Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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752
FXUS64 KMAF 271947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING WAS 1.28 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE CWA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.  THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SHOULD NOT WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  91  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    67  94  68  96  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      71  93  71  93  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  91  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  87  66  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       65  91  67  92  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                       55  86  55  88  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      68  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        68  95  70  98  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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