Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
125
AXUS74 KMAF 232034
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 /500 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM), ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER, USDA, AND NWS ON 3 MARCH, SHOWS
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST MONTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  IN WEST TEXAS, EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED INTO SEVERE DROUGHT.  IMPACTS
OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE LIKELY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES,
WATER SHORTAGES, AND WATER RESTRICTIONS.  CENTRAL TERRELL, EASTERN
SCURRY, MOST OF MITCHELL, AND ALL OF GLASSCOCK COUNTIES WERE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT. IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE
SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER
ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT, MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE
DROUGHT.  THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY
OR OUT OF DROUGHT, MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL, BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER, WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN, AND MANDATORY
WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

AS OF 5 MARCH, BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
EXCEPT ANDREWS, BORDEN, BREWSTER, DAWSON, GAINES, LOVING, MARTIN,
PRESIDIO, REAGAN, SCURRY, AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION, IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800, WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
4 MARCH, THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 200 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.  IN
THIS RANGE, LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE
INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.  THE
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL WEATHER
THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25
PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED, FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 MARCH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM, IN THE FAR WEST, PASTURE AND
RANGELAND RATINGS VARIED WIDELY, FROM VERY POOR TO EXCELLENT, WITH
POOR BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  TOPSOIL MOISTURE VARIED WIDELY
TOO, FROM 90 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 100 PERCENT FAIR, WITH ADEQUATE
BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  SUBSOIL MOISTURE VARIED TOO, WITH
ADEQUATE BEING MOST COMMON.  PECAN GROWERS WERE CLEANING UP
ORCHARDS, AND HEDGING AND PRUNING.  COTTON GROWERS WERE PREPARING
LAND FOR PLANTING.  ALFALFA WAS COMING OUT OF DORMANCY AND UNDER
IRRIGATION.  LIMITED IRRIGATION WATER IN SOME AREAS WAS AFFECTING
PLANTING DECISIONS. WEEDS WERE ABUNDANT IN THE PASTURES DUE TO THE
FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS, TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS BROUGHT EXTREMELY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  FREEZING RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
ACCOMPANIED THE SNOW.  WINTER WHEAT GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH THE
MOISTURE, BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME FREEZE DAMAGE. HOWEVER,
PRODUCERS WERE GRATEFUL FOR THE MOISTURE BUT WERE CONCERNED ABOUT
BEING ABLE TO GET PRE-PLANT HERBICIDES APPLIED IN A TIMELY MANNER.
EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS STRESSED LIVESTOCK.  RANGELAND AND
PASTURES WERE IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITION.  THE PREVIOUS WEEKS MOISTURE
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARM DAYS BENEFITED COOL-SEASON GRASSES.  DURING
THE COLD WEATHER, RANCHERS WERE PROVIDING EXTRA SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO
CATTLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY, THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.82 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 1.35
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.96 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 1.08
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.47 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.32 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, OR CPC, AS OF 5 MARCH,
EL NINO HAS ARRIVED, AND A EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  THERE IS
AN APPROXIMATELY 50-60% CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUMMER 2015.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE, THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK, ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE CPC,
INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 5 MARCH:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2238.86   0.00     38.86         44.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.05   0.01     32.05         21.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2034.94   0.01     35.04          5.5
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2326.03   0.25     34.03         56.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.46   0.01     58.46        221.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.58   0.01      7.58         84.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.71   0.03     61.52         91.8

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC):  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY & WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER (NCDC), THE IB&WC, THE USDA, STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER.  INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE, AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432-563-5006

$$

DEBERRY
301
AXUS74 KMAF 111157
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 /500 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 3 MARCH...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST MONTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF
DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST
TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED INTO SEVERE
DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE LIKELY CROP
OR PASTURE LOSSES...WATER SHORTAGES...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS.
CENTRAL TERRELL...EASTERN SCURRY...MOST OF MITCHELL...AND ALL OF
GLASSCOCK COUNTIES WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS
WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF
DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL...BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND
MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 5 MARCH...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...
LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...REAGAN...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
4 MARCH...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 200 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 MARCH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR WEST...PASTURE AND
RANGELAND RATINGS VARIED WIDELY...FROM VERY POOR TO EXCELLENT...WITH
POOR BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  TOPSOIL MOISTURE VARIED WIDELY
TOO...FROM 90 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 100 PERCENT FAIR...WITH ADEQUATE
BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  SUBSOIL MOISTURE VARIED TOO...WITH
ADEQUATE BEING MOST COMMON.  PECAN GROWERS WERE CLEANING UP
ORCHARDS...AND HEDGING AND PRUNING.  COTTON GROWERS WERE PREPARING
LAND FOR PLANTING.  ALFALFA WAS COMING OUT OF DORMANCY AND UNDER
IRRIGATION.  LIMITED IRRIGATION WATER IN SOME AREAS WAS AFFECTING
PLANTING DECISIONS. WEEDS WERE ABUNDANT IN THE PASTURES DUE TO THE
FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS BROUGHT EXTREMELY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  FREEZING RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
ACCOMPANIED THE SNOW.  WINTER WHEAT GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH THE
MOISTURE...BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME FREEZE DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...PRODUCERS WERE GRATEFUL FOR THE MOISTURE BUT WERE
CONCERNED ABOUT BEING ABLE TO GET PRE-PLANT HERBICIDES APPLIED IN A
TIMELY MANNER.  EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS STRESSED LIVESTOCK.
RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITION.  THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS MOISTURE FOLLOWED BY SOME WARM DAYS BENEFITED COOL-SEASON
GRASSES.  DURING THE COLD WEATHER...RANCHERS WERE PROVIDING EXTRA
SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO CATTLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.82 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 1.35
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.96 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 1.08
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.47 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.32 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 5
MARCH...EL NINO HAS ARRIVED...AND A EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THERE IS AN APPROXIMATELY 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER 2015.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 5 MARCH:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2238.86   0.00     38.86         44.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.05   0.01     32.05         21.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2034.94   0.01     35.04          5.5
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2326.03   0.25     34.03         56.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.46   0.01     58.46        221.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.58   0.01      7.58         84.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.71   0.03     61.52         91.8

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY
261
AXUS74 KMAF 060030
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 /500 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 3 MARCH...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST MONTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF
DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST
TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED INTO SEVERE
DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE LIKELY CROP
OR PASTURE LOSSES...WATER SHORTAGES...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS.
CENTRAL TERRELL...EASTERN SCURRY...MOST OF MITCHELL...AND ALL OF
GLASSCOCK COUNTIES WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS
WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF
DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL...BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND
MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 5 MARCH...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...
LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...REAGAN...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
4 MARCH...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 200 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 MARCH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR WEST...IN THE SOUTH
PLAINS...PASTURE AND RANGELAND RATINGS VARIED WIDELY...FROM VERY
POOR TO EXCELLENT...WITH POOR BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  TOPSOIL
MOISTURE VARIED WIDELY TOO...FROM 90 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 100
PERCENT FAIR...WITH ADEQUATE BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  SUBSOIL
MOISTURE VARIED TOO...WITH ADEQUATE BEING MOST COMMON.  PECAN
GROWERS WERE CLEANING UP ORCHARDS...AND HEDGING AND PRUNING.  COTTON
GROWERS WERE PREPARING LAND FOR PLANTING.  ALFALFA WAS COMING OUT OF
DORMANCY AND UNDER IRRIGATION.  LIMITED IRRIGATION WATER IN SOME
AREAS WAS AFFECTING PLANTING DECISIONS. WEEDS WERE ABUNDANT IN THE
PASTURES DUE TO THE FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS BROUGHT EXTREMELY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  FREEZING RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
ACCOMPANIED THE SNOW.  WINTER WHEAT GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH THE
MOISTURE...BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME FREEZE DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...PRODUCERS WERE GRATEFUL FOR THE MOISTURE BUT WERE
CONCERNED ABOUT BEING ABLE TO GET PRE-PLANT HERBICIDES APPLIED IN A
TIMELY MANNER.  EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS STRESSED LIVESTOCK.
RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITION.  THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS MOISTURE FOLLOWED BY SOME WARM DAYS BENEFITED COOL-SEASON
GRASSES.  DURING THE COLD WEATHER...RANCHERS WERE PROVIDING EXTRA
SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO CATTLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.82 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 1.35
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.96 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 1.08
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.47 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.32 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 5
MARCH...EL NINO HAS ARRIVED...AND A EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THERE IS AN APPROXIMATELY 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER 2015.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 5 MARCH:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2238.86   0.00     38.86         44.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.05   0.01     32.05         21.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2034.94   0.01     35.04          5.5
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2326.03   0.25     34.03         56.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.46   0.01     58.46        221.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.58   0.01      7.58         84.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.71   0.03     61.52         91.8

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY
012
AXUS74 KMAF 052327
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 /500 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 3 MARCH...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST MONTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF
DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST
TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED INTO SEVERE
DROUGHT.  CENTRAL TERRELL...EASTERN SCURRY...MOST OF MITCHELL...AND
ALL OF GLASSCOCK COUNTIES WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE REST OF
WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT
OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL...BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND
MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 5 MARCH...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...
LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...REAGAN...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
4 MARCH...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 200 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 MARCH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR WEST...IN THE SOUTH
PLAINS...PASTURE AND RANGELAND RATINGS VARIED WIDELY...FROM VERY
POOR TO EXCELLENT...WITH POOR BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  TOPSOIL
MOISTURE VARIED WIDELY TOO...FROM 90 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 100
PERCENT FAIR...WITH ADEQUATE BEING THE MOST COMMON RATING.  SUBSOIL
MOISTURE VARIED TOO...WITH ADEQUATE BEING MOST COMMON.  PECAN
GROWERS WERE CLEANING UP ORCHARDS...AND HEDGING AND PRUNING.  COTTON
GROWERS WERE PREPARING LAND FOR PLANTING.  ALFALFA WAS COMING OUT OF
DORMANCY AND UNDER IRRIGATION.  LIMITED IRRIGATION WATER IN SOME
AREAS WAS AFFECTING PLANTING DECISIONS. WEEDS WERE ABUNDANT IN THE
PASTURES DUE TO THE FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS BROUGHT EXTREMELY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  FREEZING RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
ACCOMPANIED THE SNOW.  WINTER WHEAT GENERALLY IMPROVED WITH THE
MOISTURE...BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME FREEZE DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...PRODUCERS WERE GRATEFUL FOR THE MOISTURE BUT WERE
CONCERNED ABOUT BEING ABLE TO GET PRE-PLANT HERBICIDES APPLIED IN A
TIMELY MANNER.  EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS STRESSED LIVESTOCK.
RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITION.  THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS MOISTURE FOLLOWED BY SOME WARM DAYS BENEFITED COOL-SEASON
GRASSES.  DURING THE COLD WEATHER...RANCHERS WERE PROVIDING EXTRA
SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO CATTLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.82 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 1.35
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.96 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 1.08
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.47 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.32 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 5
MARCH...EL NINO HAS ARRIVED...AND A EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THERE IS AN APPROXIMATELY 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER 2015.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 5 MARCH:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2238.86   0.00     38.86         44.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.05   0.01     32.05         21.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2034.94   0.01     35.04          5.5
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2326.03   0.25     34.03         56.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.46   0.01     58.46        221.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.58   0.01      7.58         84.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.71   0.03     61.52         91.8

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY
860
AXUS74 KMAF 041644
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT WED FEB 4 2015 /100 PM MDT WED FEB 4 2015/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 27 JANUARY...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO THE BEST THEY HAVE
BEEN SINCE 2010 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE
DROUGHT.  THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY
OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN
WEST TEXAS...ONLY EASTERN SCURRY...EXTREME NORTHEAST MITCHELL...AND
SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTIES REMAINED IN MODERATE DROUGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT
OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
ABOVE-NORMAL...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR ANNUAL
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 3 FEBRUARY...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...
LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...REAGAN...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
3 FEBRUARY...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 300 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 FEBRUARY BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR WEST...MOST COUNTIES
REPORTED SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR FIELDWORK.  TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY ADEQUATE...WHILE SUBSOIL
MOISTURE WAS SHORT.  PASTURES AND RANGELANDS WERE MOSTLY IN FAIR TO
POOR CONDITION.  UPLAND COTTON AND PECANS WERE COMPLETELY HARVESTED.
REEVES COUNTY OATS WERE MOSTLY IN GOOD CONDITION.  WINTER WHEAT WAS
50 TO 100 PERCENT EMERGED AND MOSTLY IN FAIR TO POOR CONDITION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION RANGED FROM 0.5 TO
0.75 INCH.  TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARM.  THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
HELPED WINTER WHEAT COME ALONG.  WITH MINOR EXCEPTIONS...ALL CROPS
WERE HARVESTED...AND PRODUCERS MOVED ON TO PREPARING FIELDS FOR
SPRING PLANTING.  RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD CONDITION FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  CATTLE WERE MOSTLY IN GOOD CONDITION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.43 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 0.63
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 0.96 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.45 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 1.27 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 0.54
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 1.58 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 0.69 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 8
JANUARY...THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF EL NINO THROUGH EARLY
MARCH...WITH NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 15 JANUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 4 FEBRUARY:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2239.14   0.00     39.12         45.1
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.22   0.00     32.21         21.5
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2035.05  -0.02     35.15          5.6
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2328.38  -0.11     36.38         64.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3264.33   0.01     58.33        219.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.44   0.02      7.44         81.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2825.29   0.02     61.11         89.9

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.