Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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260
FXUS64 KMAF 011117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
517 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another night in the soup, w/sfc obs showing LIFR conditions all
terminals except KPEQ, which is IFR at the moment.  Skies were slow
to improve over the last 24 hrs, if at all, a/the models doing a
poor job handling this.  Models want to scatter things out to VFR a
little too optimistically.  W/sfc flow backing slightly over the
next 24 hours, this is doubtful.  Cigs should improve somewhat
today...but we`ll keep all terminals at least MVFR or lower.
Stratus/fog redevelops after sunset, returning conditions to
IFR/LIFR most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most
locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Skies
remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog
across the area.  A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9 am
this morning for the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The drizzle and fog are expected to clear out by
this afternoon.  Temperatures are expected to warm up slightly today
but will still remain well below normal with cloudy skies across at
least the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA.  The models did not handle
yesterday`s high temperatures well so went below guidance on today`s
highs for at least the eastern half of the CWA.

An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper
flow being westerly to southwesterly.  The upper trough will get
closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase.  Low level
moisture will also increase across the area tonight so rain chances
will increase tonight.  There is a slight chance of freezing rain
and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of
southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures
across this area drop to near or below freezing.  High temperatures
on Monday are expected to increase slightly from those the previous
day but will still remain cool as skies will be cloudy with a chance
of rain in the afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up significantly
on Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the area with
elevated westerly winds contributing to downslope warming.  There is
a slight chance of rain for locations generally along and west of
the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday.  The elongated upper trough will
be about to move over the area on Wednesday with a cold front
pushing through the area.  Temperatures will once again plummet into
the 30s and 40s for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
behind the front.  Precipitation chances will increase across the
CWA on Wednesday with snow possible across the northeast Permian
Basin, rain possible further south, and thunderstorms possible
across the Big Bend area and Presidio Valley.  Precipitation amounts
on the GFS and ECMWF Wednesday afternoon look to be quite
impressive, especially along and south of the Pecos River.
Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and move southward
on Thursday as temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the
whole CWA.  Warmer and drier conditions are expected heading into
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry.


&&

$$

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