Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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172
FXUS64 KMAF 020350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
950 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued update to expire the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
across areas except the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest observations have shown that winds have decreased below
advisory and warning criteria in all places except the Guadalupe
Mountains so have allowed the advisories and warnings in these
areas to expire. Due to the decreasing winds, the Blowing Dust
Advisory has also been allowed to expire. Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory and warning criteria in these areas
through the night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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