Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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412
FXUS64 KMAF 190910
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

We will finally see a break from the widespread 100`s we have had
over the last few days.

An MCS that developed over SW OK overnight is moving south-southwest
across the TX Southern High Plains. These storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Some locations east of
Lubbock have received a couple inches of rain already and similar
rainfall may be expected across the Western Low Rolling Plains
before long. Hi-res models show this convection continuing to
evolve and push across our area this morning. We also can`t rule
out damaging winds and maybe even some hail given high instability
and strong shear over the area. Forecast updates are likely as we
go through this morning.

The large upper ridge continues to shift into the Plains while
flattening out. This will allow for deeper easterly flow across TX
and an increase in moisture. We will see afternoon highs fall about
5 to 7 degrees beginning today with even cooler temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak inverted trough moving
underneath the ridge will cross early this week bringing more clouds
and possibly some isolated storms. Hotter temperatures arrive
midweek as the ridge reasserts itself over the area. With each
progressive run, models have shown a weaker upper high late in
the week which should keep temperatures closer to normal.
Unfortunately, any precipitation looks to remain out of our area
through at least the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  91  68 /  60  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       99  68  95  67 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  74 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  69  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  68  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          89  60  86  60 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         95  71  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           97  71  95  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29

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