Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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693
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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