Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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109
FXUS64 KMAF 230108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
708 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains,
and elevations above 6000 feet in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A fairly potent shortwave trough is translating south/southeastward
through New Mexico early this evening.  Although the surface
pressure gradient over the area is not very tight as of 23/00Z,
southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph sustained have already occurred in
the lower elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The surface
pressure gradient does not tighten much over the next several hours,
but think much stronger mid level winds associated with the
mentioned shortwave trough will serve to increase winds throughout
the Guadalupe Mountains through 23/06Z.

These stronger mid level winds will also impinge upon the Davis
Mountains this evening, so expect winds to increase in the higher
elevations there.  Have decided to issue a High Wind Warning for all
of the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Davis Mountains above 6000
feet.  The warning will be in effect until 23/10Z, which will allow
shift later tonight to decide whether the warning should be extended
or not.

Also of concern is precipitation tonight and Tuesday morning, not to
mention precipitation phase.  Local radars showed an area of
precipitation moving southeastward through New Mexico along and
behind the above mentioned cold front, with a few lightning strikes
indicated over, and near, northern Lea County.  Surface temperatures
were not that cold behind the front, but we should see readings
dropping into the mid 30s by 23/06Z in Lea County in particular.
Radar returns are probably extensive due to low level convergence
along/behind the front, coupled with lift in the mid levels seen on
Water Vapor imagery ahead of a compact shortwave trough over central
New Mexico, and the LFQ of a 140+kt h25 jet.  Expect this deep layer
lift to continue, but shift southeastward over the forecast area
overnight.  Model soundings, particularly the RUC13 and NAM12, are
indicating rain changing to snow around 23/06Z, with some snow
possibly accumulating over portions of Lea County and the
northwestern Permian Basin.  For now, will send an update for the
High Wind Warning, but will address precipitation in another update
later this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  43  28  50  /  60  40   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  30  52  /  50  40   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  47  25  52  /  10  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  52  32  55  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  44  28  53  /  10  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  42  24  45  /  10  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  45  25  49  /  60  30   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  41  15  48  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  46  26  50  /  30  40   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  48  28  51  /  30  40   0   0
WINK TX                    41  48  27  55  /  20  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.


&&

$$

05/67

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