Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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827
FXUS64 KMAF 022358
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening across SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... and Northern Permian Basin. Wind gusts to
45 kts possible with these storms and MVFR vsbys due to brief
heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region.  A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week.  The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides.  The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.

On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon.  Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there.  PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal.  This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding.  It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash Flood Watch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region.  As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time.  From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
320
FXUS64 KMAF 021849
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region.  A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week.  The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides.  The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.

On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon.  Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there.  PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal.  This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding.  It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash Flood Watch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region.  As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time.  From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  98  75  97  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                    71  99  71 100  /  30  40  40  10
DRYDEN TX                      74 102  75 100  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               75  98  74  98  /  10  10  10  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  89  68  92  /  30  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                       69  94  69  96  /  30  30  40  10
MARFA TX                       60  88  62  88  /  30  40  10  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  99  74 100  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                      73  98  75 100  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                        75 101  75 102  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/67
942
FXUS64 KMAF 021547
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. Forecast soundings develop a widespread 4-5 kft
agl cu field early this afternoon, and a 4-8 kft agl cu field near
the end of the fcst pd. Convection will be possible this afternoon
and overnight, mainly SE NM under the theta-e ridge axis.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
813
FXUS64 KMAF 021112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours,
except for temporary MVFR visibility at KCNM with any TSRA after
02/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  74  98  75  /  20  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    99  73  97  72  /  20  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  70  88  69  /  20  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                       95  70  97  70  /  10  10  30  40
MARFA TX                       91  65  91  65  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                       103  76 102  75  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
134
FXUS64 KMAF 020824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  74  98  75  /  20  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    99  73  97  72  /  20  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  70  88  69  /  20  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                       95  70  97  70  /  10  10  30  40
MARFA TX                       91  65  91  65  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                       103  76 102  75  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
581
FXUS64 KMAF 020539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 05Z, convection was moving out of extreme southeast New Mexico
into the northwest Permian Basin with trailing stratiform
precipitation extending west of HOB. Occasional thunder and gusty
winds are possible near HOB through 08Z along with occasional
MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. Light rain is possiblenearly
as far west as CNM.

Other than HOB, area terminals will see VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas, particularly near
the mountains Sunday afternoon and evening, though probabilities
are presently not significant enough for inclusion in area TAFs.
Thunderstorms will be more likely at HOB and CNM. Except near
convection, winds will generally be south to southwest at less
than 12 knots through Sunday evening with gusts approaching 20
knots Sunday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
212
FXUS64 KMAF 020207 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Trimming rain chances across most of area. Continuing chance of
rain mainly southeast New Mexico into the northern Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With loss of daytime heating, most shower and thunderstorm
activity across southwest Texas is dissipating. Modest low level
jet beginning to kick in. Short term models suggest that some elevated
instability will also persist over southeast New Mexico and
northern Permian basin for the next few hours. Low level jet and
elevated instability should allow convection to continue and
possibly expand from southeast New Mexico into the northern
Permian basin through late evening. With very little shear, area
of storms should move slowly eastward. Slow movement suggests
locally heavy rain is possible, especially in parts of southern
Lea County where some training appears to be starting along
outflowboundary from earlier convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm
outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered
thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on
latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention
thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention
however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due
to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is
expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night.
More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  98  74  99  /  10  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                    71  97  73  98  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74 100  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  99  74 101  /  10  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  69  90  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  96  72  96  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       61  91  62  91  /  10  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 100  /  10  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  75 100  /  10  20  10  10
WINK TX                        75 103  76 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
608
FXUS64 KMAF 012321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm
outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered
thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on
latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention
thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention
however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due
to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is
expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night.
More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/33
199
FXUS64 KMAF 011915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  98  74  99  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                    71  97  73  98  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74 100  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  99  74 101  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  69  90  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  96  72  96  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       61  91  62  91  /  20  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 100  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  75 100  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        75 103  76 104  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/33
504
FXUS64 KMAF 011714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast new Mexico and west
Texas terminals, for the most part.  Scattered thunderstorms will
develop over the region this afternoon and evening, and include TSRA
at all but KFST and KPEQ where probabilities appear less.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
023
FXUS64 KMAF 011002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN mid cloud deck at PEQ is all that remains with winds less
than 10kts. Winds will increase around 23Z from SE, possibly near
15kts. Have opted to include a PROB30 group for HOB after 23z. The
possibility for outflow boundaries from anticipated storms to the
n and e of MAF may result in scattered SHRA/TSRA farther w,
including MAF area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast, as persistence
rules.  WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern
seaboard.  At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly
flow into the area.

W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer
theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones.  -SHRA developed
on the boundary that moved into the region earlier, w/current radar
showing a few weak echoes over the Stockton Plateau near the
boundary.  Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge
westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier
activity, current POPs look justified.  Main concerns continue to be
gusty winds, as forecast soundings maintain a dry subcloud layer.
Best chances should develop west and north into Monday w/the richer
theta-e, before the ring-of-fire pattern resumes as the upper ridge
builds SE back into the region.

For temps, w/the ridge over the Four Corners, today looks to be the
coolest day this forecast, if one can call 98F at KMAF cool.  After
today, models depict a progressive pattern of shortwaves thru the
flow north of the ridge, which will nudge the ridge back SE to its
proper place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/model 1000-
500mb thicknesses increasing into the extended for another week of
triple-digit temps.  Climatologically, temps begin coming down at
KMAF on 8/10, so this week`s temps are par for the course.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
636
FXUS64 KMAF 010845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast, as persistence
rules.  WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern
seaboard.  At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly
flow into the area.

W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer
theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones.  -SHRA developed
on the boundary that moved into the region earlier, w/current radar
showing a few weak echoes over the Stockton Plateau near the
boundary.  Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge
westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier
activity, current POPs look justified.  Main concerns continue to be
gusty winds, as forecast soundings maintain a dry subcloud layer.
Best chances should develop west and north into Monday w/the richer
theta-e, before the ring-of-fire pattern resumes as the upper ridge
builds SE back into the region.

For temps, w/the ridge over the Four Corners, today looks to be the
coolest day this forecast, if one can call 98F at KMAF cool.  After
today, models depict a progressive pattern of shortwaves thru the
flow north of the ridge, which will nudge the ridge back SE to its
proper place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/model 1000-
500mb thicknesses increasing into the extended for another week of
triple-digit temps.  Climatologically, temps begin coming down at
KMAF on 8/10, so this week`s temps are par for the course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  72  99  74  /  30  20  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                    99  72  99  74  /  10  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                     102  76 101  74  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  72  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  68  89  71  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       95  68  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  61  90  61  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        98  72  99  74  /  20  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                      96  73 100  74  /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                       101  73 102  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/44
886
FXUS64 KMAF 010539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isold -SHRA/-TSRA near INK/PEQ/FST, but not expected to impact
sites. Otherwise there is a mostly BKN mid cloud deck at TAF sites
that will decrease thru the night. Winds gusting in a few wrn
sites, but will diminish and not much wind until around 23Z when
SE wind will increase, possibly near 15kts. For now have omitted
mention of TSRA this PM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
934
FXUS64 KMAF 010241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Expanded isolated thunderstorms into western Permian Basin and
upper trans-Pecos through midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continued to develop over the
central and eastern Permian Basin. Outflow boundary pushing into
the Permian Basin from the north may provide additional lift
capable of sustaining at least isolated thunderstorm development
for the next couple of hours. HRRR model suggests that this
activity is likely to wind down shortly after midnight as the
atmosphere stabilizes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A weak cool front
across the extreme northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
Plains is forecast to slowly shift south and west overnight toward
the central Permian Basin northwestward toward the Pecos River
near Carlsbad. A few thunderstorms were forming near the Lubbock
area and were generating more boundaries that were pushing into
the northern Permian Basin but these features do not appear like
they will spark significant additional storms overnight that would
impact any of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop areawide Saturday with boundaries still lingering but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Generally east to southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  95  75  98  /  20  30  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    73  98  70  99  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  75 101  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  69  91  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                       68  94  69  95  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       61  89  63  89  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  97  74  99  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                      75  97  75  98  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                        75 100  74 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
681
FXUS64 KMAF 312255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A weak cool front
across the extreme northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
Plains is forecast to slowly shift south and west overnight toward
the central Permian Basin northwestward toward the Pecos River
near Carlsbad. A few thunderstorms were forming near the Lubbock
area and were generating more boundaries that were pushing into
the northern Permian Basin but these features do not appear like
they will spark significant additional storms overnight that would
impact any of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop areawide Saturday with boundaries still lingering but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Generally east to southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67
438
FXUS64 KMAF 311913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  95  75  98  /  20  30  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    73  98  70  99  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  75 101  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  69  91  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                       68  94  69  95  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       61  89  63  89  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  97  74  99  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                      75  97  75  98  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                        75 100  74 101  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67
681
FXUS64 KMAF 311712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue with a few isolated storms possible this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
106
FXUS64 KMAF 311105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today.  Thunderstorms will be
isolated, and likely not close enough to any terminals to include in
the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PoPs and temperatures will continue to be modulated by the
subtropical ridge and the mid level theta-e ridge entrained within
said ridge. Today, the subtropical ridge axis will be to the north
of the CWFA as will be the theta-e ridge, while dropping se from the
ne-n, nearing the far ern CWFA. Anecdotal observations indicate
that convection also tends to develop in the mid level theta-e
gradient and there may be a convective boundary INVOF nrn CWFA
late today. As such will opt to reflect isold PoPs n and far e
INVOF said features. The subtropical ridge amplifies to the nw Sat
PM with indications of a weak shrtwv trof within the nw flow
aloft. This will favor the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther s
into the n-ne CWFA and worthy of scattered PoPs, which are already
in the forecast. A similar set-up for Sunday, even though the
ridge flattens some. Mtn PoPs will continue to be suppressed thru
Sunday with only isold tstms possible. Outside of temps being
convectively cooled (clouds/precip/outflow) across the n-e it will
still be hot thru the weekend, mostly above normal temps will
persist. Perusal of GEFS ensemble 85h,7h temp data (+2 to +3
standard deviations) also supports above normal temps. On Mon/Tue
there will be a slight uptick in PoPs across SE NM/Upper Trans,
but thereafter there is a good chance that the subtropical ridge
will move east as a trof slowly deepens along the NW coast,
ensuring hot wx will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  75  97  75  /  10  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     101  76 100  76  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              87  66  91  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  95  70  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                       89  62  90  65  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  73  97  74  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                      99  74  97  75  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                       102  74 100  75  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
105
FXUS64 KMAF 310741
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PoPs and temperatures will continue to be modulated by the
subtropical ridge and the mid level theta-e ridge entrained within
said ridge. Today, the subtropical ridge axis will be to the north
of the CWFA as will be the theta-e ridge, while dropping se from the
ne-n, nearing the far ern CWFA. Anecdotal observations indicate
that convection also tends to develop in the mid level theta-e
gradient and there may be a convective boundary INVOF nrn CWFA
late today. As such will opt to reflect isold PoPs n and far e
INVOF said features. The subtropical ridge amplifies to the nw Sat
PM with indications of a weak shrtwv trof within the nw flow
aloft. This will favor the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther s
into the n-ne CWFA and worthy of scattered PoPs, which are already
in the forecast. A similar set-up for Sunday, even though the
ridge flattens some. Mtn PoPs will continue to be suppressed thru
Sunday with only isold tstms possible. Outside of temps being
convectively cooled (clouds/precip/outflow) across the n-e it will
still be hot thru the weekend, mostly above normal temps will
persist. Perusal of GEFS ensemble 85h,7h temp data (+2 to +3
standard deviations) also supports above normal temps. On Mon/Tue
there will be a slight uptick in PoPs across SE NM/Upper Trans,
but thereafter there is a good chance that the subtropical ridge
will move east as a trof slowly deepens along the NW coast,
ensuring hot wx will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  75  97  75  /  10  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     101  76 100  76  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              87  66  91  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  95  70  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                       89  62  90  65  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  73  97  74  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                      99  74  97  75  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                       102  74 100  75  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
794
FXUS64 KMAF 310400
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
ridging aloft. Theta-e ridge is forecast to stay well NW of the
area, so chances of convection at terminals remain slim. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late Friday morning,
w/bases initially 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
762
FXUS64 KMAF 302119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
late Friday morning, w/bases initially 4-7 kft agl.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
227
FXUS64 KMAF 301937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of surface boundaries hanging around northern portions of
the region this afternoon with cu developing near these
boundaries in the Central Permian Basin and also Lea county. With
continued heating, could see some isolated convection popping up
at some point across these areas then diminishing after sunset.
Temperatures near a degree or two cooler today than yesterday with
highs generally in the 90s most areas. A subtropical ridge slowly
retrograding overhead today will continue westward through Friday,
becoming somewhat anchored over NM this weekend. Much of the same
expected Friday with highest rain chances remaining north of the
CWA in NM and TX Panhandle. SE NM will remain on the edge of the
monsoonal activity so not entirely sure this area won`t see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening.

Northerly flow aloft develops by Saturday, potentially bringing rain
chances back to the region as upper weaknesses slide around the east
side of the ridge. Through the weekend, highest rain chances will
likely remain across the eastern half of the FA although could see
some afternoon mountain convection as well. Monday and beyond,
forecast guidance differ slightly in the location of the upper ridge
with the GFS keeping it centered over NM and the ECMWF farther
southwest. Either way, models not showing much in the way of QPF so
will continue with a mostly dry forecast other than some potential
for mountain convection each afternoon. Above normal temps will
continue through the forecast period, although not quite as hot as
we have been seeing this last week or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  76 100  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  87  68  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  94  69  95  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                       64  88  64  90  /  10   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  98  74  97  /  10   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                      74  98  75  97  /  10   0  10  20
WINK TX                        74  99  74 100  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
093
FXUS64 KMAF 301704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, but
probabilities are too low to include at any terminal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
783
FXUS64 KMAF 301104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions areawide through the period.  There will be a
chance of thunderstorms, especially at KHOB and KCNM, but
probabilities are too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
First period pops.

Already have showers kicking up across the NE Permian Basin and
this could be a trend for today so expanded isolated pops across
SE NM and the Permian Basin.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
539
FXUS64 KMAF 301019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Already have showers kicking up across the NE Permian Basin and
this could be a trend for today so expanded isolated pops across
SE NM and the Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
036
FXUS64 KMAF 300816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
107
FXUS64 KMAF 300554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show convection has largely
diminished across the area. VFR conditions will prevail next 24
hours in return flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late Thursday morning,
w/initial bases 4.5-7 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
950
FXUS64 KMAF 300226 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
926 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Reduced rain chances across western zones including mountains.
Holding on to slight chances over mountains and Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers winding down across area with loss of daytime heating. A
few stubborn showers holding on in Permian Basin aided by
converging outflow boundaries. Should see most shower activity
dissipate by midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show another night of convection
on tap, mainly SE NM, although many boundaries abound elsewhere.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a
widespread cu field by late Thursday morning, w/initial bases
4.5-6 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /  20   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
668
FXUS64 KMAF 292242
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show another night of convection
on tap, mainly SE NM, although many boundaries abound elsewhere.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a
widespread cu field by late Thursday morning, w/initial bases
4.5-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
094
FXUS64 KMAF 292032 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /   0  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/99
634
FXUS64 KMAF 291924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /   0  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/33
095
FXUS64 KMAF 291724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms for CNM this afternoon through
tonight. Winds will become elevated with some gusts out of the
southeast this afternoon before weakening late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
First period pops.

DISCUSSION...
Expected nocturnal storms to die out by sunrise but these are
continuing over the far west down to the Big Bend. Have updated
forecast to begin storms earlier.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
901
FXUS64 KMAF 291159
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
659 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expected nocturnal storms to die out by sunrise but these are
continuing over the far west down to the Big Bend. Have updated
forecast to begin storms earlier.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for CNM today and
tonight. Winds will be light this morning and somewhat variable
then become elevated out of the southeast this afternoon before
weakening later this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  74  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  72  98  72  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  77 100  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  73  97  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  71  89  70  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       98  72  96  70  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  60  89  59  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  75  98  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     100  75  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       103  76 101  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
301
FXUS64 KMAF 291109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for CNM today and
tonight. Winds will be light this morning and somewhat variable
then become elevated out of the southeast this afternoon before
weakening later this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
204
FXUS64 KMAF 290818
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  74  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  72  98  72  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  77 100  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  73  97  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  71  89  70  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       98  72  96  70  /  10   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  60  89  59  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  75  98  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     100  75  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       103  76 101  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
555
FXUS64 KMAF 290505
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Convection will be possible invof KCNM over the next few hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under upper-lvl ridging. A widespread cu field is forecast
to develop late morning Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
662
FXUS64 KMAF 282134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. A widespread cu field is forecast to develop
late morning Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
601
FXUS64 KMAF 281919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  98  73  97  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    72 100  68  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  74 101  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74  99  72  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       71  97  70  96  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                       63  91  60  90  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  99  71  97  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      74  99  73  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        76 103  74 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33/33
511
FXUS64 KMAF 281710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...As of 12:10 PM CDT Tuesday...persistence rules. Other
than aftn/evening isolated/scattered convection in the mtns and
adjacent Plains VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. All
convection is expected to remain south and west of the TAF sites.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33
377
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a S to SE wind across the area. May be a few
afternoon storms vicinity of CNM... PEQ... or FST but did not
include in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the
east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains.  As the
trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this
weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region.  Ridge remains in
this location out through 240hrs.

Yesterday models were too eager to start cooling temps aloft but it
turned out to be the hottest day of the year at MAF with 103 degrees.
Pecos hit 106 and Wink hit 107 degrees. Therefore have bumped up
temps slightly for today and stayed to the warm side of guidance.
Part of the reason yesterday was so hot was because morning lows
only dropped to around 80 degrees in some locations. Will go
slightly over guidance again Wednesday as will have to see some
actual cooling before start lowering temps much. Overnight lows
should remain unseasonably warm. By Thursday 90s should become
more prevalent and continue through the weekend.

Best chance of storms will be over and adjacent to the mountains again
this afternoon and evening as good low level moisture... daytime
heating... and orographic lift combine.  A few storms over the same
locations on Wednesday with not much convection expected Thursday and
Friday.  With the upper ridge centered to the west potential exists for
shortwaves to come down into the area on NW flow and develop precip.
Currently best chance of rain for the Permian Basin looks to be
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
029
FXUS64 KMAF 280811
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the
east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains.  As the
trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this
weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region.  Ridge remains in
this location out through 240hrs.

Yesterday models were too eager to start cooling temps aloft but it
turned out to be the hottest day of the year at MAF with 103 degrees.
Pecos hit 106 and Wink hit 107 degrees. Therefore have bumped up
temps slightly for today and stayed to the warm side of guidance.
Part of the reason yesterday was so hot was because morning lows
only dropped to around 80 degrees in some locations. Will go
slightly over guidance again Wednesday as will have to see some
actual cooling before start lowering temps much. Overnight lows
should remain unseasonably warm. By Thursday 90s should become
more prevalent and continue through the weekend.

Best chance of storms will be over and adjacent to the mountains again
this afternoon and evening as good low level moisture... daytime
heating... and orographic lift combine.  A few storms over the same
locations on Wednesday with not much convection expected Thursday and
Friday.  With the upper ridge centered to the west potential exists for
shortwaves to come down into the area on NW flow and develop precip.
Currently best chance of rain for the Permian Basin looks to be
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  76  99  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   103  73 101  71  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     103  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              101  74  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              93  70  91  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       99  72  96  70  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       92  63  90  61  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       101  75  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     101  75  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       105  76 102  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
868
FXUS64 KMAF 280519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will prevail through the
next 24 hours at all TAF sites.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84
359
FXUS64 KMAF 280000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar shows convection persisting a little longer than
previously anticipated, as triple-digit temps carry over into the
1st period. We`ll do a quick update to expand isolated coverage
into the evening hours, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  78 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    75 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/44
760
FXUS64 KMAF 272247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KPEQ through 28/01Z, but
probability is too low to include.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west Texas terminals
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              72  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        77 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
160
FXUS64 KMAF 271916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              72  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        77 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
299
FXUS64 KMAF 271646
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1146 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:45 AM CDT Monday...Expect VFR conditions to
continue with low level southeast flow. As of now...would expect
any convection that develops to be over the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns remaining south and west of the TAF sites.

However...there is a caveat. Water Vapor imagery is indc a weak
wave moving WNW towards the CWA along with a mid level thetae
ridge. High resolution models do show convection reaching the
Permian Basin this aftn. However...with satl imagery not showing
any CU and no sfc boundary in the area to serve as a focus will
continue to leave out convection in the TAFs.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49
576
FXUS64 KMAF 271102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals due to an upper ridge of high
pressure over the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the mountains this afternoon and this evening but should remain
west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will continue to be the dominate wx feature
this week. An upper trough moving across from the NW will displace
the center of the ridge to the east and then it will build back to
the west as the trough passes. By late in the week the center of
the ridge will shift to the 4 corners region.

Near persistence is going to be hard to beat today... expect another
hot day with widespread readings of 100 degrees or more.  However as
the center of upper ridge will no longer be on top of the area
should see a slight decrease in temps the next couple of days as
850mb temps begin to fall.  Look for a minimum of temps being mid
week before warming again toward next weekend.

Afternoon and evening storms over the mountains and adjacent plains
still looks to be a good bet again today as models continue to break
out precip in this location.  Some over the mountains again Tuesday
but with less coverage.  The upper pattern switch to NW flow aloft
as ridge shifts west would be more favorable for bringing precip
down into the Permian Basin.  Right now models are not developing
much precip from Wednesday on but some do hint of a possibility of a
MCS coming down into the NE late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


12/72
041
FXUS64 KMAF 270736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will continue to be the dominate wx feature
this week. An upper trough moving across from the NW will displace
the center of the ridge to the east and then it will build back to
the west as the trough passes. By late in the week the center of
the ridge will shift to the 4 corners region.

Near persistence is going to be hard to beat today... expect another
hot day with widespread readings of 100 degrees or more.  However as
the center of upper ridge will no longer be on top of the area
should see a slight decrease in temps the next couple of days as
850mb temps begin to fall.  Look for a minimum of temps being mid
week before warming again toward next weekend.

Afternoon and evening storms over the mountains and adjacent plains
still looks to be a good bet again today as models continue to break
out precip in this location.  Some over the mountains again Tuesday
but with less coverage.  The upper pattern switch to NW flow aloft
as ridge shifts west would be more favorable for bringing precip
down into the Permian Basin.  Right now models are not developing
much precip from Wednesday on but some do hint of a possibility of a
MCS coming down into the NE late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  76  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                   104  71 102  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     104  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              102  74  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              94  68  92  68  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       99  70  98  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       92  61  90  60  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       101  75 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                     101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       105  75 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72
880
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals underneath a ridge. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon and this
evening but should remain west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms this evening will likely stay west of all
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickness/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickness/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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