Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 290125 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
825 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.UPDATE...
We have issued update for expiration of TOR watch 234.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tor watch 234 expired at 01Z and severe threat is now only confined
to the far Lower Trans Pecos. Rain is exiting in the east and
northeast too and have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for
Midland, Ector and Crane Co. and we may end up cancelling the
remainder before 11 PM. We have adjusted PoPs lower to reflect
current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Short-term convective threat is decreasing for TAFs, except FST.
Based on latest guidance there`s not too much support for
additional storms late tonight and for now have left short-term
TEMPO TSRA til 03Z-04Z. MVFR CIGS will likely redevelop late
tonight after convective winds dissipate with clearing skies Fri
after 21Z...earlier to the west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Storms are currently developing and moving across the area with some
storms becoming severe.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the whole
CWA.  There is an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere with CAPE
values up to 4000 J/kg in some areas.  Bulk shear values are also
around 35 kts or higher and mid-level lapse rates are not quite as
impressive as earlier but still good.  Shortwaves are also expected
to move over the area today at the base of an upper level trough
that is moving over the Upper Midwest.  Given these conditions,
expect thunderstorms to continue to develop and move across the CWA
through this evening into the overnight hours.  Some of these storms
may become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain
being the main threats although an isolated tornado is possible. The
GFS and ECMWF indicate heavy rain across the eastern half of the CWA
at 06z tonight but the NAM12 only has a little precipitation across
southern portions of Terrell County.  Decided to favor the GFS and
ECMWF and issued a Flash Flood Watch until 10z for the southeastern
Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. The precipitation is
expected to mostly be out of the area by 12z Friday.

The upper level trough will still be over the Upper Midwest on
Friday and a dryline will be across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos by Friday afternoon.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values
of 3000 to 4000 east of the dryline during the afternoon and
mid-level lapse rates of 8.5+ degrees C/km across most of the CWA.
Bulk shear values do not look as impressive with values only getting
up to 30 kts across a few areas with lesser values elsewhere.  Given
these conditions, thunderstorms with severe weather will be possible
again on Friday although do not expect widespread thunderstorm
development with the models only producing isolated convection.
Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm up to near normal with a
surface trough developing across southeast New Mexico and along/west
of the Upper Trans Pecos.

A cold front associated with the passing upper trough will move into
the area on Saturday.  Increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected along this front as lift over the area
increases.  Heavy rain may be a concern with this precipitation with
great moisture and lift present.  Temperatures will cool on Saturday
by about 10 degrees from the previous day behind the front with the
increase in cloud cover and precipitation.  Rain and storms will
remain possible across the higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a
result of the front.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain
cool as the surface ridge will be near the area.  Rain chances
will still be present but will significantly decrease Monday through
the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds over the region.
Temperatures will also increase to near normal values during this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  91  66  78  /  20  20  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              68  88  66  78  /  50  20  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                60  94  63  81  /  20  10  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  70  91  72  83  /  70  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  94  65  83  /  30  20  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  89  59  74  /  20  10  20  30
HOBBS NM                   62  90  61  75  /  20  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   53  89  56  80  /  20  20  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  89  67  80  /  30  20  50  50
ODESSA TX                  67  89  66  80  /  30  20  50  50
WINK TX                    66  95  68  83  /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 5 AM CDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Glasscock...Pecos...Reagan...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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