Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 260000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015


Please see the 26/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.



VFR conditions will continue for a little while, with LIFR
forecasted at KMAF by 04Z, KHOB and KINK 07z-08Z, with TEMPO LIFR
warranted early Thursday morning at KPEQ and KFST. Other than KCMN
and KPEQ, a stout southerly wind will persist overnight, with wind
gusts AOA 25 kts possible. Around 16Z or so,LIFR/IFR conditions
will become VFR. May have to think about inserting TSRA at a
couple of locations after 00Z Friday...stay tuned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/

Potent upper level storm system across the intermountain west
will remain nearly stationary through the weekend. Swift
southwesterly flow aloft will develop ahead of this system with
shortwaves and upper jet energy arriving by tonight and
Thanksgiving day ahead of a northern stream cold front. A warm
Thanksgiving day is expected ahead of the cold front with a
slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms associated
with the aforementioned wave and jet.

The northern stream cold front is forecast to plunge southward
late Thursday night and Friday. This front will provide an
additional focus for rain and thunderstorms to increase these
periods with additional shortwave and jet energy continuing to
provide widespread large scale lift. Rainfall could become locally
heavy across the Permian Basin to the Davis Mountains in west
Texas these periods due to precipitable water values forecast to
be 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal.

Precipitation chances will remain high areawide Friday night
through Saturday night due to the stalled upper low and
associated jet, with additional shortwave energy riding up into
southwest Texas from the remains of tropical system "Sandra" from
Mexico. To complicate matters even further, a freezing to near
freezing surface air mass will be funneling south behind the cold
front these time periods and will support the threat for
significant freezing rain in the extreme northern Permian Basin...
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor
Friday night through at least Saturday morning. For this reason
have issued a Winter Storm Watch for these areas. Further south
it will be a close call and it could go either way with rain or
freezing rain possible across much of the southeast New Mexico
Plains and the remainder of the Permian Basin. Later shifts will
obviously monitor the potential need for expanding the watch to
other areas.

By Saturday afternoon and Saturday night precipitation will
continue across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico with
temperatures potentially rising above freezing. This far out,
there is also the potential for temperatures in portions of the
region to still be near freezing with freezing precipitation
possibly continuing. Later shifts will need to continue to monitor
the potential for expanding winter watches or warnings for west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.

By Sunday the flow aloft will become more zonal and remnant
tropical energy moves east into east Texas. Precipitation chances
will be on the decrease as the better moisture pulls east but the
potential for some light rain to linger in the eastern Permian

Beyond Sunday through early next week slowly moderating, but
still below normal temperatures are expected in zonal flow
aloft with mainly dry conditions expected. Another storm
may impact the region by next Wednesday.


NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.



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