Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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935
FXUS64 KMAF 031111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud will continue to spread south over the area due
to convection over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Although isolated thunderstorms will be possible at most terminals
today, probability is too low to include.  Except for MVFR ceilings
perhaps affecting KMAF prior to 03/15Z, VFR conditions will
prevail.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Little has changed in the upper pattern over the last 24 hours with
an upper ridge still to the west nosing into the region and a broad
trough across the eastern U.S. A few showers and thunderstorms along
with an associated outflow boundary was moving south across the
Texas High Plains this morning. This is leftover from convection
yesterday evening across the TX Panhandle. Hi-Res models show the
boundary slowing down and stalling across the northern Permian
Basin this afternoon. This boundary along with another mid level
disturbance could lead to the development of a few showers and
thunderstorms over SE NM and the northern half of the Permian
Basin later today. Weak shear and moderate instability will keep
severe chances low so really only looking at locally heavy rain
and strong wind gusts with these storms. The 4th of July looks
pretty similar to today with a better chance of rain across the
higher terrain with a developing theta-e axis. Will also need to
monitor for lingering outflow boundaries left over from convection
tonight.

The upper ridge flattens early next week allowing a cold front to
move south across the Southern Plains. Rain chances will increase
quite a bit with this system. Heavy rain will also be possible
with slow storm motions and climbing PWATs.

Will again go slightly below the lowest temperature guidance for the
Permian Basin today due to a continued wet ground. Temperatures
will continue to stay mostly below normal through the weekend as
moisture and clouds begin to increase. Even cooler conditions
arrive with the precip Tuesday. After that, look for the ridge to
take hold, temperatures to heat up, and chances for rain to
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  72  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    93  69  93  71  /  20  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      91  72  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  67  90  69  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              81  65  86  67  /  10  20  40  30
HOBBS NM                       89  65  90  65  /  20  20  10  20
MARFA TX                       88  65  87  65  /  20  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  70  92  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        94  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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