Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242304

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
504 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015


See 00z aviation discussion below.



Winds will generally be out of the south with elevated winds this
evening and tomorrow afternoon for FST and MAF. IFR ceilings are
possible at MAF beginning around 06z tonight and dissipating
around 17z Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/

Potent upper level storm system digging along the northwest United
States coast is forecast to move inland into the intermountain
west overnight and then remain nearly stationary through the
weekend. Swift southwesterly flow aloft will develop ahead of
this system with shortwaves and upper jet energy arriving by
Wednesday night and Thanksgiving day ahead of a northern stream
cold front. A warm Wednesday and Thanksgiving day is expected
with the chance for showers and thunderstorms mentioned by
Wednesday night and Thanksgiving day in association with the
aforementioned waves.

The northern stream cold front is forecast to plunge southward
late Thursday night and Friday. This front will provide an
additional focus for rain and thunderstorms to increase these
periods with additional shortwave energy continuing to provide
widespread large scale lift. Rainfall could become locally heavy
across the northern Permian Basin these periods due to
precipitable water values forecast to be 3 to 4 standard
deviations above normal.

Precipitation chances will remain high areawide Friday night
and Saturday due to the stalled upper low and associated jet,
with additional shortwave energy riding up into southwest Texas
from the remains of tropical system "Sandra" from Mexico. To
complicate things even further, a near freezing surface airmass
will be funneling south these time periods and may support
freezing rain in addition to rain across southeast New Mexico,
the northern Permian Basin and possibly the Guadalupe and Davis
mountains Friday night through Saturday night. This far out,
freezing temperatures look like a close call and is too early to
tell whether this could turn into a significant storm for any
portions of the forecast area. For now, will address uncertainty
with a Special Weather Statement for west Texas and southeast New

By Saturday night the flow aloft will become more zonal as the
upper low finally begins to push further east across the northern
and central Rockies and remnant tropical energy moves east
into east Texas. Precipitation chances will be on the decrease as
the better moisture pulls east but the potential for some light
freezing rain and or rain may linger.

Beyond Saturday night through early next week slowly moderating,
but still below normal temperatures,, are expected in zonal flow
aloft with mainly dry conditions expected.





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