Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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960
FXUS64 KMAF 252324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms currently ongoing this evening are the primary
concern this forecast period. Expect storms to continue for at
least the next few hours, thus have included mention at all
terminals. Erratic gusty wind and heavy rain could result in
brief MVFR conditions, with VFR conditions expected outside of
storms. FST may see storms beyond 06Z, though have not included
mention at this time. Some low clouds could also develop around
daybreak Friday, will defer to later issuances for potential
inclusion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Morning observations from across the area showed a weak frontal
boundary draped across the northwest Texas Permian Basin and
extending back into Eddy County New Mexico and northern Culberson
County Texas. Primary indications are that this boundary is in
part serving as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development that we presently see on radar. As we progress into
the late afternoon and evening, we will see an increase in
coverage with these storms.

With the subtropical ridge being located over the southeast U.S.,
deeper moisture and a series of mid level disturbances have continued
to stream into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico along the
western periphery of the ridge. With this ridge edging slightly
further westward today, the best chances for rain today should be
over southwest Texas across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, extending
up into southeast New Mexico and the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Afternoon NAM CAPE values of 1200-1700 J/KG along the aforementioned
frontal boundary suggest that storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening could be marginally severe, with the main
threat being wind.

There could be a slight lull in precipitation this weekend as the
subtropical ridge slides further east. However, the overall trend
is for rain chances to continue across the area next week. This
should allow for fire weather concerns to remain at a minimum
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  64  82 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  86  64  86 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  81  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  91  69  93 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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