7  2.7  2.8  2.8  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.6  4.1

Lake JB Thomas
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2246.7 2246.7 2246.7 2246.7 2246.7 2246.8 2247.2 2247.6 2248.2

Lake Colorado City
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2023.5 2024.4 2025.4 2026.8 2028.9 2032.4 2035.2 2038.5 2044.7

Champion Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2060.7 2060.7 2060.7 2060.7 2060.8 2060.9 2061.3 2061.5 2062.0

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data.  These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.  By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:

http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

44

  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
  •  
  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.