Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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179
FXUS64 KMAF 301903
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  95  71  98 /   0  10  30  20
Dryden                         74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  72  99 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                          67  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          62  86  63  89 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12

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