Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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117
AXUS74 KMAF 291827
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT MON DEC 29 2014 /100 PM MDT MON DEC 29 2014/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 23
DECEMBER... SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO THE BEST
THEY HAVE BEEN SINCE 2010 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY WAS IN
MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER
ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS
OF MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND
PASTURES.  IN WEST TEXAS...POCKETS OF MODERATE DROUGHT WERE NOTED IN
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY
OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
ABOVE-NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
ARE AN INCH OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.  MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ANNUAL RAINFALL.  THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WERE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF MIDLAND.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND
MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 22 DECEMBER...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...JEFF
DAVIS...LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
28 DECEMBER...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 300 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 4 NOVEMBER BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...PEOPLE ARE
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DECENT RAIN IN THE SUMMER...ESPECIALLY AUGUST
AND SEPTEMBER SAID DR. TED MCCOLLUM...AGRILIFE EXTENSION BEEF CATTLE
SPECIALIST...AMARILLO.

AND THOUGH THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS HAS HAD SOME RELIEF FROM THE
DROUGHT...IT HASN/T HAD THE TURNAROUND THAT MANY OTHER PARTS OF THE
STATE HAVE...MCCOLLUM SAID.

THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT ARE STILL WANTING FOR RAIN...HE SAID.  WE
HAD MOISTURE AND GREW SOME GRASS...BUT YOU DONT HAVE TO DIG VERY
DEEP TO FIND DRY GROUND.

THOUGH THE GOOD SUMMER RAINS BEGAN RECOVERY OF RANGELAND IN MANY
AREAS...WINTER WHEAT FOR GRAZING REMAINS A MIXED BAG...MCCOLLUM
SAID.  WHERE IT WAS PLANTED EARLY AND BENEFITED FROM RAINS IN AUGUST
AND SEPTEMBER...OR IT WAS GROWN UNDER CENTER PIVOT
IRRIGATION...STANDS ARE GOOD.  WHERE IT WAS PLANTED LATE...STANDS
ARE SHORT AND NOT SUITABLE FOR GRAZING.

WHEAT WAS PLANTED LATE BECAUSE THE PRECEDING CROP WAS LATE BEING
HARVESTED OR THE LATE SUMMER RAINS PREVENTED GROWERS FROM GETTING
INTO FIELDS TO PLANT...HE SAID.

SO WE/VE KIND OF HAD TWO ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM WHEN IT COMES TO
WHEAT...MCCOLLUM SAID.

AS FOR RESTOCKING COW/CALF HERDS, THAT/S A DIFFERENT MATTER, HE
SAID. TRUE, THE IMPROVED RANGE CONDITIONS ARE PROMPTING SOME
LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS TO BRING THEIR COWHERD NUMBERS UP...BUT THERE/S
SOME HOLDING BACK.

MOST COW/CALF OPERATIONS WILL BE ON RANGELAND OR PERHAPS ON RETIRED
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM
ACRES...AND A RETURN TO FULL-FLEDGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE
EVERYTHING...ACCORDING TO MCCOLLUM.

THE PRICES OF COWS ALONE ARE HOLDING SOME PEOPLE BACK...HE SAID.

I/D SAY THE RESTOCKING OF THOSE AREAS IS FAIRLY TENTATIVE RIGHT NOW.
THERE ARE FOLKS WAITING TO SEE IF THE SUMMER OF 2014 WAS A GOOD YEAR
IN THE MIDDLE OF A DROUGHT OR IF THE DROUGHT IS ACTUALLY BROKEN.
SOME OF THESE GUYS ARE LITTLE BIT LEERY OF PAYING HIGH DOLLAR FOR A
COW AND FINDING WE ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 7.65 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 14.05
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 4.89 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
13.63 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 12.69 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 15.34
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 9.49 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 14.73 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 4
DECEMBER...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF EL NINO THIS
WINTER...LASTING INTO SPRING.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 18 DECEMBER BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN
THE VICINITY OF MIDLAND...BUT REMAIN UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 6 NOVEMBER:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2239.29   0.00     39.29         45.4
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.19   0.00     32.18         21.5
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2035.07  -0.01     35.18          5.7
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2327.31  -0.03     35.31         60.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3263.97   0.01     57.97        212.0
AVALON           3177.40  3175.55   0.02      6.55         65.0
RED BLUFF        2827.40  2824.64   0.01     60.65         86.9

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY

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