Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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885
FXUS64 KMAF 161729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Currently have SW winds increasing
across most areas and expect gusts to continue through early
evening. High winds across the Guadalupe Mountains may result in
pockets of turbulence near this area through this afternoon.
Otherwise, winds will diminish after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Potent upper level storm system centered near the Four Corners
region will barrel eastward today toward the Central Plains by
this evening. Dryline currently across the eastern slopes of the
mountains will surge eastward today as mid level flow increases
and becomes more westerly. Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin today ahead of the
dryline. The bigger concern will be the wind as strong winds are
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions expected
across much of the plains of southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas. A High Wind Warning continues today for the Guadalupe Mountains
and a Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the southeast
New Mexico Plains and much of west Texas. Weak Pacific cold front
associated with the upper system will move southeast through the
forecast area tonight. Will continue the slight chance to chance
of thunderstorms tonight across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos where the deeper moisture and low level
convergence will be maximized for the longest period of time
along the front.

In the wake of this system southwesterly flow aloft will return
Sunday. This should allow the dryline to surge again toward the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos by late afternoon and
then retreat toward the mountains again Sunday night. Will continue
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos near the sloshing dryline Sunday and Sunday
night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week for most
areas due to an endless series of Pacific storm systems tracking
east across the Rockies and western Plains. These upper level
systems will interact with a moist and unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some of the medium range
guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional heavy rain
and flash flooding possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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