Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 050342
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
942 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Decreased PoPs areawide as regional radars shows the main
precipitation moving east of the CWA. Still getting some light-
moderate sleet/snow across the lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin but this will continue to shift east over the next couple
hours. There is little to no indication that precip will redevelop
tonight so very little, if any, additional ice/snow accumulation
is expected. Conditions will remain icy overnight as overnight
with temps in the 20s. May finally see temps rise above freezing
by early-mid afternoon Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

The much-advertised cold front looks to have cleared KPEQ and KFST;
however, the colder surface air has lagged a bit. The 0 degC isotherm
looks to be running from just north of KCNM to about 20NM south of
KMAF to just south of KSJT. South of this line, we`re seeing some
very shallow and sheared convection, with somehow enough MLCAPE to
favor storm electrification. Have thus added TSRA as a TEMPO group
to KFST and KPEQ. North of the freezing line we`re seeing a
transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, with at times moderate
snow reported from KHOB and KCNM. Widespread IFR to at times LIFR
cigs are expected through the nighttime hours.  Precipitation will
transition to snow at all TAF sites this evening as the column
falls below freezing and with lift associated with a shortwave
trough passage beginning to diminish. By sunrise we expect the
precip to taper to flurries from west to east, and skies should
begin to transition from MVFR to SKC by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  34  22  46  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              21  33  23  45  /  40   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  37  22  48  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  38  29  49  /  50  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           23  35  25  48  /  30  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          15  32  21  42  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   19  34  21  46  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  37  19  47  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    21  34  23  46  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  21  34  24  45  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    24  35  23  47  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/27

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