Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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558
AXUS74 KMAF 211806
DGTMAF

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 /200 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2016/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 13
SEPTEMBER...SHOWED ONLY MINOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...A
SMALL AREA OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WAS ABNORMALLY DRY.  THE REST
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS NOT IN DROUGHT.  IN WEST
TEXAS...SOUTHERN GLASSCOCK AND NORTHEAST SCURRY COUNTIES WERE
ABNORMALLY DRY.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS NOT IN DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL...BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY
WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 20 SEPTEMBER...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
CRANE...CULBERSON...GLASSCOCK...JEFF
DAVIS...MARTIN...REAGAN...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD... AND WINKLER
COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
19 SEPTEMBER...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 200 OVER THE JEFF DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 500 IN THE
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE
DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VARY.  THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR
KEY CRITICAL WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR
EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 13 SEPTEMBER
BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR
WEST...TEMPERATURES STAYED IN THE HIGH 80S AND LOW 90S. CONDITIONS
WERE OVERCAST...AND RAIN SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF THE DISTRICT. HEAVY
RAINS CAUSED STANDING WATER IN DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. RAINFALL
RANGED FROM ZERO TO 3 INCHES.  RAINS IMPROVED RANGE CONDITIONS...AND
RANGELAND GRASSES WERE GROWING RAPIDLY AND TURNING GREEN.  LATE-
PLANTED SORGHUM CROPS WERE EXPERIENCING SUGARCANE APHID ACTIVITY.
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE CONTINUED.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...NO REPORT WAS ISSUED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 12.32 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 11.00
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 9.48 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
10.73 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 10.33 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 12.28
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 9.20 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 11.25 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 8
SEPTEMBER...THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS IN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED 55-60 PERCENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH FALL
AND WINTER 2016-2017.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 15 SEPTEMBER BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 21 SEPTEMBER:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2246.49  -0.01     46.49         64.0
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2049.08   0.08     35.09         25.4
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2053.25  -0.01     53.20         25.1
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2329.92   0.03     37.92         70.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3254.41   0.06     48.41         93.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.03  -0.34      7.03         74.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2823.91  -0.01     59.91         83.6

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NWS DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

USGS:  HTTPS://WWW2.USGS.GOV/WATER/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY

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